May 6, 2008 8:51
Why the Tibet Talks Will Fail
An interesting piece in today's South China Morning Post laying out why the Tibet talks are almost certainly destined to go nowhere. I have mentioned some of the obstacles the talks face in previous posts, particularly the "greater Tibet" issue. This article goes into detail on the other huge impediment to progress, the extent of the autonomy sought by the Dalai Lama's negotiators. The money graf:
The Dalai Lama's decision to give up the demand for Tibetan independence in return for substantial autonomy was intended to make it possible to arrive at an agreement with China. But it is clear that the alternative to independence is still far more radical than anything the Chinese system is either able, or willing, to deliver. The Dalai Lama's minimum demands for autonomy would effectively require the repealing of communist rule in Tibet, and potentially begin the unraveling of mainland China's political structure.
As the story says, Beijing is neither willing nor able to grant concessions of the kind sought by the government in exile, as the Daiai Lama is perfectly well aware. Of course, already under fire for his "Third Way" from more radical, younger Tibetan exiles, the Dalai Lama is also not able to modify his demands. It's always better to talk than not to of course but viewed with a cold eye, it's very hard to see any way the two sides can bridge this yawning gulf.
About The China Blog
Simon Elegant was born in Hong Kong and since then China has pretty much always been at the center of his life. Read more
Liam Fitzpatrick was born in Hong Kong and joined TIME in 2003. He edits Global Adviser for TIME Asia. Read more
Ling Woo Liu worked as a television reporter in Beijing and moved to Hong Kong to report for TIME Asia. Read more
Bill Powell is a senior writer for TIME in Shanghai. He'd been Chief International correspondent for Fortune in Beijing, then NYC. Read more
Austin Ramzy studied Mandarin in China and has a degree in Asian Studies. He has reported for TIME Asia in Hong Kong since 2003. Read more


Reader Comments (23)
the answer is,chinese gov never admit dalai's political role,only admit his religion role.Religion can't be used to opposite political mattar,this is a long policy since dalai said he want tibet independence.
and you don't know this?
Posted by airsand | May 6, 2008 9:37 PM
Simon
The policy of Chinese Gov. toward Dalai Lama is well known among Chinese. Why is it so difficult for western journalists to understand?
1). Any changes to the current social and political structure in Tibet is unacceptable.
2). Dalai Lama is always welcomed as a spiritual leader. THere is no political role for him to play.
These policy was set by Mao and haven't change since. It is so well known in China.
If CCP concedes anything to Dalai Lama, Hu and his people maybe overturned by CCP members with the support of Chinese people.
Posted by jeff | May 6, 2008 10:03 PM
Simon
The policy of Chinese Gov. toward Dalai Lama is well known among Chinese. Why is it so difficult for western journalists to understand?
1). Any changes to the current social and political structure in Tibet is unacceptable.
2). Dalai Lama is always welcomed as a spiritual leader. THere is no political role for him to play.
These policy was set by Mao and haven't change since. It is so well known in China.
If CCP concedes anything to Dalai Lama, Hu and his people maybe overturned by CCP members with the support of Chinese people.
Posted by jeff | May 6, 2008 10:04 PM
I read that the Chinese Constitution itself guarantees that ethnic minorities should have a single political entity. The Tibet demanded by the Dalai Lama is ethnically Tibetan, isn't it? It seems the Chinese Constitution doesn't apply to the poor and backward Tibetans!
Posted by Xuechen07 | May 6, 2008 10:04 PM
Xuechen07
That is why Tibet is called TAR. Like it or not, Chinese Constitution also said every entities must follow the lead of CCP. In Tibetan areas outside TAR, Tibetans are minorities since several hundred years ago. There are many different ethnic groups in that area. And there were no prefectures for Tibetans before. CCP created Tibetan prefectures. We might all wish to let Dalai Lama, in stead of CCP, rule China and keep Tibet within China. But I am not sure whether His Holiness will resume the serfdom and those brutal rituals. Although I might pay to enjoy the gentle whipping by a hot girl, I don't want that from a Lama. Nun? I am not sure.
