Bringing Down the Barricades in Beirut

Almost as soon as Lebanese leaders announced an agreement that may end the country's 18-month political crisis (see my story "Lebanon Agreement Buoys Hizballah"), sanitation workers began taking down the protest campground that the Hizballah-led opposition had built beneath the Grand Serail, Lebanon's seat of government in downtown Beirut.

The protest campground was becoming an embarrassment for everyone -- a sign of the country's disfunction -- and everyone will be happy to see it go.

Hizballah supporters -- some of whom had been living there the whole time -- were heading home triumphant. "This is as a victory over the American administration," said one. "If anyone who tries to touch our weapons, we will cut off his hands."

Hizballah's Christian allies are seeing the victory as a legitimization of their decision to join the more powerful side, and keep Christians out of the feud between Shia Muslim Hizballah and the Sunni Muslim supporters of the government. "For thirty years, Christians have been marginalized in Lebanon," said one official in the Free Patriotic Movement, a Christian opposition group. "Now there can be more equilibrium."

Local shopkeepers were happiest of all. "I lost a year and a half of business" said one of the owners of a Puma sneaker store. "What can you do? This is Lebanon. The important thing is that we are open and hopefully the town can come back to life."

And indeed, there are also signs that Hizballah's victory in Lebanon is pushing all sides of the cold war for the Middle East towards pragmatism. Almost as soon as the Lebanese announced their agreement, Israel and Syria announced that they have been holding indirect peace negotiations with Turkey as an intermediary. A Syrian official told my fixer in Damascus that the Assad regime wants direct talks with Israel as soon as possible, and with American involvement.

Will this Summer of Love last? Perhaps. But Lebanon's sectarian system is built on balance among all the countries religious groups, where change is almost always violent. Hizballah will soon have a disproportionate amount of power -- a veto in the cabinet, a favorable electoral law that could give the opposition a majority in the next presidential election, and in case it ever feels threatened, the country's only effective military force. Hizballah needs to be magnanimous in victory, or sooner or later, the scales will tip back.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut