Bashar Wins a Big One

Maybe Bashar al-Assad is a chip off the old block, after all, judging from the diplomatic pageant in Damascus today. There he was, despite the Bush administration's vigorous five-year campaign to isolate Bashar, hosting an international summit on the Middle East being covered live on satellite channels including the BBC.

Not so long ago, the Syrian president and his regime seemed to be hanging by a thread. Trained as an ophthalmologist with little or instinct or stomach for politics, Bashar had come to power upon the death of his father Hafez in 2000 quite by accident, literally--the auto crash that killed his elder brother, the heir apparent in the Assad Dynasty.

The new leader seemed unsteady as he explored domestic reform, cleaned out his father's Old Guard, maintained Syrian hostility to Israel and friendship with Iran and backed radical groups like Hamas and Hizballah. Suddenly in 2003 he incurred the furious wrath of the Bush administration by backing jihadists and Iraqi Baathists when the U.S. invaded Iraq. For a while it seemed quite possible that the invading American forces might turn left and move on Damascus.

If that wasn't disaster enough, then came the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. A U.N. investigative panel implicated Syrian officials in the spectacular killing. Syrian denials fell on deaf ears among millions of angry Lebanese, who staged the remarkable Cedar Revolution a month later that forced an end to Syria's 30-year military presence in the country. In a region where change comes slowly, the speed of the Syrian exit was breathtaking. On a memorable Sunday afternoon we drove through a Syrian military checkpoint on the outskirts of Baalbek as I took my wife and daughter for a visit to the Roman ruins there. A fews hours later when we headed back to Beirut, the Syrians were gone. Three decades and then, poof! Gone!

Bashar, however, was not cowed. In 2006, he threw his enthusiastic support behind Hizballah in the Hizballah-Israel war. He famously denounced the leaders of Egypt and Saudi Arabia as "half men" for failing to follow his lead. Afterwards, he threw his support behind Hizballah's efforts to oust the U.S.-backed Cedar Revolution government of Fuoad Siniora and essentially succeeded. After Hizballah sent its army on to the streets of Beirut last May, Siniora caved in to a power-sharing deal that gives Hizballah a veto over government decisions.

This week's Damascus summit is powerful testimony to Bashar's success in playing the geopolitical game that his late father had mastered. It's also prestigious international recognition of Bashar's role in resolving the various disputes in the Middle East--from the Israeli-Arab conflict to the clash over Iran's nuclear program.

That recognition was palpably provided by the attendance of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the first Western leader to visit Syria since Hariri's assassination. Sarkozy's predecessor Jacques Chirac, a personal Hariri friend, had worked vigorously toward Bashar's isolation. Also in attendance were Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, who negotiated the Lebanon accord, and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose country is mediating a noteworthy resumption of indirect talks between Syria and Israel.

Thursday's scene of the four leaders on global television represents another defeat for the Bush administration's policies. It's policy toward Syria has now completely collapsed. If the Cheney strategists had their way, Bashar would have been removed from power, Syria would be a U.S.-friendly democracy, Lebanon would have become another jewel of the Middle East's democratic crown and the leaders of Hamas and Hizballah would be in Guantanamo Bay or worse. Instead, Bashar has put himself, Syria and its allies back at the center of events, as Washington watches it all from afar.

You can almost hear Hafez saying, "Way to go, kid!"

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo