In May earlier this year I saw George Allen in New York City when he was riding high and clearly running for President in 2008. That must seem a long time ago to Senator Allen, as over the past six weeks he has fallen from one of the top-tier GOP candidates contending for the '08 nomination to a tongue-tied, mistake-prone, freshman Senator on the verge of becoming the biggest upset in the 2006 midterms.

Back in February I wrote that:

Former Secretary of the Navy James Webb has seriously complicated Senator George Allen's plans to run for President in 2008. With John McCain and Rudy Giuliani dominating the early GOP 2008 polls, George Allen had moved into position as the leading conservative candidate running for president and because of that distinction he was increasingly seen as an early frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

Mark Warner's decision to pass on a head to head match up against Allen to focus on his own run for the White House was seen as a break for Senator Allen, clearing the path for Allen to begin looking ahead toward 2008. However, Warner's void left the Democratic field wide open and James Webb is now in a position to create quite a few problems for Senator Allen - not the least of which is that Webb has a better shot at beating Allen than Warner.....

James Webb is the type of candidate Democrats desperately need, and he has an appeal to the exact voters (middle class whites, concerned about national security) Democrats have been steadily losing the last 30 years. Webb is a 1968 graduate of the Naval Academy, winner of the Navy Cross and former Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan. He is a Zell Miller/Andrew Jackson type of Democrat, (the exact opposite of North Carolina's John Edwards) and is in a position to credibly get to the right of Allen on national security issues.....

Senator Allen still remains the solid favorite in this race because he is a formidable candidate in his own right and Virginia is a strong Republican state. But if Webb does get the Democratic nomination, Allen will have to put his 2008 ambitions on hold and take care of 2006 Virginia business first.

It was clear early on in this race that Webb (if he did get the Democratic nomination, he only won the primary 53% - 47%) was not going to be a patsy that Allen could afford to ignore. Because of Webb's pedigree and Jacksonian Democratic credentials he had the ability to sneak up on Senator Allen and win -- if the national Democratic tide were strong enough. But at the end of the day, because Allen was a relatively popular former governor and incumbent Senator in a red state, Jim Webb was always probably looking at a 53% - 47%, 56% - 44% type of loss.

This is of course all "pre-Macaca."

The "Macaca" incident has in hindsight completely changed the dynamic of this race in a way I didn't anticipate at the time. Some of this is the fault of the Allen campaign and how they managed the damage control, but much of it is a function that "Macaca" acquired the legs it had because of the fodder in George Allen's background on race. As much as we were right in identifying James Webb as a potential problem for Allen back in February, we were flat out wrong as to the effect of "Macaca" this August.

Bottom line, George Allen is in trouble. And if these next round of polls show this contest tied or Webb ahead, Allen will be in big, big trouble. This is not to say that this race should be chalked up to the Democrats, only that there is a serious, potential upset brewing in Virginia.

However, before one gets too caught up in the anti-George Allen fever of the day, Senator Allen has some powerful factors working in his favor. He has a lot of money, he is running in a red state, and Allen is a very attractive and likable candidate......usually. He won his Senate seat in 2000, 52% - 48% over a tough conservative Democrat in Chuck Robb, when most other close 2000 Senate races were going to the Democrats. But the biggest ally George Allen has, is he still has six weeks to get back on track. The Allen campaign would be smart to start unloading on Jim Webb today, because the longer this race stays tied or very close, the higher the odds climb that Webb pulls off the big upset.