Here's a wrap up of the key Senate races in Missouri, Virginia, New Jersey and Tennessee from tonight's FOX Report with Shepard Smith.

Since then there is a new SurveyUSA poll in Missouri that has McCaskill up 3 points and has swung the RCP Average to McCaskill + 0.2. Right now, just strictly off the RCP Averages, the Dems would pick up 6 seats (PA, OH, RI, MT, VA & MO) and control of the Senate. Missouri and Virginia are still clear toss ups and Republicans do have pick up opportunities in New Jersey and the potential sleeper surprise of the night in Maryland. Michael Steele just picked up a critical endorsement yesterday that should help him build on his momentum coming out of his debates with Cardin. He trails by 5.3 in the latest RCP average.

Media Alert: I will be on the FOX Report With Shepard Smith tonight around 7:45 est to talk about the key races in the Battle for the Senate.

Robert Stacey, an associate professor in the Robertson School of Government at Regent University, writes in today's Philadelphia Inquirer:

But when serious threats to our sense of security or moral stability emerge, priorities shift. Woe to the candidate who trots out the latest figures from the Labor Department or the Congressional Budget Office at a time when Americans are feeling moral outrage.

The Foley scandal generated just such a sense of moral outrage. The political fallout from his misconduct will be clear soon enough, and like many other ethical scandals, it may take down or seriously injure more than just the guilty until the public outrage has run its course.

One thing is certain. In 2006, it's not the economy. It's morality, stupid.

Stacey could very well end up being right, but outside of the few Congressional districts where the Foley scandal had an obvious direct impact like FL-16 and NY-26 and the general public disgust registered in national surveys, I'd love to see him cite some specific evidence to support his hypothesis. I haven't seen it.

In fact, one number that caught my attention from the Daily Herald polls on IL6 and IL8 released yesterday was this:

In the 8th Congressional District race, only 2 percent of those surveyed in a Daily Herald/ ABC 7 Chicago poll listed it as the major reason they're picking Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean over Republican challenger David McSweeney.

To the south, just 1 percent in the 6th Congressional District listed the GOP page scandal as the primary reason they'll back Democratic Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth over Republican state Sen. Peter Roskam.

Those numbers seem to reject the argument that voters in districts around the country - especially Republican-leaning ones like IL6 and IL8 - are seething with moral outrage and will rise up and smite the GOP over the pervy Internet indiscretions of a gay Republican Congressman from Palm Beach, Florida.

Republican Pete Ricketts is thought by many to be a rising GOP star. But this year ain't his year, as he's running well behind in the only polls that have been taken in this race. Nevertheless, here is a recent commercial from Ricketts, working the only angle he has against Ben Nelson as best he can:

Two points on the John Kerry slam on our troops. When the Harry Reid land sale scandal broke, I wrote that the 527 Media would bury the story, and they did. This time, neither the NYT nor the networks will be able to contain the fire Kerry started and continues to stoke.

Kerry's remarks began as just icing atop the Democrats' contempt for the military. It's a subset of Jack Murtha's remarks about how the army is broken, how our troops are disgruntled and why we have to bring everybody out of Iraq to rebuild the force before it falls apart all together. Question for Messrs. Tester, Brown, Menendez, Webb, Ford and Ms. McCaskill: do you agree with John Kerry's remarks?

Sen. John McCain didn't agree and demanded - in pretty strong language -- that Kerry apologize. Which came out about the time Kerry was saying that only right wing nuts who've never worn the uniform or fought in a war were decrying what he said.

Kerry just made it much worse. He just held a news conference on it and insisted that his sneering remarks at Pasadena City College were aimed at the president, not at the troops. Look again at the film clip and judge for yourself. At the press conference, Kerry's words got more and more heated as he went on. He's still accusing Republicans of twisting his words, refusing to debate and failing in Iraq. His rather risible explanation for his remarks was that when he talked about those who didn't do well in school, he was talking about the Bush administration. At this rate, Republicans should hope Kerry keeps talking all throughout the week and until the polls close on Tuesday.

If Republicans really are depressed heading into this election, there's nothing quite like a public yelling match over John Kerry's willingness to insult U.S. troops to offer a little pick me up. After McCain called on Kerry to apologize, Tony Snow at the White House followed suit, adding that Kerry's remarks were "an absolute insult" to U.S. soldiers and their families.

