Ian Bremmer on Iran, China and The J Curve

Ian Bremmer is one of the best geo-political strategists in the world today. He was in Chicago last week promoting his new book The J Curve where he delivered a fascinating presentation to the Chicago Council of Global Affairs (formerly the Chicago Council of Foreign Relations). Here are a few nuggets of insight I found particularly interesting:

-- Bremmer appeared to be bullish on the political situation in terms of stability for both Brazil and Mexico
-- He voiced concern about the long-term political stability situation in China, especially if there is a slowing in Chinese economic growth
-- Bremmer was very concerned about the Iranian regime and the worry that Iran's leaders actually preferred an international crisis as opposed to a peaceful resolution of the nuclear issue.

Political stability in China will almost certainly become a huge issue some time in the next five years, and because of the massive interconnectedness in the global economy this could have a profound impact on the U.S. Bremmer also suggested that $70 oil was covering up a multitude of problems simmering beneath the surface in Iran and that a plunge in oil prices could undermine the current Iranian regime to the point they felt compelled to provoke an international incident or war.

In the event you missed it, last week we ran a two-part Q&A with Bremmer on The J Curve (Part I | Part II). I highly recommend his book to anyone with an interest in U.S. foreign policy or global affairs.

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