What is John McCain's 2008 Strategy?
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Senator John McCain's handling of the detainee issue with the President could have very long-reaching political ramifications. By and large, McCain had been doing a pretty good job over the last ten months aligning himself with President Bush and signing up high-profile Republicans for his 2008 run. McCain seems to have learned his lesson from 2000 that if he wants to be President as a Republican, he first has to win the Republican nomination.
As someone who experienced brutal torture as a Vietnam POW, I am sure McCain is acting on this issue out of personal conviction. So while the substance of his position may not be open to much compromise, the public relations angle of how he handles this blowup certainly is. Looking at this issue politically, McCain's approach only works if the McCain camp has strategically come to a decision that the Republican nomination is simply unattainable and that an independent bid is his only realistic chance to win the Presidency. But that logic doesn't make a lot of sense as McCain has no reason to think he doesn't have a very good shot of winning the GOP nomination.
At this stage in the '08 nominating battle McCain, Giuliani and Romney clearly look like the Big 3. And while Giuliani looks good in some of these early polls, McCain still has to be regarded as the front-runner. That is what makes this fight with the President all the more perplexing. Perhaps McCain feels his history as a decorated POW in Vietnam will provide him cover on this issue and in some sense it definitely does. But McCain has only so many more sticks he can shove into conservative eyes before he really starts to hurt his chances for the GOP nomination.
The political error McCain and his advisors are making, insofar as it relates to 2008, is that this isn't about the specifics of the policy, which will be sorted out in time and which McCain's war record does provide him cover with conservatives. What really hurts him looking toward 2008, as far as the nomination, is his unwillingness to engage in partisanship. As we enter the election season, partisan Republicans see President Bush getting engaged and turning the 2006 debate toward issues that will help Republicans keep Congress - and they see John McCain personally stepping in and halting GOP momentum.
Partisanship is what conservatives want to see from John McCain. One of the reasons the socially liberal Giuliani is acceptable to many conservatives is his willingness to be partisan. If John McCain still wants to be President - and if he wants to win the Presidency running as a Republican - then he pretty quickly needs to start picking fights with Harry Reid, Hillary Clinton and Chuck Schumer and not President Bush. If McCain is running for President as an Independent, then he's following a perfect strategy.

