Is Syria Preparing for War?

What's he thinking? A poster of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad on the walls of the Old City in Damascus.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon came out of a meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad yesterday with something like a warm glow. Ban said that Assad had promised to use his influence to solve some thorny local issues that could lead to further regional turmoil, especially the status of a UN tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.

But there is reason to believe that the talks didn't go so well. In a release to the Syrian state media, Assad said Syria "will accept what all Lebanese accept." But when is the last time all Lebanese agreed on anything?

Lebanon is currently locked into an five month political crisis between the pro-Syrian opposition led by Hizballah and the pro-American government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. One of the major sticking points in the dispute is the status of the UN Hariri tribunal. Siniora and his allies blame Syria for the killing, and they see the tribunal as the only way to force Syrian intelligence out of Lebanon. But the pro-Syrian opposition has prevented parliament from meeting and voting on a bill that would allow for the tribunal's establishment in Lebanon.

In this light, Assad's statement appears to be more of a kiss off than a sign of cooperation. On the same day as Ban's visit, the Syrian government sentenced one of the country's most prominent human rights lawyers, Anwar al-Bunni, to five years in prison for spreading "false information" about torture in Syrian prisons. Bunni, who signed a declaration calling for normal relations between Lebanon and Syria, ran a civil rights organization started with EU support. It's hard not to see the timing of his arrest as a pointed snub to the West, international organizations, and the Lebanese government.

There are other signs that Syria is preparing for confrontation with the UN, America and Israel. A large Syrian military delegation has been visiting Teheran since April 18th. And the regime appears to be using the recent parliamentary elections -- which were even more tightly controlled by the government than usual -- and an upcoming presidential referendum -- to consolidate power even more tightly in its hands.

It's impossible to know exactly what the Syrians are expecting, but it's easy to guess. A US attack on Iran, combined with an Israeli attack on Syria and Lebanon is one worrying scenario. The other is that the UN Security Council -- spurred on by the US and France -- will establish a UN tribunal in Lebanon by fiat. Syria is unlikely to take either action sitting down.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Damascus