Why the US and China are destined to be Allies...

Anyone who still thinks that the invasion of iraq was a good idea is either a:a charter member of AIPAC b: so deluded and unobservant that all of his/her opinions should be treated as ravings than reason.

I'm also curious about the mincemeat-making arguments that are pro-Iraq.

Also, "frontier integrating power"? Japan isn't one? Which lands fit the bill, according to mr Barnett?
Does he, ahem, consider the US and Europe to be "countries willing to actively try to bring countries outside the core into the club of rich nations that play by an established set of fairly transparent rules"?

If so, I kind of missed that going on, the "being transparent and making others rich" part. I'm not seeing it.

While it sounds nice in theory, Barnett's suggestion of a US-China alliance is rather complicated in practice, because it will require a fairly comprehensive cultural/political shift in both nations. The US must either sacrifice its international democratic ambitions or China must democratize. Also, the deeply ingrained mutual suspicion will have to be overcome. In China, there are generations of citizens who have been bred to fear and resent the west. This is true through all layers of society and one suspects is deeply indoctrinated in the military.

Effectively, Barnett suggests a means of passing the torch of global power and leadership from the US to China in a relationship that he believes should somehow resemble the US-British relationship of the past century. However, he ignores the deep cultural and ethnic affinities that exist in the US-Britain relationship that simply do not exist in the US-China relationship that will not allow the transition to take place smoothly and conflict could still emerge as the Americans attempt to 借刀杀人 while the Chinese 笑里藏刀.

This is American thinking back in Rosevoort time. That thinking was changed due to Communist taking over China.

Tell your Lords of the Blogosphere: we don't mind long blog as long (pun intended) as it is informative!

I can think of at least one answer: both are top energy (read oil) consumers. they will compete for oil supply in the market place, but both cannot live with a power using oil as weapon (read Russia), or tolerate a crisis that disrupts the steady oil supply (read middle east).

his view on Iraq is the only reason that he is still advising somebody in this admistration. he may soon change his mind.

China and US as allies ??!! Speaking as a proud Chinese nationalist, I think this would be a disaster. It's nothing against the US per se, (I like American culture and America) but it's my belieft that competition breeds progress of all sorts, technological, cultural, etc. And the two strongest nations and peoples on the planet should always be in competition. Only in this way will humanity progress. Throughout history China has never sought allies, it was Us versus the Barbarians. This is not a siege mentality, it's just always been this way. China has improved over the millenia because of this competition and conflict with Barbarian civilizations, Tocharians, Huns, Turks, Mongols, Manchus, Europeans, and now Americans. We'll win some, and we'll lose some as always throughout history, we'll learn from you and you'll learn from us, but the point is, China must travel alone, attain its destiny alone. When the Americans go the way of the Roman Empire and other dead civilizations, then they'll be another power China will interact with, and the Epic of China will continue going on.

As someone who has been an immigrant in both the US and China (and fluent in both languages) it seems to me that levels of distrust for the "other" seem to run higher in the US than in China. I have no numbers or statistics to prove this except for conversations I've had with students, scholars and citizens in both countries.

I'm just not sure why this is?

I think strategically it makes sense for the US to ally itself with China. China, and not Japan, is the keystone to Asia.

I am looking forward to the second part and more. Please keep it up, Bill.

"China must travel alone, attain its destiny alone. When the Americans go the way of the Roman Empire and other dead civilizations, then they'll be another power China will interact with, and the Epic of China will continue going on."

Please explain how Roman civilization is dead and Chinese is not. Your statement is a complete and utter fantasy.

I agree with traveler that the level of distrust seems higher in the US than in China. And harxard, not all Chinese people were inured for 60 years against American capitalism. Just look at the 7 million people in Hong Kong and Macau, not to mention all the ex-patriots in the states. It may be a drop in the bucket compared to the mainland population, but that is still a good number of non-enemies for America.

I don't know that the US and China can ever be allies like the US and Great Britain. However, there's no deep-seated animosity from the Chinese people for America, unlike say the one they have for Japan.

Tian, who in the administration is Barnett advising?
NewLordShang, when your economy is tied up in trade and exports, going it alone isn't really an option.

NewLordShang;
China progressed over the millennia? Not so much the last 2 or 3. Isn't it time to give isolationism a rest? The Middle Earth delusions are charming but disfunctional.

Thomas Barnett should be congratulated for his big think. I don't want to claim credit, but I always thought China and US are destined to be allies.

Consider this: Las Vegas Sands opened today a $2.4 billion casino complex at Macau. The Chinese economy is very open and highly integrated with the American economy.

That's why you see US politicians make big fuss about Chinese Yuan but nothing ever come about. The US and China are more embedded into each other than US and Japan will ever be.

