A new Keystone Poll in Pennsylvania 6 has Rep. Jim Gerlach ahead 44% - 41% among likely voters. This follows on the back of a partisan poll by Public Opinion Strategies showing Gerlach ahead by 11 points. Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum trails in all of the polls in his Senate race, which is what you would expect for the most vulnerable incumbent Senator this cycle. Gerlach is certainly one of the top five House incumbents the Democrats are targeting; and this latest poll showing him running ahead of Lois Murphy is not exactly good news for their overall prospects of winning the House.

Jim Gerlach's is rated the most vulnerable House incumbent on RCP's list and is #1 on the Hotline's Chuck Todd's list as well. If the Democrats expect to take over the House, this is a seat they probably have to win. If Gerlach is 50/50 to win on election day, Democrats are going to be hard pressed to net the 15 seats they need for control.

The recent polling evidence continues to support the point I made earlier this week (which the New York Times echoes today) that the Senate increasingly looks like a better opportunity for Democrats.