The Palin/experience thing, part II

Since writing that last post about how poor a predictor of presidential success political experience seems to be, it has occurred to me that long public service does at least give voters, running mates, etc. the chance to get to know a person. Without that familiarity, of course, you can get some interesting surprises right before (or right after) a convention.

I remain dubious of the whole experience-is-important argument, though. John McCain has been involved in national politics for decades, and Barack Obama for just four years. Yet in the areas I follow closely--economics, mostly--I feel like I have a much better sense of the policies Obama would push as president than I do of McCain's priorities. That's partly because McCain would almost certainly be dealing with a Congress dominated by the opposing party, making compromise essential and prediction harder. But it's also just that McCain likes to wing it. As he appears to have done in nominating Sarah Palin.

Update: TIME's Nathan Thornburgh does a wonderful job of describing just what being mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, entailed.