If some crazies in the US thought about any confrontation between US and China, it would be just stupid on their part. And they would bring the Ameican economy and empire down.

quote NewLordShang: "China and US as allies ??!! Speaking as a proud Chinese nationalist, I think this would be a disaster. It's nothing against the US per se, (I like American culture and America) but it's my belieft that competition breeds progress of all sorts, technological, cultural, etc."

Alliance does not exclude competition. The US and Britain are close, but there's plenty of competition. The financial markets of NY and London just to name one. I attended hearings last month in the Senate Finance Committee and the House Financial Services Committee and in both, legislators voiced concern about the decline of NY as the world's dominant financial market and how last year there were more IPOs in London than NY. That's competition, but no one would deny that the US and Britain are allies.

Ultimately, the US and China will likely never become cozy with each other, but there will always be at least a status quo of mutual toleration and certain cooperation. Neither economy can afford the collapse of the other.

I was flipping through the channels one night and came across Mr. Barnett and "The Brief", as it is famously known, on C-Span. I was taken aback at the strategic simplicty of his main theme. Connect people economically and they will take care of the rest in regards to increased living standards, reduced conflict, better human rights and representative government. The best thing is most if not all of this can be done peacefully if allowed to evolve over time as opposed to setting benchmarks that have no chance of being met in the short term. I would encourage all of you to read Mr. Barnett's blog and listen to the brief. It is on the website.

Excellent quotes:
As someone who has been an immigrant in both the US and China (and fluent in both languages) it seems to me that levels of distrust for the "other" seem to run higher in the US than in China.
7 million people in Hong Kong and Macau, not to mention all the ex-patriots in the states[europe, africa, south east asia, south pacific etc]. It may be a drop in the bucket compared to the mainland population, but that is still a good number of non-enemies for America.

Ultimately, the US and China will likely never become cozy with each other, but there will always be at least a status quo of mutual toleration and certain cooperation. Neither economy can afford the collapse of the other.

[T]he [West] "being transparent and making others rich" part. I'm not seeing it. [T]he Americans [will always]attempt to 借刀杀人 while the Chinese 笑里藏刀.

China & US/West natural allies? Not over our dead bodies!

Yes, we can leverage on each other to achieve our separate geo-stategic/political goals for some of the times (marriage of convenience, so to speak). But to align ourselves with the West in soul & spirit is simply a step too far. As far as we are concerned, the West, despite its many technological & scientific achievements, represents nothing but those obnoxious features like racism, trade in slavery, imperialism, colonialism, apartheid, mnopolistic capitalism, illegal land grabs, genocides of weaker civilisations & what-have-you. The moment the Chinese leadership becomes indiscreetly pro Western or part of the Western alliance (like the meekly Japan Or Korea) is the time we will again rise up to overthrow it. So, bewarned, any Chinese elite(s) who might contemplate such shift!

"Also, the deeply ingrained mutual suspicion will have to be overcome. In China, there are generations of citizens who have been bred to fear and resent the west. This is true through all layers of society and one suspects is deeply indoctrinated in the military."Posted by harxard

I agree with the first part about the need to overcome mutual prejudices. The rest of this paragraph is just plain hogwash! Nevertheless, harxard is right with his pointing out of the absurdity of Barnett's assertions.

Indeed, as Frank wrote,"Alliance does not exclude competition. The US and Britain are close, but there's plenty of competition." Also please has anyone overlooked the fact that these two competitors are blood brothers - same race, same nature same religion for cryin' out loud!

Finally, I think "denis" nailed it on the head in the first instance, "Anyone who still thinks that the invasion of iraq was a good idea is either A:a charter member of AIPAC or B: so deluded and unobservant that all of his/her opinions should be treated as ravings than reason"

@香港辉

If you think it's hogwash that generations have been trained to fear and resent the west, look no further than Mainlander's post directly above your own. I live in China, and have experienced it first hand many times.

@harxard,

"In China, there are generations of citizens who have been bred to fear and resent the west. This is true through all layers of society..."

I have lived and experienced racism in the West too but that doesn't mean "generations of citizens [in the West] have been bred to fear and resent the [East]," now does it? Well, come to think of it, I tend to agree with what the "traveler" wrote to be more the case:

"As someone who has been an immigrant in both the US and China (and fluent in both languages) it seems to me that levels of distrust for the "other" seem to run higher in the US than in China."

AS A MATTER OF FACT, most chinese folks I know are not unlike the Koreans, the Taiwanese and of course the Japanese who admire the West. They wish to go to the West, immitate the west, send their kids to the west, over pay for western cars and enjoy over priced western meals.

