The China Blog, TIME

Why Bad News for the US isn't Good News for China...

Concluding onversation with Thomas P.M. Barnett, one of the leading defense intellectuals in the United States and author of ‘The Pentagon’s New Map,’ about the possibility of a US-China alliance.


TIME: Now there are a lot of Americans who will object I think to your analogy of the US as the UK in the early part of the 20th century, and China as the rising power, ie the US a century ago. You argue that we should play the role that Great Britain did and try to manage China’s rise toward being a responsible power. First, do you really think China will supplant the US as the world’s leading power?

Barnett: No, at least not for quite awhile. China’s rise is not the same as our decline. A key difference between us and Great Britain is that the U.K. had to fight two wars in a generation against Germany, the rising power of the time. That had a lot to do with Britain’s decline. There is no inevitability to a similar US decline.

TIME: But some influential defense thinkers—outside the Pentagon I’m thinking of John Mearsheimer, the University of Chicago political scientist—seem to argue that there is something inevitable about conflict between the US and China, simply because China is rising, the US is number one, and there can’t be two number ones. And they use the rise of Germany in the early 20th century as a depressing analogy. Why are they wrong?

Barnett: Well, I'll say again, there’s nothing inevitable about it, and smart people on both sides understand that. Look, I’ve had meetings with both young PLA officers in Beijing, as well as fifth generation politicians, and when I talk about this stuff, their eyes light up. When I talk about how the United States needs China, but that China also needs the United States, they understand it. The connectivity runs both ways, obviously in economics and trade, and I’m arguing it needs to be extended into the security realm. And this IS possible. The assumption—which is pretty widespread in some precincts in the Pentagon and among some US scholars-- that leaders in Beijing assume that bad news for the US—like the bleeding we’re doing in Iraq, for example-- is good news for China , well that’s just wrong.
Take energy and the situation in the middle east as an example. Ten years from now, China will import 70per cent of its oil from places that are unsafe or unstable ( primarily the middle east and Africa.) For the United States, who is equally if not more `dependent on foreign oil,’ that ratio is reversed. About 70 per cent of our oil is from relatively safe places. Now Beijing, 10 years from now is not going to be in any position to safeguard the Straits of Hormuz. There is no way they can access those situations militarily or politically. Guess who they (the unstable oil producers) have by the balls: China. Not the US. Beijing needs the US to remain engaged in the Middle East and elsewhere, and anything that saps the will of the US to do that-- ie Iraq—is NOT good news for China. I repeat: these fifth generation guys get this. They understand that both sides need the other not just economically speaking but in terms of security as well, and they we have to work towards accomplishing that. [A military alliance]is not something that will happen overnight, but it is something that both sides should be thinking about.

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Reader Comments (14)

guiyang_laoshi:

Having read Barnett's book - The Pentagon's New Map, I can say that I am impressed by his insights into the current world situation even if I disagree with some of his conclusions and policy recommendations. As for the US and China becoming allies I would be hesitant. I love both countries and know that most of the think-tankers and bureaucrats with clout on both sides of the Pacific understand that China and the USA need each other. China could not survive (economically anyway) a sudden US economic collapse. Nor could China begin to police the world and ensure access to trade and resources without the US - at least not any time soon.

I would say it is likely the US and China will not become allies officially since it is politically advantageous for both countries' politicians to fling stones at the other. Nonetheless a rising China will find that its 3rd world solidarity rhetoric aside, it has much more in common with the US than it would like. Similarly the US has increasing interests in the stability and viability of China. No formal alliance need be formed but both powers will definitely learn to cooperate.

But then again, what do I know?

"Look, I’ve had meetings with both young PLA officers in Beijing, as well as fifth generation politicians, and when I talk about this stuff, their eyes light up. When I talk about how the United States needs China, but that China also needs the United States, they understand it."

Barnett is easily taken in by polite acknowledgements by Chinese students. These are probably the same students that have told the PLAN senior leadership they want a blue navy fleet to engage the US on the high seas.

China and the US cannot get along because China feels it has a "mandate from heaven" to rule the world and to get revenge on 150-400 years of humiliation by the Caucasian barbarians. Chinese leadership has also been espousing the writings of Hitler in regards to racial superiority.

The US cannot share the stage and should not cooperate with such a wretched regime as the CCP. China is not a responsible stakeholder and makes a mess out of everything it touches.

Bad, untrustworthy, filthy, corrupt China

IvyLeaguer:

I think what Barnett has to say is worth considering--and I am certainly no fan of the PRC government.

If there is a danger of China, it is that the US, through injudicious use of its own military and economic power, declines too quickly. This decline, for instance of the dollar, may mean that the euro replaces the dollar as the world's leading reserve currency in the next 5-10 years. If this happens, then the decline of US economic influence globally will quickly accelerate.

When this happens, Taiwan will become even more isolated, and US influence throughout the rest of the world will diminish. Ironically, the current American mood towards a narrow nationalism and right-wing evangelistic Christianity is accelerating the environment for this trend.

The problem is that there is nothing stable to replace it. If this happens, it will become a case of every nation for his own, and the total breakdown of the WTO framework for world trade.