Posted by jeff | May 6, 2008 10:42 PM
Simon,
I wonder why these details are only coming out now. A few weeks ago when the protests were going on, it seemed as though the attitude in the western press was that China was simply irresponsible not to want to even talk to the Dalai Lama. If it had been made clear to everyone that the Dalai Lama wanted virtual separation from China, and that he was lusting after 25% of the current land area of China, I don't think people would have felt it was unreasonable of the Chinese to say that negotiation is pointless. For one, I think this whole game is a waste of time. Maybe if the west would put some reasonable conditions on the support for the Tibetans, such as, come back to earth and come up with some reasonable demands such as Tibetan language in the schools or less interference with temples then maybe the Tibetans would be forced to stop making such ridiculous demands. I mean, if it were up to us Americans, we would probably grant a few more casinos and maybe a whale hunting license or two. Now there is a good concession! In the meantime, i am starting a new movement called FREE ALASKA! or FREE HAWAII! FREE CALFORNIA! etc.
Posted by Stephen | May 6, 2008 11:41 PM
We all understand what the Chinese government's policy towards Tibet is, and there for talks between Chinese government and anybody else on this issue will be a failure. Talks can be successful only if all sides are negotiating in good faith.
Posted by John Smith | May 6, 2008 11:51 PM
"i am starting a new movement called FREE ALASKA! or FREE HAWAII! FREE CALFORNIA! etc."
Great, I suggest you go to Alaska, Hawaii and California to tell them how good it will be when they are independent. If you can get 50%+1 of the people to agree, they will probably be independent. Go ahead. Make my day.
Eh, I suggest you start in Chinatown in those places. I bet you will have excellent reception there as a start. Go.
Posted by John Smith | May 6, 2008 11:54 PM
John Smith,
Ok, first ask all the white people to move out, then only let the natives vote. That's fair, isn't it?
Posted by Stephen | May 7, 2008 12:00 AM
The talk will fail and the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans will certainly be defeated beyond all measure. Based on the success and failure of the American experience, China should use that precedent to treat its minority. Everyone knows that the U. S. minority policy is a total failure. In general, the White mericans are treating its Black minority very well. Starting with equal right in transportation and bus riding. They were given affirmartive actions for employment and education and other previlages. They were given fair share of social security benefits. Blacks are getting much more than their fair share in the media, television, newspaper, advertisements, etc... They are getting fair housing much more so than other ethnic groups such as Latino, Asian and especially more than the American Indian who were originally living in this land. Everyone can clear observe the American results -- the Black minority in the U. S. are exploiting their previleges. Black bus drivers harassing and unfairly treating
non-Black riders. They using crimes and harassments to force other race out of their neighborhood and moving to new development in the wilderness destroying our environment. Crimes have force people to move to places so far from their work places that long distance
driving have waste valuable gasoline. Affirmative in education, taking away other ethnic groups rights for a fair eduaction lower the national literacy and eduaction standard compare to other countries.
Affirmative action in employment lower the quality of American workers to the points of outsourcing even very simple jobs to other countries. All those who opposed China action are simply insulting Chinese intelligence, thinking China will be so stupid as to listen to what they say. Just give me one reason why China should not suppress the illegal riots and terrorism of its Tibetan minority groups?
In addition the validity of the Fourteenth (14th) Dalai Lama in serious question. According to the principles of Buddhism, once a
recycle or reincarnation process has passed the unlucky number "13" which represents expired/death then recycle/reincarnation, such
reincarnation processes will end. This means that the Dalai Lama is invalid, has no supernatural, and can no longer represents his
predecessors. The Tibetan people had rebelled against Buddha and operating against Buddhism by treating this current Fourteenth "Dalai
Lama" as their leader.
Posted by fan_chor-cheung | May 7, 2008 12:15 AM
Simon - this piece is just stating the obvious. Good to see you finally caught onto a piece that represents the truth rather than some rubbish to which you have been accustomed.