I have personally heard folks in North America(in this case, they were white people) complaining that Asians were destroying the white middleclass communities with their big houses and fancy cars. (In this case they were refering to Hong Kong Chinese)

Many Asians think that Lang Kwai Fong & SOHO in Hong Kong are hip simply because a lot of Westerners hang out there. I doubt the reverse is ever the case. The Chinese appreciate quality too and admittedly at this point in time Japan, Korea and Germany as far as cars and electronics go do produce higher quality albeit pricier goods. So, please don't give me, the Chinese hate and are paraniod about the west. If anything the reverse is more true.

China only accept an Ally Deal as both side treat each other as equal. Getting an US-Japan kind of "ALLY" between US and China is virtually impossible.

@香港辉

You (perhaps accidentally) confuse educationally ingrained suspicion and fear (i.e. paranoia) with culturally ingrained racism. They are not the same thing, and in fact, both racism and learned-paranoia independently coexist in China. Likewise, admiration does not equal trust. Just because Chinese emulate some part of the western cultural aesthetic does not imply meaningful trust. Also, using Hong Kong as an example is misleading, and in the interior of China (where most people live), things are not nearly as developed and attitudes are different.

Also, I would suggest that if you believe the West is more paranoid than China, then perhaps it is due to the fact that the West has more to lose and China has more to gain by exploiting the relationship. That is, factually, the West's risk exposure to China (think IP theft, organized crime, currency manipulation, support of our enemies, substandard manufacturing practices) is greater than China's to the West.

Newlordshang,

Your Chinese nationalist attitude reminds me of that of the German Nationalist Socialists of the first half of this century. I suggest you read up on their history to see where your attitude will lead you.

And to the rest of you: Did you really think you were going to reason with this fellow? That is not an insult, I am just flabbergasted that he is taken seriously. Would you take the time to reason with a White Supremacist?

xiaonanhe,

Did Newloardshang say Chinese are superior to anyone else? I didnt see any resemblance of his/her attitude with the Nazis.

Actually he's got a point there, competitions always bring the best out of human beings, be it WWII or the Cold War. A healthy competition between the US and china will do wonder to this planet.

And xiaonanhe, you can keep your western superior crap with yourself. Nobody really needs your lectures.

@harxard
“in fact, both racism and learned-paranoia independently coexist in China.”

The fear of the unknown is natural; therefore racism and cultural prejudices are universal. Please allow me to rephrase your above statement -instead as something exclusive to what is in fact universal: “in fact, both racism and learned-paranoia independently coexist [everywhere in the world]”

You are absolutely right that admiration does not equal trust. Power corrupts and it begins to corrupt from admiration on to emulation to plagiarism etc.

I had used Hong Kong as an example simply because the movers and shakers prowl among the more economically developed coastal cities of China. The exploited hillbilly masses of the world have little to do with what the fat cats decide between Washington and Beijing. Perhaps, could you too have accidentally confused the real China from the China the world wants to visit and do business with?

It is true that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing; sometimes volatile,even lethal especially when entrenched interests are mixed into the equation and greater so when compounded with language and cultural barriers and prejudices. The East/West masses are paranoid because of the former through the influence of biased media and primary educational system. While education and/or real experience typically breed cynicism it ought to also serve to enable one to decipher the hidden truth among the malicious rumors and gossips spread by both sides of the powers to be.

You may feel that the West’s risk exposure to China is greater than China is to the West, I however feel, unlike Iraq whose exposure to the West has brought about its doom, at least with China the risks and benefits are mutual.

I like your "Americans attempt to 借刀杀人 while the Chinese 笑里藏刀" statement,harxard. All true and none exclusive.

It is said that NOTHING happens without the government prior knowledge and approval. (It is also scripted in the movie: The Shooter – An excellent movie with Mark Wahlberg; directed by Antoine Fuqua of Training Day’s fame.) Anyway, I digress. Cheers & peace be with you.

Speaking of good movies, the Golden Globe Award winner, "The last King of scotland," about the rise and fall of Uganda's first black President Idi Amin and the fictional young philandering Dr. Garrigan from has it all! 借刀杀人(to kill with borrowed weapons /Proxy killings)and "NOTHING happens without the government prior knowledge and approval."

Is xiaonanhe the disturbed and disturbing Nanheyangrouchuan? I don't see want you accuse Newlordshang of as anything but malicious slandering.

Newlordshang: "China must travel alone, attain its destiny alone. When the Americans go the way of the Roman Empire and other dead civilizations, then they'll be another power China will interact with, and the Epic of China will continue going on."

