It's official: Peak oil is here and "the long emergency" has begun

Well, it seems to me that if we can get through the next 440 or so days without Bush doing anything monumentally stupid, the odds are pretty good that oil prices will fall (especially if a Democrat is elected) as the potential for monumentally stupid foreign policy blunders recedes into history.

I was shocked to see that spot market prices for crude are around $93.... this can really only be attributed to hoarding of existing crude inventories in anticipation of even higher spot market prices in the future, rather than a direct supply/demand relationship. The markets are betting that the longer we wait, the greater the odds of Bush doing something monumentally stupid.

It is too early to declare "Peak Oil," especially given the fact that with global warming areas that were previously inaccessible are now capable of being investigated and possibly exploited. I am thinking, for instance, the North Pole and Antarctica.
But, of course, a lot of international treaties will have to be shredded while the major powers on both ends of the pole jostle each other for a drink.

Bah, there is so much unconventional oil out there which, at high oil costs, can be effectively extracted for massive profit (Tar sands, Oil Shale), that it'll be a long, long time before we run out.

It's not about running out. It's about being incapable of boosting current production levels. The tar sand reserves in Canada are huge, but they don't exactly gush oil. Getting it out is a slow, energy intensive process. And while that's getting geared up, a lot of big, established areas are giving out.

The real problem is that we ignore the behavior of oil evolution curves.People forget Hubbert1 curves exactly predicting the oil peak now officially recognized.If we knew the laws ruling the process of evolution in human society we would be sure about this being only a plateau, instead of the catasthrophic end. According to my theory of evolution, society passes by successive peaks, but surpasses them. From now on we'll have new technologies of oil production and new reservoirs will appear, and a new great curve will have a new oil peak in 2050.

Well 2006 oil consumption shows that although prices went up a lot, demand was nearly steady. I think if you consider the switch to non-oil sources of energy, net energy consumption is steadily rising despite oil prices rising. Eventually, oil will price itself out of the market! Oil has only been a popular energy source because of its cheapness and convenience. As those qualities wear thin because of scarcity, alternative fuels will sound much better.

Oil may not run out anytime soon, but it may price itself out of the reach of the Middle Class in the event that it continues to surge well past $100 per barrel. The costlier the crude and natural gas, the more money can go to pay for those ever-more-expensive exploration and technology ventures that are necessary to extract oil that is in ever-more challenging environments. So, yes, for the foreseeable future one could conclude that technology will continue to enable us to extract crude no matter how obscure the source — which currently entails drilling five miles below the surface of the Gulf where crude temps reach in excess of 400 degrees at a depth that exceeds the height of Mt. Everest. But the real question is whether the average family will be able to afford petro-dependent products and services at the ever-increasing prices that will be necessary to fund increasingly dicey exploration and acquisition. Of course that's a scary question to ask given that everything from plastics to food and medication depends on fossil fuel energy!

Alternatives will sound much better once cheap oil and its derivative products are unrealistic for all but the elite. The problem is, something like 70 percent of our GNP comes from goods and services that depend on cheap oil. If scarcity enters the picture, it will destroy our economy in such a way that even the stock market profiteers will have little investor support for new energy — not because we don't need it, but because few can pony up for the cost of a new energy infrastruture while at the same time making do with the skyrocketing expense and scarcity of old energy. So the time to prepare for the worst is now — when it will be relatively leisurely and painless to do so. By contrast, the worst time to start thinking about dumping money into alternative energy innovation is NOT when our economy has already hit rock bottom due to people hording their money just to pay their inflating utility, food and gasoline costs.

Hi...newsflash....Back in 1986, oil collapsed...10 bux a drum, if you recall. People coudn't give it away. If you also recall, the dollar was at an historical peak against all other currency. That nice rolex was $500. I know because I bought one. No you have oil at an historical peak and the dollar at an historical low. There's no shortage and there's little increasing demand. This is all about the weak buck. Look at any graph and you'll see what I mean.

Hi..mnb..very interesting comment. There is a connection between the weak buck and high oil prices, but why do you think the buck is so weak?? High oil prices cause the US to spend more on imports and that makes our trade imbalance much worse. It's all about the high price of oil driving down the dollar and not the weak dollar driving up oil. There are shortages, you just have to look in poorer countries to find it.