December 31, 2007 7:54

2007: Enjoy It While It Lasts

Posted by Andrew Lee Butters | Comments (15) | Permalink | Trackbacks (0) | Email This

This past year was a good one in the Middle East at least in one sense: there was no new regional war. At the beginning of the year, you'll remeber I started this blog with no small amount of apprehension. Would there be another war between Israel and its enemies in Lebanon or Syria? Would America and Iran come to blows over Iran's nuclear weapons program and its support of insurgents in Iraq? Would the sectraian killing between Sunnis and Shia in Iraq spread to other countries in the region, such as Lebanon?

The fact that these dire scenarios didn't play out is probably due to to the fact that a fragile kind of stability returned to Iraq, thanks either to the surge in American soldiers, or the new American strategy of protecting Iraqi civilians, or simply because sectarian militias finished round one of the Iraqi civil war by clearing out Baghdad's mixed neighborhoods. Either way, the chaos in Iraq was like jet fuel for the region's many simmering conflicts. With that heat down a few degrees, not much else has exploded.

But it's far too soon to celebrate. It's not just that the American surge in Iraq is due to end my mid-2008, there were also a few ominous signs this year that the status quo of regional semi-peace is unsustainable.

Kurdistan, the one relatively peaceful part of Iraq, suddenly looks a whole lot less stable since Turkey began staging operations against Kurdish militants in northern Iraq this month. By continuing a military strategy that has failed for the 30 years against the PKK (a group of radical Turkish Kurds who have bases inside Turkey and northern Iraq) Turkey is on its way to getting sucked into the Iraq quagmire. An alternative would be for Turkey to open peace negotiations with the PKK. But that's not going to happen anytime soon. Both Turkey and the US designate the PKK as a terrorist group.

Hamas' takeover off Gaza in June was scary on several levels, in part because of the ease with which they defeated the American-trained and funded Fatah security forces. Hamas are clearly a bunch of guys that need to be reckoned with, but the US and Israel aren't. America didn't invite Hamas to the peace conference in Annapolis, and Israel just ignored a Hamas cease-fire offer. A peace process that doesn't include enemies is a road map to nowhere.

Think Hamas is bad? Try talking to the guys in Fatah al Islam, and other Al Qaeda inspired groups that are gaining ground by leeching off the war in Iraqi, the Arab-Israeli wars, and just about every other unresolved conflict in the Middle East. They don't just want to fight Israel, they want to fight everyone who's not a Muslim. Fatah al Islam staged that uprising in a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon this summer, and these well-armed, Iraq-trained jihadis held out for months against the Lebanese army. Almost 60 years, since the creation of Israel and the creation of the Palestinian refugee population, these camps have become hothouses for radical groups that make Hamas look like the Boy Scouts.

So I wish I could have some more faith that 2008 would be more like 2007, but I'm afraid its going to be more of the same. Instead of using the goodwill created by the surge in Iraq to help heal old wounds in the region, we are letting them fester. I don't know what's going to break out in 2008, but I doubt it will be peace.

What do you think is going to happen in 2008?

--Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut

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Reader Comments (15)

p_lukasiak:

1) In Iraq, increased intra-Sunni violence caused by a) competition among the former baathist terrorists we are now supporting under the name of "Awakening Councils" for larger slices of the US bribes being handed out and b) competition between the elected Sunni theocrats who are supposed to be running local and provincial governments in Sunni areas and the former Baathist terrorists that the US is currently sponsoring.

and/or

2) In Iraq sometime this spring al-Sadr (with Sistani's blessing) will initiate a campaign of "peaceful civil disobedience" demanding the end of the US occupation of Iraq -- this will not take long to turn violent, when stuff like the entrances to the Green Zone are blockaded with thousands of al-Sadr's followers...

(The intra-Sunni violence may not occur if this happens, because the US will be in the position of attacking Shiites -- and the Sunnis would rather join in that effort than fight amongst themselves.)

3) In Palestine, a continuation of the genocidal war against the Palestinian people by Israel. Condi Rice will describe it as "more pangs from a particularly difficult birth".

4) In Afghanistan, the Taliban will continue to make strides.

