Before my RealClearPolitics days I use to be a floor trader on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange and when you are a trader managing multiple different positions in a variety of different sectors every now and then you would get hit with a macro event that would trump the underlying technical or fundamental conditions of a particular stock. Well in the political world we are seeing that in the unfolding Foley scandal, and the multiple moving pieces in what is an extremely fluid situation. There are a bunch of polls out in many different individual races the past few days, but I wouldn't put a lot of weight in any of them until we see polling that has been in the field this Wednesday and later.

The internal GOP polling that FOX News reported earlier today that Republicans were looking at massive losses if Speaker Hastert stayed on board was probably a leak designed to pressure Hastert to step aside, but that doesn't necessarily make that report worthless. Rasmussen Reports released information this morning, in polling conducted Tuesday and Wednesday nights, that 61% of American adults believe Republican leaders have been "protecting Foley for years." Hard to tell how much sentiment like that, if accurate, effects Bob Corker in Tennessee or Heather Wilson in New Mexico - 1, but we should start to see generic ballot numbers soon, as well as individual race polls taken after Wednesday.

I watched Speaker Hastert's press conference intently, and from my perspective I didn't see anything that was going to quiet this firestorm from the GOP's perspective and provide Republicans with an opportunity to halt the implosion and get back on the offensive. Perhaps the news on the Drudge Report that the lurid IMs were a "prank gone awry" will be the catalyst to halt the GOP free fall, we'll see. I am sure there are more shoes to drop on this story.

However, until we start to see some polling post Oct 4th the only thing I would say for certain is the political volatility has exploded, but I would sure be nervous if I was holding a lot of long GOP futures.