Posted by Allen Yu | May 7, 2008 1:43 AM
John Smith - the vote you propose would only be limited to the natives. And all non-natives will have to move out of Alaska/Hawaii after that.
Posted by Allen Yu | May 7, 2008 1:44 AM
Can’t the Western mass media just leave Beijing alone, at least for the time being until the Olympics is over (for your own good in the future)?
What does the West gain by relentlessly pounding on Beijing’s handling of Tibetan issue (when historically it is a non-issue)?
Why keep telling the world your “presumed negative” assumptions about China that are bound to hurt the Chinese feelings (including that of overseas Chinese)? Is it not counter-productive to show disrespect?
Why raise the Tibet talks incessantly when the outcome is already a foregone conclusion? Does this not tantamount to your being overly narcissistic?
There is no necessity to hide or disguise your obnoxious intention. It can only reflect more and more of the hidden intense Sino-phobia in you. Does it not?
Posted by Tan Boon Tee | May 7, 2008 1:56 AM
Dalai has neither time nor bargaining power to negotiate with China. He will die after 10 to 15 years and his followers will split and be assimilated into Indian or western culture.
Dalai as a religious title will no longer exist.
Tibet will go prosperous and modernized just like everywhere in China.
Posted by ablogger | May 7, 2008 10:14 AM
Q: Why the Tibet Talks Will Fail?
A: Because little scrappy simon is a CNN blogger
Posted by tswolf | May 7, 2008 12:20 PM
Dala lama was a slave owner.
he was the one who was exploiting the tibetan people!
we have been pumping the fresh modern blood into their vessel. they should be grateful.
Posted by tswolf | May 7, 2008 12:26 PM
The Tibet talk will fail because China cannot give any concessions to the Dalai and the Dalai is not sincere about wanting to find a settlement with the Chinese government. Dalai doesnt want to return to live in Tibet because he is having too much fun in the West. If he returned to Tibet, he'd be shut up in a sterile monarstery and eat plain food and have no parties to attend. Therefore, the Dalai is not negotiating to return to China. Nor is he negotiating to gain autonomy for Tibet. This means that he is negotiating for the sake of negotiating to gain credibility for himself. If he didn't negotiate with the Chinese government, then people will forget him because he would be perceived as having lost any kind of influence. But as long as he is negotiating with the Chinese government, then the West will see him as having values. And as long as the West see him as a valuable asset to attack China with, then they will give all kinds of money to Dalai and treat him with respect and invite him to parties and rallies, thus giving the Dalai money, medals, honoray citizenship, etc. and a good time all around.
Therefore, it is pointless for China to negotiate with Dalai. China has nothing to gain and everything to lose by negotiating with a man who cannot bring stability to Tibet and will inevitably be used as a force to destabilize Tibet. It is a very stupid and pointless thing for China to talk with Dalai. The only outcome is that China has given credibility and revived a monster long past its prime.
To read my article titled "China must specify the game and define the rules", please go to the link below:
http://www.network54.com/Forum/238054/thread/1208592251/last-1208592251/China+must+specify+the+game+and+define+the+rules.
Posted by Liang1a | May 7, 2008 11:56 PM
The Dalai Lama is very secure in his Buddhist practice as a simple monk...it has always been his opinion that the fate of the Tibetans people lies in the hands of china leaders. The gov propaganda against him and the people of Tibet has only delayed any constructive change for human rights in china.
Without any reform or responsible action by the red dragon the true GOLD MEDAL HEROS of china are those protesting human rights abuses.
The NOBEL PRIZE and CONGRESSIONAL MEDAL OF HONOR was awarded to the Dalai Lama for his compassionate approach for a solution for Tibet.