5) In Pakistan, Musharraf will dismiss any newly elected parliament that tries to limit his power, declare martial law, and reassert overt control of the Armed forces. Islamic radicalism will spread as many of the foreign fighters who once were going to Iraq will flock to Pakistan, and the populace will gravitate toward the only organized effective opposition to Musharraf's rule.

6) A couple of key assassinations in places like Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Kuwait, etc, now that Iraq no longer provides the conveniently located safety valve for those who are opposed to their government's close involvement with the USA.

7) US efforts to continue to isolate Iran will be rejected by the rest of the world, because the Iranian mullahs will dump Ahmenijad because once Bushco is gone, the "hard line" response to US aggression will no longer be seen as necessary.

8) Oil will hit $125 a barrel, but will decline to just over $100 as a result of world-wide recessionary pressures.

9) In early November, the amount of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere will spike, as a Democrat is elected US President, and the entire world begins to exhale after holding their breath for the previous four years....

Posted by p_lukasiak | December 31, 2007 9:15 PM

OilGuzzler:

The best wishes for a happy New Year in the middle east would be for a nuclear wipeout-out of the entire area.

Posted by OilGuzzler | January 1, 2008 5:32 AM

Chaos:

1) The US will continue to succeed in Iraq to the puzzlement and consternation of Time Magazine.
2) al-Sadr's political fortunes will continue to erode as they did during all of 2007.
3) In Israel the Palestinians' genocidal war against the Jews will continue apace.
4) In Afghanistan an escalation of troop levels will mark the end of the beginning there as well, again much to the puzzlement and consternation of Time Magazine.
5) Pakistan will essentially remain unchanged with Musharraf always on the brink of collapse according to conventional wisdom but never quite managing it, much to the puzzlement and consternation of Time Magazine.
6) Continued mass owning of terrorist cells across the Middle East will continue apace.
7) Iran will face continued isolation and economic woes as their aggressive strategy is rejected by the world.
8) Oil will hit $125 a barrel and no one will really notice.
9) In early November, the amount of hot air will spike tremendously as Time Magazine and places like it erupt in wailing consternation at the election of a Republican president.

Posted by Chaos | January 1, 2008 6:59 PM

Jacob Blues:

What would really make for an interesting TIME magazine article/blog/whatever, would be an in depth investigative piece(s) on Pakistan. Not just the 30,000 Ft/Mtr view,

But really digging down into the tribal areas, Waziristan, etc.

The nitty gritty on what the intelligence arm (ISI) is/has been doing, its makeup and key players (including where the loyalties of such groups/individuals lean)

What mr. Khan has been doing since his in house arrest.

How things stack up with the border issues over Kashmir, and how that more local conflict for Pakistan, compares and constrasts with the assets/populace over the issues dealing with Afghanistan.

And what India thinks about all of the above given that it nearly went to war with Pakistan five years ago, and if any of the peace moves the two nations have made since then have improved things on the ground.

Posted by Jacob Blues | January 2, 2008 6:31 AM

Jacob Blues:

As for Fatah al Islam, part of the months long seige was due to the fact that the Lebanese army was barred from entering the Palestinian camps by an agreement made between Lebanon and the Arab League decades ago.

Of course, the other interesting question is why Hizballah, reportedly the protector of Lebanon, didn't bother to come to the aid of the Army in dealing with an obvious military threat to the state.

Posted by Jacob Blues | January 2, 2008 6:35 AM

p_lukasiak:

Of course, the other interesting question is why Hizballah, reportedly the protector of Lebanon, didn't bother to come to the aid of the Army in dealing with an obvious military threat to the state.

Hezbollah is not part of the "March 14 coalition" which formed the current Lebanese government. "Protector of Lebanon" is not a reference to protection of the current Lebanese government, but protection from Israel. And while Israel is cynical enough to actually support a Sunni radical group like Fatah al Islam in order to blunt the increasing influence of Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon, there is no evidence that they were behind the uprising -- but then again, lack of evidence of Israeli involvement has never stopped speculation and scapegoating of Israel for everything that goes wrong in the middle east.

Posted by p_lukasiak | January 2, 2008 1:16 PM

Shimon:

Will someone please tell P Lukasiak to crawl back under whatever rock he came out from under, human garbage like this is what is wrong with mankind!

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