Instead of taking his lumps and apologizing for his ridiculous comments, Kerry went off:

"If anyone thinks a veteran would criticize the more than 140,000 heroes serving in Iraq and not the president who got us stuck there, they're crazy. This is the classic G.O.P. playbook. I'm sick and tired of these despicable Republican attacks that always seem to come from those who never can be found to serve in war, but love to attack those who did.

I'm not going to be lectured by a stuffed suit White House mouthpiece standing behind a podium, or doughy Rush Limbaugh, who no doubt today will take a break from belittling Michael J. Fox's Parkinson's disease to start lying about me just as they have lied about Iraq. It disgusts me that these Republican hacks, who have never worn the uniform of our country lie and distort so blatantly and carelessly about those who have."

Nowhere in the statement does John Kerry address the substance of what he said. I understand that Kerry has been eager to show off his tough new, "I WONT BE SWIFT-BOATED AGAIN!!!" strategy that he thinks will help convince Democrats to give him another chance at the brass ring in 2008, but to trot out this tripe to defend an insult against U.S. troops is breathtakingly arrogant - and it's an absolute gift to the GOP seven days before an election.

Kerry's over the top response assures that he'll dominate the news chatter for the next 24 hours or more. And you can bet that Republicans in Congressional and Senate races around the country are prepping press releases as we speak (if they haven't already been sent out), calling on their Democratic opponents to disavow Kerry's remarks. It'll be interesting to see how that little drama plays out in the coming days.

Maryland tilts strongly Democratic, but what many people don't realize is a sizable number of Democratic votes in Maryland come from only 3 of the 24 counties in the state. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend got 48% of the vote against Gov. Bob Ehrlich, but only won Prince George's, Montgomery and Baltimore City. Prince George's county is the most affluent African-American county in the United States and is home to 320, 000 registered Democrats. Yesterday, Prince George's former county executive Wayne Curry and five fellow black Democrats from the County Council endorsed the Republican Michael Steele.

This endorsement carries an enormous amount of weight in Maryland's African-American community in the Washington suburbs. With Steele himself a Washington and PG County native, and his opponent a long-time Baltimore City congressman, Steele is well-positioned to eat into this traditional Democratic stronghold.

A quick look at the RCP Chart of this race shows Steele steadily climbing the last three weeks. He trails Cardin by 5.3% in the latest RCP Average. If he can pull to within 3 points the odds for scoring the big upset will increase dramatically.

Interesting that the two states that sandwich Washington DC may see the biggest upsets on election night.

McCain Calls on Kerry to apologize (via Drudge)

Senator Kerry owes an apology to the many thousands of Americans serving in Iraq, who answered their country's call because they are patriots and not because of any deficiencies in their education. Americans from all backgrounds, well off and less fortunate, with high school diplomas and graduate degrees, take seriously their duty to our country, and risk their lives today to defend the rest of us in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere.

They all deserve our respect and deepest gratitude for their service. The suggestion that only the least educated Americans would agree to serve in the military and fight in Iraq, is an insult to every soldier serving in combat, and should deeply offend any American with an ounce of appreciation for what they suffer and risk so that the rest of us can sleep more comfortably at night. Without them, we wouldn't live in a country where people securely possess all their God-given rights, including the right to express insensitive, ill-considered and uninformed remarks.

If you haven't seen the video clip it is 10 seconds long and right here. His words and tone say everything about John Kerry and it one of the core reasons he is not President.

Veteran Iowa political reporter/columnist David Yepsen writes today:

Democratic prospects are very good, but some Democrats seem overconfident. Polls aren't predictors, and they can close rapidly in the final days of a campaign.

In Iowa, the much ballyhooed Democratic absentee-ballot program isn't producing the results it produced in the last mid-term election. Democratic strategists still think they'll produce 10,000 to 15,000 more absentee votes than Republicans do, but that's not a comfortable margin heading into Election Day, when Republicans have the superior get-out-the-vote operation.

In his last column, however, Yepsen pointed to the new poll by Center For Rural Strategies showing significant deterioration of GOP standing among rural voters. The poll surveyed rural voters "41 contested U.S. House races"and found Democrats candidates preferred by a 52-39 margin over Republicans. That number was 45-45 last month, according to the survey.

