April 30, 2008 4:20
Is McCain really willing to be as radical as his health care plan?
Karen Tumulty declares over on Swampland that "The Great Health Care Debate of 2008 is Finally Engaged," and she's definitely right that the approach McCain announced yesterday is radically different from what Obama and Clinton have been talking about. It is pretty much the same as what the Bush administration has been promoting for several years (and that Ramesh Ponnuru talked up in the pages of Time a few months ago) with little result. It's basically about forcing individuals to pay taxes on the value of the health benefits they get from employers, but then giving them a tax credit to make up for some of that. The result, Shawn Tully writes in Fortune: "The raison d'ĂȘtre for corporate health benefits would vanish."
Now delinking health care from jobs is something that really does probably need to happen, but it's not unique to McCain's proposal. Democrat Ron Wyden's much-discussed bill would do it as well, and I suspect that if either the Clinton or Obama plan were enacted, the responsibility for health insurance would slowly but inevitably migrate away from employers.
So what's so radical about the McCain plan? For one thing, it appears to dramatically reduce the tax subsidy for health care--it would be limited to a $5,000-per-family credit, while existing corporate plans are often much more generous than that. This would put downward pressure on health care spending, which would seem to be a good thing. It would of course do so by giving people less money to spend on health care, which isn't going to be popular. But if universal health care is going to keep costs in check then it too would have to include limits on spending.
The really big difference between McCain's plan and that of the Democrats is that McCain envisions an atomized market full of individuals making their own health care decisions. This the way most of the rest of the U.S. economy functions, so why shouldn't it work for health care? Well, there are lots of reasons. Commenter Crust lists a few:
1. Individuals have less bargaining power and sophistication than employers.
2. Negative selection.
3. Greater frictional costs from advertising to individuals, etc.
There are parts of the health care business that work really well as conventional free markets--elective laser eye surgery is a particular favorite of libertarian health wonks. But many health-care purchasing decisions would seem to be better made by experts. And if insurers are left to their own devices in a market composed purely of individual customers, they'll end up offering their services mostly to those who don't really need them. The upshot is that in many, perhaps most, cases health-care consumers are better served by banding together (not necessarily as employees of a single firm; health insurance purchasing cooperatives can serve the same function).
McCain does propose the creation of what he calls a Guaranteed Access Plan for "those without prior group coverage and those with pre-existing conditions." But it's not clear to me why creating such a state-supported black hole is preferable to requiring some kind of community rating by health insurers. And it signals that McCain perhaps doesn't really believe that free-market health care solves everything.
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Reader Comments (8)
I'm self employed and a parent. My plan eats a sizable hole in my pocket.
I'm also no expert, but when my GP recommended an MRI on my shoulder, I got a second (out of network - ouch!) opinion. After a more economical x-ray, he solved the problem.
Out of network is more expensive but an MRI is thousands. I'm looking for a new GP.
Does McCain recommend trial and error as the way for all Americans to become healthcare experts?
I got lucky.
There is no real Consumer Reports for doctors.
Posted by carsick | April 30, 2008 4:49 PM
Great, balanced post (and not because you quoted me ;) ).
Posted by Crust
|
April 30, 2008 4:59 PM
...elective laser eye surgery is a particular favorite of libertarian health wonks.
Heh. Not for long.
Posted by grape_crush | April 30, 2008 5:05 PM
Excellent post, Justin Fox.
Would you mind terribly elaborating on one statement and clarifying another, please?
This [proposed a $5,000-per-family credit] would put downward pressure on health care spending, which would seem to be a good thing.
I'm sorry, why would that seem to be a good thing?
Is spending the real problem with health care inflation, or are costs, period? Is it your contention that if spending were reduced, there would be less demand for health care, and therefore a downward pressure exerted on its prices? What I'm asking is whether or not it seems to you that purely an increase in demand has lead to the kind of inflation rates we have seen with respect to health care costs. Obviously if increasing demand isn't the primary factor in skyrocketing inflation rates with respect to the cost of health care, then simply reducing demand (by increasing the net price to individual consumers) wouldn't necessarily seem to be a "good thing", would it not?
It would of course do so by giving people less money to spend on health care, which isn't going to be popular.
Do you mean that it might not be popular because health care consumers may be priced out of good health, and may therefore confront sickness and death, or is there some other reason you mean that a poverty of health care would be unpopular with Americans?
Thanks so much in advance for reading this, Justin Fox.
Posted by stuart_zechman | April 30, 2008 5:36 PM
But if universal health care is going to keep costs in check then it too would have to include limits on spending.
Can you support this with some evidence, please, Justin? I mean, beyond saying that the universal plan would set reimbursement rates for procedures and so forth? Universal single payer coverage is cheaper per capita, but not because there are "limits on spending" by consumers.
Posted by jayackroyd
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April 30, 2008 5:38 PM
Justin,
I think that I've got agree with Stuart and Jay here. My sister finished med school not long ago before I finished law school. And school costs were what I would call huge $150k for Baylor College of Medicine. Law school was much cheaper. Now that we have tort reform those pesky law suits have been cut by 60%. The problem is that the healthcare costs have kept going up...they just haven't gone down.
To me, this plan sounds like Reagan's Voodoo economics...in this case "reverse trickle down economics." If we force industry to deal with people that have less money, they will be forced to lower prices. Since when has artificially reduced demand ever brought about a reduction in prices. All this is going to force doctors, pharmacists, nurses and our high tech medical device companies to do is go make a better living in another country!!
That giant sucking sound you here is Doctors and nurses making a better living in Canada, South America or China. Granted, this is probably over the top.
-Bryan
Posted by Bryan from Houston | April 30, 2008 5:58 PM
@stuart_zechman and jayackroyd: I just meant that, if you reduce the tax subsidy for something, you'd think that would reduce demand and thus both spending and prices. But there are a lot of caveats there: Given that lots of people get no employer-provided health care today and thus little or no tax break, I'm not sure the overall tax subsidy would decrease under the McCain plan. Plus, health-care economics are weird.
As for universal care having limits on spending, I was thinking both of reimbursement rates for procedures and limits on what kinds of procedures are reimbursed. Private insurance has those, too, but my sense is that most universal health care systems around the world are stingier on those fronts than the better U.S. corporate plans.
And finally, as for jayackroyd's question:
"Do you mean that it might not be popular because health care consumers may be priced out of good health, and may therefore confront sickness and death, or is there some other reason you mean that a poverty of health care would be unpopular with Americans?" I hadn't really thought that through, I guess. But I do think many people would be ticked off if previously cheap/available medicines and procedures suddenly became expensive/unavailable, even if this had no perceptible impact on health outcomes.
Posted by Justin Fox | April 30, 2008 6:28 PM
It would seem to me to be a ripe opportunity for a controlled scientific experiment. Anyone voting republican in November gets moved onto Mccain plan for the next 8 years. Anyone else stays on current setup for next 8. Compare and contrast results in 8 years.
Would involve a little loss of privacy regarding voting, but well worth it i'm sure.
Justin: unrelated link for you
http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/dying_newspaper_trend_buys?utm_source=onion_rss_daily
Posted by That Anonymous Dude | May 1, 2008 8:30 AM