Most U.S. combat troops could be out of Iraq by the first quarter of 2008 under the "way forward" envisioned by the high-profile panel.

BY MIKE ALLEN/WASHINGTON

The long-awaited report by a commission headed by former Secretary of State James Baker gives a bleak assessment of the trajectory in Iraq and suggests that most U.S. combat troops should be withdrawn in the next 16 months, according to excerpts provided to TIME. Baker presented the report to President Bush this morning. "The situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating," the report's executive summary says. "There is no path that can guarantee success, but the prospects can be improved."

The White House has said the President will consider the report's recomendations along with an administration review and advice from Congress, and has promised significant changes in strategy. They're needed, according to Baker. "If the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences will be severe," the report continues. "A slide toward chaos could trigger the collapse of Iraq's government and a humanitarian catastrophe. Neighboring countries could intervene. Sunni-Shia clashes could spread while Al Qaeda could win a propaganda victory and expend its base of operations. The global standing of the United States could be diminished. Americans could be become more polarized."

Perhaps the most controversial passage envisions a rapid drawdown of U.S. troops. "The primary mission of U.S. forces in Iraq should evolve to one of supporting the Iraqi army, which would take over primary responsibility for combat operations," the report says. "By the first quarter of 2008, subject to unexpected developments in the security situation on the ground, all combat bridges not necessary for force protection could be out of Iraq."

The President met in the Cabinet Room with Baker and the co-chairman of the congressionally formed Iraq Study Group, former Rep. Lee Hamilton. The President was flanked by Baker and Hamilton as he told reporters that the report "will be taken very seriously by this administration" and that the White House "will act on it in a timely fashion."

"This report gives a very tough assessment of the situation in Iraq," Bush said. "It is a
report that brings some really very interesting proposals." He also urged Congress to take it seriously. "While they won't agree with every proposal, and we probably won't agree with every proposal, it nevertheless is an opportunity to come together and to work together on this important issue," he said. "The country, in my judgment, is tired of pure political bickering that happens in Washington. And they understand that on this important issue of war and peace it is best for our country to work together."

Baker and Hamilton write in an introduction that all options have not been exhausted, and contend that it's still possible to pursue different policies that could give Iraq an opportunity for a better future. They say the report makes clear that the Iraqi government and people also must act to achieve a stable and hopeful future. They acknowledge that their recommendations will require "a tremendous amount of political will and cooperation" between the executive and legislative branches, and say that success "depends on unity of the American people in a time of political polarization." They call for "broad sustained consensus," and say the aim of the report is to move the country in that direction.

The report calls on the administration to "immediately" launch a "new diplomatic offensive" to build international consensus for stability in Iraq and the region. The report says that every country with an interest in Iraq, and key states in the region, should form a "support group" to reinforce security and national reconciliation within Iraq. As expected, Baker and Hamilton contend that the U.S. cannot achieve its goals in the Middle East unless it deals with the Israeli-Arab conflict and regional instability. "We need a renewed and sustained commitment to comprehensive peace plan on all fronts," the panelists write.

Baker and Hamilton also call for continued economic, political and military support for Afghanistan, including resources that may become available as combat forces are moved out of Iraq. The report adds that the U.S. "must adjust its role" to encourage the Iraqi people to take control of their country, and that the Iraq government should accelerate responsibility for security by increasing the number and quality of Iraqi army brigades. It's clear the Iraqi government will need U.S. assistance for some time to come especially in carrying out new security responsibilities, the report says. But the panelists say the U.S. "must not make open-ended commitments to keep large numbers of troops deployed in Iraq." That will be welcome news for the President, the military and Congress. However, that is certainly easier said than done.