Incidentally, this is the kind of survey that Jay Cost referred to this way:

As a method, I find this "polling of the X most vulnerable races" to be quite suspect. Not in and of itself, but rather because it inclines one to draw race-by-race inferences. But these sorts of inferences cannot be drawn. At all. I view polls like this as akin to entrapment - they are goading you into making an inferential error.

That isn't to say the thrust of the poll isn't accurate - it may indeed be that Republican support among rural voters is sinking this year - only that without looking at the data on individual races it's impossible to say how such a lack of support might manifest itself and what electoral impact it may or may not have seven days from now.

Today E.J. Dionne bashes Republicans for running negative, racist ads, highlighting the RNC ad against Harold Ford in Tennessee that has received so much attention from the media elite:

And there is what will, sadly, become the most famous advertisement of this election cycle, the "Harold, call me'' ad run by the Republican National Committee against Rep. Harold Ford Jr., the Democratic candidate for the Senate from Tennessee. To claim that an ad depicting a pretty blonde woman coming on to an African-American politician does not play on the fears of miscegenation on the part of some whites is to ignore history. My hunch is that the sliminess won't work this year.

A reader from Tennessee responds to Dionne:

I have lived in Tennessee for 50 years. Ever since 1970 when Al Gore's father turned against the Vietnam War and thought he did not have to justify himself to voters, Democratic candidates for statewide federal office have explained their losses by playing the race card. It has not changed. Only a blithering moron could look at the "Call me, Harold" ad and see subliminal miscegenation. The problem is that 95% of the Washington press corps, and, oh, 98% of the New York press corp are blithering morons. We hicks in Tennessee see a man who has conducted most of his campaign from a church pew and, for some reason, had trouble explaining why he went to a Playboy party. Gosh darn, we have running water down here, and even flush toilets. Oh, but thanks for reminding me: I have to wash my sheets for the big Klan rally Saturday night. Who is indulging in stereotypes here? Who is obsessed with the notion of a black man and white woman getting together? None of the Tennessee hicks that I know, but apparently most of the enlightened members of the fourth estate in Washington and New York, not to mention a couple of political science profs at Vanderbilt who would run over you to get in front of a camera or microphone to pronounce on something equally silly.

Harold Ford Jr. is going to lose this race, not because he is black, but because he is the scion (gosh we hicks know a few words) of the most corrupt political family in the state since the 1930s. He has moved from college, to law school, straight to Congress, like a champion blue tick hound bred for the hunt. His family has treated the Ninth District Congressional seat like a wholly owned subsidiary and if you don't believe me ask Steve Cohen, one of the most liberal members of the state legislature who thought he had won the Democratic primary for the seat, only to find himself challenged in the general election by Harold's questionable brother.

The last paragraph is a huge reason why Harold Ford is likely to lose this race and is something we pointed it out in our initial analysis. As for the racist nature of the "Harold, Call Me" ad, Ford himself told Chris Wallace on Sunday he didn't think "race had anything to do with that ad." I guess E.J. Dionne, Chris Matthews and other Washington liberals know better.

Ford was quite impressive in his interview with Chris Wallace this weekend on FOX News Sunday and he had run a great campaign up until two weeks ago when he crashed Bob Corker's press conference. Since then he has been stumbling, and he committed another gaffe this past weekend when he accused Republicans of not loving God.

The RCP Average in this race is now up to Corker +3.7% and unless something dramatic happens in the last week, Corker now appears to have established control. However, at only 36 years old, if Corker does go on to win I suspect this won't be the last Tennessee sees of Harold Ford.

Hard to believe, but true:

The 2008 John Kerry for President juggernaut just keeps on a hummin'.

In addition to the new chart of 2006 House races that went up last week, yesterday we put up a chart of the most competitive 2006 Senate races and all of the 2006 Governor's races. You can find all the 2006 races RCP is tracking here.

John posted an updated analysis on the House yesterday. Today, let's take a quick look at the Senate.

Dems are holding solid leads in PA and OH and smaller leads in RI and MT. With two polls in the last 24 hours showing Jim Webb edging ahead of George Allen, however, based on the RCP Avgs the Dems would pick up five seats if the election were held today.

Three new polls in NJ show Bob Menendez stabilizing a lead, and it looks like things are moving ever so slightly in his direction at the moment.

In Tennessee, Republican Bob Corker appears to be in control and has moved out to a 3.7% lead in the current RCP Average.

