Foley Fallout By the Numbers
Posted by wpcomimportuser1 | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Here's the detail on the AP-Ipsos poll, which was in the field on Monday, October 2 through Wednesday, October 4 - all post Foley. Congress job approval rating remains essentially unchanged, not totally surprisingly since it's hard to register much lower than an already dismal 25%. But here are the two questions most relevant to trying to decipher the potential fallout from Foleygate:
| Which comes closest to your feelings about the Republican leadership in Congress? |
|||
|
All
|
RVs
|
LVs
|
|
| Enthusiastic |
5
|
5
|
6
|
| Satisfied, but not enthusiastic |
31
|
32
|
30
|
| Dissatisfied, but not angry |
42
|
39
|
35
|
| Angry |
20
|
23
|
28
|
| How important will recent disclosures of corruption and scandal in Congress be to your vote in November? |
|||
|
All
|
RVs
|
LVs
|
|
| Not at all important |
18
|
19
|
21
|
| Slightly important |
15
|
15
|
15
|
| Moderately important |
19
|
18
|
16
|
| Very important |
25
|
25
|
24
|
| Extremely important |
22
|
23
|
24
|
Perhaps most interesting is that in the generic ballot question among REGISTERED voters, Democrats increased their lead over Republicans to 16 points this poll (54-38) versus the 12 point lead they had in the AP-Ipsos poll taken in mid-September (51-39). However, Democrats actually lost ground in the generic ballot question (albeit slightly) among LIKELY voters in the new survey, dropping from a 14-point lead last month (53-39) to a 10 point lead this month (51-41). That could just be statistical noise, of course, but it certainly is interesting - and not at all what one would expect.
By the way, that poll I teased earlier in the day containing bad news for Tom Reynolds is now available here.
UPDATE: Time's new poll also shows movement towards the Democrats among registered voters in the generic ballot question, up to 15 points (54-39) versus 11 points at the end of August (51-40).