On the other side of the coin the olympics in china along with the torch of freedom is another throw away piece of plastic for the chinese psyche if it does not engage in any meaningful talks with the Dalai Lama
The psyche of the chinese overseas seeking prestige for their VISIONS OF GRANDEUR will suffer more alienation by their protective egos. They will find no peace in their heart nor appreciation for all the hard work to construct the beautiful 'bird nest'. Most people will see the suffering of the people who made it rather than its physical beauty.
BEAUTY IS ONLY SKIN DEEP
The laws of karma and causality cannot be ignored, the rights of all chinese citizens is guaranteed in the constitution.
RELIGIOUS PERSECUTION, GREED, RACISM, FEMINISM AND ATTACKS ON CIVIL LIBERTIES NEED TO BE ENFORCED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF CHINA, NOT CONTROLLED BY THE IMPERIAL CCP.
Posted by mao tse tune | May 8, 2008 8:36 AM
The talk will fail and the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans will certainly be defeated beyond all measure. Based on the success and failure of the American experience, China should use that precedent to treat its minority. Everyone knows that the U. S. minority policy is a total failure. In general, the White Americans are treating its Black minority very well. Starting with equal right in transportation and bus riding. They were given affirmartive actions for employment and education and other previlages. They were given fair share of social security benefits. Blacks are getting much more than their fair share in the media, television, newspaper, advertisements, etc... They are getting fair housing much more so than other ethnic groups such as Latino, Asian and especially more than the American Indian who were originally living in this land. Everyone can clear observe the American results -- the Black minority in the U. S. are exploiting their previleges. Black bus drivers harassing and unfairly treating non-Black riders. They using crimes and harassments to force other race out of their neighborhood and moving to new development in the wilderness destroying our environment. Crimes have force people to move to places so far from their work places that long distance driving have waste valuable gasoline. Affirmative in education, taking away other ethnic groups rights for a fair eduaction lower the national literacy and eduaction standard compare to other countries. Affirmative action in employment lower the quality of American workers to the points of outsourcing even very simple jobs to other countries. All those who opposed China action are simply insulting Chinese intelligence, thinking China will be so stupid as to listen to what they say. Just give me one reason why China should not suppress the illegal riots and terrorism of its Tibetan minority groups? In addition the validity of the Fourteenth (14th) Dalai Lama in serious question. According to the principles of Buddhism, once a recycle or reincarnation process has passed the unlucky number "13" which represents expired/death then recycle/reincarnation, such reincarnation processes will end. This means that the Dalai Lama is invalid, has no supernatural power, and can no longer represents his predecessors. The Tibetan people had rebelled against Buddha and operating against Buddhism by treating this current Fourteenth "Dalai Lama" as their leader.
Posted by fan_chor-cheung | May 8, 2008 10:07 AM
Dala lama was a slave owner.
Posted by tswolf | May 7, 2008 12:26 PM
Now, now, there's a difference between slaves and serfs... Serfs are tied to the land and can never be freed, whereas slaves can be bought and sold and can be freed. So, it might be better to be a slave than a serf.
Posted by Sara | May 8, 2008 1:52 PM
In the past, the serfs ate Dalai Lama's excrement when they got sick.
Posted by andreas | May 9, 2008 12:56 AM
fan_chor-cheung wrote:
The talk will fail and the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans will certainly be defeated beyond all measure. Based on the success and failure of the American experience, China should use that precedent to treat its minority.
---------------------
Maybe China should follow the American precedent by putting all the Tibetans in reservations located in the worst possible places in Tibet. Maybe an area consisting of some 5,000 sq miles can be put aside to house the Tibetans in shacks like the ones housing the native Americans in various reservations in the barren deserts of American south-west.
Posted by Liang1a | May 9, 2008 4:23 PM
Dala Lama,
In the recent earthquake in Szechuan, China, many of the victims are Tibetan. IF you really care about Tibetan and lives, why don't you donate $$ to those people at all? Do you actually care about Tibetan in Szechuan at all? Or you just want to gain more power in Tibet?
I really doubt about it.
Lada Mala
Posted by ladamala | May 17, 2008 5:07 PM