Missouri is in many ways the bellwether race in the Battle for the Senate. First, from a pure numbers standpoint of the Democrats needing six seats to flip control, a loss in the "Show-Me-State" basically puts that out of the realm of possibility. And second, the way this race tips the next six weeks will be a good indication of where the entire election is heading.

This is a contest the Republicans should win. Senator Talent is an attractive young star in the GOP Senate caucus who lost a tough race for Governor in 2000 by 20,000 votes. He then came back and won by 20,000 votes two years later over Mel Carnahan's wife Jean Carnahan, who had assumed the seat under unusual circumstances following her husband's death (before the 2000 election) and win over John Ashcroft.

State Auditor Claire McCaskill lost a close governor's race two years ago to Gov. Matt Blunt 51% - 48% and thus starts out of the gate with a high level of name recognition and a solid base of support. However, McCaskill lost 90 out of 97 counties statewide (Update: Missouri has 114 counties of which Blunt carried 101 in 2004 against McCaskill, he carried 90 out of 97 counties outside of St. Louis & KC) and has a problem of being perceived as too liberal outside of metro St. Louis and Kansas City. Missouri is a relatively, culturally conservative state that President Bush won by 3% in 2000 and 7% in 2004 and running the standard Republican playbook hitting McCaskill as too liberal on judges, the war, and taxes should be enough for Talent to carry the day.

If not, it would be a sign that Republicans are going to be in for an awfully long election night. The fact that this race is a toss up speaks to the difficulties Republicans are facing this midterm. The current RCP Average in this race gives Talent a tiny 0.3% lead, 46.3% to 46.0%.