China didn't go at it alone throughout history. There was the Silk Road, or Silk Route, remember? China traded far and wide with the then civilisations through a series of interconnected ancient trade routes through various regions of the Asian continent mainly connecting Chang'an aka Xi'an in China, with Asia Minor and the Mediterranean. It extends over 8,000 km (5,000 miles) on land and sea. Trade on the Silk Route was a significant factor in the development of the great civilizations of China, Egypt, Mesopotamia, Persia, Indian subcontinent, and Rome, and helped to lay the foundations for the modern world.
Then there was Admiral Zhen [Cheng Ho]a comtemporary of Christopher Columbus, who sailed the Ocean blue bringing to China from the coastal towns and cities along the strait of Malacca such delicacies as bird's nest as gifts for the emperor's women and wonderful spices and treasures from as far as East Africa, Makkah, Persian Gulf.
Zheng He had inscripted on a pillar of stone in Fujian 500 years ago describing how the emperor of the Ming Dynasty had ordered him to sail to "the countries beyond the horizon," all the way to the end of the earth." His mission was to display the might of Chinese power and collect tribute from the "barbarians from beyond the seas."
Indeed, Admiral Zheng He's fleet sailed throughout the Indian Ocean. The Chinese Muslim warrior and Admiral had accomplished feats decades before Christopher Columbus or Vasco da Gama.
The Foundation for Science Technology and Civilisation retraces the route of China’s 15th century admiral, Zheng He(1371-1433. He helped transform China into the world’s superpower of his time.
Chinese should be very proud of their cultural heritage and should not let the tyrants of the present world dissuade them otherwise.

Simply put, most of Chinese sympathy are toward people in developing countries and NOT with developed countries. So if US wants to utilize an alliance with China to oppress those people, forget about it. But if US is working with China to maintain world peace, then it is doable.

One simple phrase:

家丑不可外扬

This is why debating with Chinese people on this blog is so stupid. A lot of Chinese people (especially young) feel that China is absolutely above the criticism of foreigners. They will argue against something they know to be true because it came out of your non-Chinese mouth.

All for saving face, and yet it ironically results in a tremendous loss of face by repeating the same lies they themselves hate to have told to them.

"One simple phrase:家丑不可外扬"
"This is why debating with Chinese people on this blog is so stupid."

I don't find sloppyzhou's sweeping comment to be entirely inaccurate. It is true that some people are ignorant, arrogant and blindly nationalistic. Nevertheless such juvenile and simplistic stereotyping of an entire race and nation merely demonstrates the imaturity of the writer, his or her diabolical propensity for biggotry, needless to say the shocking depth of his or her gross ignorance.

No wonder you are a sloppyzhou. You spew out lies and slops with no credibility.

A new word for Babel, NewLordShang, 香港辉, Mainlander and all the other English rapists on this blog to add to their arsenal:

pedantic

Also, blindly defending your country against the opinions of foreigners doesn't imply that you guys are ignorant. As far as stereotyping an entire race goes, try reading closer next time:

"...debating with Chinese people ＯＮ　ＴＨＩＳ BLOG．．．"

I do wish that I was more diabolical though.

China and the U.S. are both experiencing the establishment of new rule sets. China's growth is amazing. What the U.S. has been able to accomplish in a bit more than 200 years is awesome. Partners.

What is to come is a more peaceful world with the developed nations playing together and focusing on rogue nations and terrorists and bring them under global control, I say control and not elimination because we can't change their way of thinking, we can only make it severely unprofitable to start some crap and disrupt other's way of life. We learn from the past but trust for our collective futures.

Competitiveness without aggression is the goal.

In 30 years it will be a more peacful and truly civilzed world with partnerships.

Speaking of good movies, the Golden Globe Award winner, "The last King of scotland," about the rise and fall of Uganda's first black President Idi Amin and the fictional young philandering Dr. Garrigan from has it all! 借刀杀人(to kill with borrowed weapons /Proxy killings)and "NOTHING happens without the government prior knowledge and approval."

China and US are both great countries. China is becoming an economic giant in the world, at the same time, our people need to have a broader and merciful mind. Sticking too much to history can only bring more burden to us, and stop us to go faster and higher.

Americans represent all the potentials of western civilization(so far), but like all the great empires and establishments in the past, over self-confidence clouds the truth and destorys the future. And as for China, it still has a long way to travel before it can actually be commonly ackownledged as one of the greatest countries in the world. But that's not even the point. Globalization is the main trend throughout the human history. And American's propaganda trains Americans to think democracy is always better under whatever kind of circumstances. But truth is, since it's not a rule of nature, it doesn't apply to a lot of human societies. But don't get it in a wrong way, some level of democracy in the constitution is very important and even essential.
Americans always presumptuously believe China is a country ruled under the wills of few. But get this, republic is the very first form of democracy in this world. And judging by the performance of Chinese government in most fields, it is not that bad. As for human rights, it comes alone with the comtemporary status of one country' economical and social development, you can not expect a country's government to eliminate these kind of problems while it's working hard in an attempt to solve the poverty among over 100 million people.