I call this scenario the New Dark Ages.

Gitmo:

"the current American mood towards a narrow nationalism and right-wing evangelistic Christianity is accelerating the environment for this trend."

Mr. Denlinger, I think you have just described the "End of age or time," that the Fundamentalist Christians have been preaching for centuries. And part of their divine mandates involve in helping to fulfill prophesies! Indeed the New Dark Ages is coming.

Anonymous:

In a word,Thomas's suggestion is very constructive.
Chinse Lion prefer sleeping to mastering the world if comfortable.Alliance is win-win. But if you want confront the lion,you know what are you going to be...

jb:

Any thing before u make comments should be done a full probe. u have to make sure what u said is competely true. Every party has done something bad and good. About CCP, in history it did sth good to the Chinese people and won the support of the vast majority of them so that it came into power. But it controls the nation by its will and few pace is avilable to other parties. At this moment, US and China are both influncial countries. They'd better cooperate with each other despite their different political perference.

zhanghuangdi:

The US going to lose when we win all of the olympics medals! Bad news for US is great news and you will read about it soon!

Mr. Sparkle:

Maybe China will win medals in the dog-eating events.

Rouge_hacker:

If China is a risk, Why don't the US just go ahead and divert all its investment to a more friendly third world country since China relies heavily on the US. I mean why wait until China does something stupid if the US can prevent it now? It is really obvious that China is trying to learn everything about the US e.g. anti-satellite missile, hacking the Pentagon's network, sending spies here in the US, massive spending over it's military and stealing US military's technology. I think China's agenda is way beyond the Taiwan issue. It wants to become NUMBER 1!

Babel:

"It [China] wants to become NUMBER 1!"

China was "yellow peril" when it was poor. China, still a developing country somehow becomes a risk to America when 70% of its population is living in abject poverty? China is also accused of being racist when the China is a country of a thousand tongues where over a thousand dialects are spoken. China also celebrate multi culturalism. There are 60 odd minority groups and tribes in China which enjoy special privileges such as exemption from the one child policy and free education.
And what about America? It is at best becoming a more bi-lingual country with extremist groups, organizations, and secret societies known as the Ku Klux Klan, the Neo-Nazis, the christian fundamentalists, the neo-Con, skull & Bones, CIA, NSA, the black panthers, anti-sematism, anti-this and that, all together fanning the fire of racial hatred and wars among and between the whites, blacks, hispanics and Asians. NO wonder the US media and some of its racist and paranoid citizens supported the invasion of Iraq and possibly Iran.
Of course China's agenda is beyond Taiwan, it wants to pull itself out of its so-called 3rd world status into the so-called first, not to become number 1, that's your western mentality not ours.

Flying Tiger:

China's Mandate from Heaven is the US's Manifest destiny.

China is very practical. It reformed its economy in a gradual experimental model. It has sided against Iran on several UN resoluctions inspite of huge contracts for natural gas and oil with Iran.
It has even exerted pressure on Sudan to accept UN peacekeepers. On the US side there is a swing back to the democrats coming. This should hopefully also swing back to pragmatic diplomacy of Clinton or Kerry style.
Hopefully China will learn in Africa supplying both sides of a potential conflict with arms is not a good way to keep stability. Stability helps free trade. China and the US both want a good business environment, thus I agree they will work together in the future.

Victoria:

The ying and the yang, who is to say which country is which: US, China or China, US. What is true is that we all, Americans and Chinese, and each individual member of each country, possess both. And individual freedom is just as important as collective stability and security. All people need both--the ying and the yang.

Condor:

Of course China's agenda is beyond Taiwan, it wants to pull itself out of its so-called 3rd world status into the so-called first, not to become number 1, that's your western mentality not ours!
Crap..Beleiev me, that mindframe has existed before there was anything called a western hemisphere! While I do believe China seeks to correct its economic conditions, I do not believe its operating without any spirit of competition with the U.S. or the rest of the world. Oh, by the way, racism isnt an american phenomenon. I can recall anti american sentiment in China. I am pretty sure there are extremist groups! And just because there are a thousand dialects and ethnic groups doesnt prove to anyone that racism doesnt exist..That actually would make racism more prevalent..I would think..tribal superiority..If there was one thnic group..then racism between members would be impossible..think about it! Humans are humans..wherever you go..racism and competitveness is there!

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About The China Blog

Simon Elegant

Simon Elegant was born in Hong Kong and since then China has pretty much always been at the center of his life. Read more


Liam Fitzpatrick

Liam Fitzpatrick was born in Hong Kong and joined TIME in 2003. He edits Global Adviser for TIME Asia. Read more


Ling Woo Liu

Ling Woo Liu worked as a television reporter in Beijing and moved to Hong Kong to report for TIME Asia. Read more


Bill Powell

Bill Powell is a senior writer for TIME in Shanghai. He'd been Chief International correspondent for Fortune in Beijing, then NYC. Read more


Austin Ramzy

Austin Ramzy studied Mandarin in China and has a degree in Asian Studies. He has reported for TIME Asia in Hong Kong since 2003. Read more


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