The New York Times has a front page story on the GOP fallout from the Foley scandal with a sub headline: "In Wake of Page Scandal Party's Religious Wing Appears Dispirited." Adam Nagourney goes on to write:

More immediately -- and more alarmingly for Republican strategists who have looked to the party's powerful voter turnout operation to save the party this year -- there are signs that the furor is sapping the enthusiasm of a group essential to Republican victories in 2002 and 2004: religious conservatives.

One little problem with this assertion, is it really true? From the evidence we have seen, to date, it is not.

There is no question that the scandal destroyed the momentum that President Bush and the White House had built with the refocus on terrorism and national security issues, culminating with the vote in Congress on detainees and interrogations. And I should be clear to say, this is not meant to be an argument that the Foley scandal has not hurt Republicans significantly, there is a real possibility that it has put the GOP in a hole so deep they can not get out of it over the next four weeks. But I think the damage, so far, has been more with moderates, Independents and libertarians rather than with religious conservatives.

As far as the extent to which it has ultimately hurt GOP '06 election prospects, I think we will have to wait and see more polling, and more importantly, see whether this story can sustain itself with the same intensity next week. Where Republicans have definitely been hurt are races like Rick Santorum and Michael Steele for the Senate. Both Santorum and Steele were facing an uphill climb (pre-Foley), but they had a hope that if Republicans could sustain some of the momentum President Bush had built, and had their campaigns executed well, they had a chance at puling out wins. With the Foley explosion likely to have destroyed two crucial weeks on the calendar and with it not only halting GOP momentum but throwing Republicans back even further, I think is safe to say the Foley scandal has put these races out of reach.

But Pennsylvania and Maryland were Senate races the GOP was likely to lose anyway. The real question is does this scandal provide the margin for the Democrats in Missouri, Tennessee and Ohio in the Senate, as well as 15-20 more House races than Democrats otherwise would have won?