October 20, 2007 3:05

Iran's Crisis Deepens As Larijani Resigns

Posted by Scott MacLeod | Comments (9) | Permalink | Trackbacks (0) | Email This

Major news--perhaps bad news-- out of Tehran today:

Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, and Iran's chief negotiator with international bodies over Iran's controversial nuclear program, is reported to have abruptly resigned his post.

Little information has surfaced thus far about Larijani's reasons, but it can be assumed that the abrupt resignation by such a key figure suggests a serious crisis within the Iranian regime concerning how to handle the international dispute over Iran's nuclear program. The Bush administration has warned Iran that it faces possible military action if it does not voluntarily abandon its uranium enrichment program.

It appears to be a significant domestic political boost at least in the short term for Larijani's rival, President Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad's spokesman Ghloam-Hossein Elham announced Larijani's resignation at a weekly press briefing. Elham also said that another close Ahmadinejad ally, Deputy Foreign Minister for European and American Affairs Saeed Jalili, would probably replace Larijani.

On paper and often in practice, Larijani held more sway over Iranian foreign policy than Ahmadinejad. The SNSC formulates foreign and security policy under the authority of Iran's Supreme Leader and the SNSC chief has thus played a more influential role than the president, who is merely one member of the council.

Although a staunch conservative, Larijani is a strong proponent within the Iranian regime for cooperation with the West, and is known to have been upset by anti-Israel rhetoric by Ahmadinejad that seriously damaged Iran's international standing. As the main interlocutor with the West in Iran's efforts to head off further sanctions and win agreement for its nuclear program to continue, Larijani's cause was not aided by Ahmadinejad's recent speech at the U.N. in which he declared the nuclear issue over.

Elham told reporters that Larijani had tried to resign before but the president had refused to accept his resignation. The two were rivals in the 2005 presidential election and have maintained an increasingly stormy relationship ever since. His departure indicates that the Supreme Leader was willing to side with Ahmadinejad in the power struggle. Unless the Larijani-Ahmadinejad friction was purely personal, this would suggest that Iran may be in no mood right now to acquiesce to U.S. pressure and suspend its enrichment efforts even temporarily.

Given Larijani's experience and pragmatic outlook, his absence could deal a serious blow to Iran's efforts to negotiate a successful outcome of its international dispute. He was scheduled to have another meeting on the issue next week with European envoy Javier Solana. He may be quitting in part to prepare himself to make a major challenge to Ahmadinejad in the next presidential balloting due in 2009. But if the nuclear standoff continues, Iran's crisis may have significantly worsened by the time voters go to the polls.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo

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Reader Comments (9)

THOMAS BILLIS:

It is what we always do.By ratcheting up the rhetoric we put them in a defensive crouch and make the hardliners look good.It is just amazing to me that to control oil we manufacture situations that may look good in the short run but in the long term harm our interests.I am sure they see that having a nuclear weapon will stave off an American invasion of their country.By slowing down on the rhetoric and making attempts at negotiation maybe we could have strengthened the moderates.If they tell us to screw off the planes with the bombs will still be there.What have you lost in the attempt?

Posted by THOMAS BILLIS | October 20, 2007 4:24 PM

leon:

Iran will amerge with a nuclear weapon, all you hhave to do is do a Google search of "May 15 Prophecy and you will see.

Read the May 15th Prophecy for 100% accuracy of what going on in Iran, Iraq,Lebabon, Turkey and the greater Middle East

It has gotten everything right, the May 15th Prophecy

Posted by leon | October 20, 2007 10:37 PM

Farzad:

Indeed resignation of the Mr. Larijani is a bad news coming out of Iran. Although, Mr. Larijani was conserative he was more moderate than Mr. Ahmadinejad. I think the regime is preparing to go with all of its power against the U.S. Another possiblity is Mr. Larijani is prepare for the parliament election in March 2008, this way they might want to undermine Mr. Ahmadinejad's power.

Posted by Farzad | October 20, 2007 10:41 PM

Joe:

To much for Iranian and US Algiers accord which supposed to legally stop US interference in Iranian internal affair.
Repost of relevant comment:
"This is precisely the mechanism that exists in Iran and stifles democracy and accountability in that country, its not about Islam, its about power"
And white western states do not want power, right! One man rule served much of world and Iran in particular well before shorts and tunics were invented by Greek inspired western world, freedom from prejudice against religions/races/self governing were practiced in Iran and her realm well before and after western system of citizens and barbarians classman ship which still exist today, weak states desire democracy, strong states desire power instead as it is evident in time of Cyruses/Alexanders/Ceasers/Napoleons/Victorians and today Americans, since US became a worldly power after WWII when did she gave a hoot about their citizens and their democratic desires against militarism from Vietnam to Iraq, get one fact straight, Iranian haven't landed in democratic shores and imposed their system on them today, it's white European and their descendant in colonies and militaries which are in Afghanistan to Israel and in fact all over Africa/Asia continent, any self respecting older and richer culture will oppose a newbie foreign culture, Chinese haven't bought it so does Iranians, democracy, please, save it!

Posted by Joe | October 20, 2007 11:23 PM

Arvin:

It's a CRISIS that a government now in opposition to the policies of west over their nuclear program has yet to resolve the problems among themselves.anyway, this tells us that the Iranian supreme leader has thrown his weight behind hard-liner Ahmadinejad. what Larijai has done, on one hand creates a good picture of him,as a man of peaceful intentions, for the 2009 elections, on the other hand it shows that Islamic Fascism is on the way. I wonder how the west is going to deal with this new an-Ahmadinejad-ally negotiator.

Posted by Arvin | October 20, 2007 11:26 PM

Hamed:

it's not definitely a good news for Iranian because the most important thing that they need these days is stability in their foreign policy.
Resignation of Larijani may cost a lot to Iran's government and decrease the prssures on Mr.Ahmadinejad. however, taking a look at other comments I saw that every one has tried to analayze Iran's political situation ignorantly, and also tried to priscribe something for this Patient!
But as an Iranian I truly believe that our condition here is totally different. I think western countries instead of imposing sanction on Iran which are aimless but just put them against people; should support people's campaigns inside Iran. My country is very young and as you know youngsters need to be guided.

Posted by Hamed | October 21, 2007 1:05 AM

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