One of the many new polls out today (see them all here) is a Mason-Dixon survey showing Democrat Harold Ford continuing to run a statistical dead heat against Republican Bob Corker, 43-42, with fourteen percent undecided.

Here's the write up on the poll from the Memphis Commercial-Appeal:

"It's a close race, and Ford has obviously gained some ground since the primary, when our last poll had Corker up by double digits in late July," said J. Brad Coker, managing director of the Mason-Dixon Poll. "Middle Tennessee is the battleground. Ford's doing well in West Tennessee and Corker is holding his own in East Tennessee," Coker said.

Both candidates are expected to spend significant time in Middle Tennessee. Ford headed to a county fair in Lawrenceburg Saturday after three rallies in Memphis, and plans to campaign at the Tennessee Titans game here today. Corker was in Nashville Friday.

Significantly, Corker is leading among the vital segment of voters who identify themselves as independents, 43 to 33 percent, with 23 percent undecided. Both candidates appear to be holding their party bases: Ford has the support of 88 percent of Democrats while Corker is backed by 76 percent of Republicans.

Coker, the poll director, said independents' votes "could be the key. The independents and Middle Tennessee voters will decide the race."

Without discounting the importance of the independent vote, Corker's support among Republicans seems on the low-ish side, and it'll be crucial for him to bring home the base vote in this race (It'll be just as crucial for Ford to turn out the black vote, which he's currently winning 91-3).

Certainly, part of Corker's troubles can be chalked up to the difficult political climate for Republicans this year. But even so, at its core this race boils down to the simple fact that Corker is seriously underperforming and Ford is overperforming initial expectations.

In today's Tennessean, columnist Larry Daughtrey looks at a few reasons why the Corker bandwagon seems stuck in the ditch:

* Corker has not recovered from a primary that was more bitter than even a close observer would suspect -- a primary in which more than half of GOP voters wanted someone else.

The primary opponents, Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, have made token gestures of support, but their followers are lukewarm, at best. There are elements in the party who would secretly like to see Corker get his comeuppance. [snip]

* Corker's credibility has become a subterranean issue, and it's gutted the effectiveness of his negative advertising. His incorrect assertions about the voting records of Bryant and Hilleary in the primary, called lies by some independent observers, have made voters distrustful of all his claims.[snip]

Corker may have undermined his best commercial last week, the one where he assures his mom that he reduced crime in Chattanooga by 50 percent. There are plenty of statistics out there to suggest this simply isn't so. The Democrats were quick to pounce with a claim that Corker was caught on film lying to his mother. Ouch again.

* Ford has proved to be tougher and smarter than expected. Tossing a football outside a sorta joint appearance last week, Ford called Corker "a wimp" for dodging more debates. It's only a matter of time until he puts the two words together: wimpy parakeet. Triple ouch.

This is a race Corker should win. But if he can't get off the defensive and start taking control, it's going to be a very late night (and perhaps a very disappointing one as well) for Republicans on November 7.