Missouri remains insanely close: The last two polls - including a CNN poll out this morning - show the race tied, and Republican Jim Talent is up just 1.6% points in the latest RCP Avg. Control of the Senate may literally come down to a few thousand votes in the Show Me state on election night.

Finally, Maryland continues to lurk as the spoiler of the year. Michael Steele is running a near flawless campaign and has the momentum. Yesterday he picked up more endorsements from the African-American community which cannot hurt his bid against Ben Cardin. In what is turning out to be a most unpredictable year, how ironic would it be if Democrats rode a favorable anti-GOP wind and knocked off six incumbent Republicans - including two from Missouri and Virginia - only to be stymied at the end by losing overwhelmingly Democratic Maryland to a black Republican? It's not out of the question.

In addition to the Senate, there are a host of new polls out this morning, all available on RCP's latest polls page which is updated continually throughout the day.

How stupid does Rod Blagojevich think the voters of Illinois are? There's a concept called "conflict of interest" which the public understands pretty well and most politicians treat with a certain amount of seriousness. Entering public life doesn't mean that a person and every member of their family has to quit everything else or stop doing business altogether, but it does mean that they should reevaluate any business relationships that might be called into question or give off the appearance of impropriety.

So it's especially insulting that Rod Blagojevich, who is careening his way to reelection amid a flurry of prosecutions and guilty pleas for corruption among some of his biggest political boosters, responds to inquiries about his wife's business dealings by assailing the questions as "Neanderthal and sexist." The Chicago Tribune has the story:

The governor's comments were his first on the matter since the Tribune reported First Lady Patricia Blagojevich received more than $113,000 in real estate commissions through a woman who holds a long-standing no-bid state contract and whose banker husband has business pending before state regulators. [snip]

"You know, there's a sexist quality to that story--somehow moms who have their own businesses, who are women, can't do things that way--that's implicit in that story," said Blagojevich, who is seeking re-election and is being challenged by Republican Judy Baar Topinka. "My wife is a professional. She's a licensed real estate appraiser, a licensed real estate broker who works real hard and does a real good job for her clients. ... There's absolutely no connection of one, at all, of one or the other."

The governor then jumped into a black SUV and shut the door, but seconds later climbed back out to continue making his point.

"Working women are very much a part of the real life experience today for families across our state. And to suggest she doesn't have the right to have her own business and pursue her own business is Neanderthal and sexist," Blagojevich said before getting back in the SUV.

The four real estate deals involving the Chicago couple, Anita and Amrish Mahajan, account for the only commissions Patricia Blagojevich received this year.

That's some "professional business" Rod's wife is running: 4 real estate deals worth $113K in commissions, all from the same couple who both have ties to state business. Nope, nothing worth looking at there you knuckle dragging, sexist reporters. The guy really is shameless.

Republicans thought they had fielded a halfway decent candidate in Judy Baar Topinka. Elected Treasure three times, Topinka was the only Republican with enough appeal to hang on when the GOP was swept out of statewide office in 2004. But she's been a surprisingly weak and truly uninspiring candidate. Granted, she's faced an unprecedented crush of negative TV ads as Blagojevich has emptied his huge war chest over the last few months.

But even with all the negative headlines and scandal issues surrounding Blagojevich she's been unable to gain any traction at all. Blagojevich's unfavorable rating in the latest poll is a ridiculous 57%, but Topinka is still pulling only 38% of the vote, while Green Party candidate Rich Whitney is rising into double-digits.

In a normal year and/or against a better candidate, Blagojevich would go down in a big way. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that's going to happen this year.

Headline from USA Today: If Dems take over the House ...

Headline in the Washington Times: Democrats wait in the wings with subpoenas

Anyone still interested in tracking what's left of the Katherine Harris for Senate campaign can peruse this profile in today's Washington Post and/or this one by Jim Stratton in the Orlando Sentinel.

In the WaPo story, Darryl Paulson, a political scientist at the University of South Florida, sums up the race this way:

"The only way Bill Nelson could lose this is if he got himself in a drug-induced stupor and ran naked down the main street of his home town."

Even that probably wouldn't do it.

"I'd like to welcome President Clinton. ... And I see she's brought her husband." - Mick Jagger, at Bill Clinton's 60th birthday bash on Sunday.

For a smart guy, Andrew Sullivan sure says some dumb things. Like this, where he sarcastically refers to Rick Santorum's latest attack on Bob Casey as "Christianism in its finest hour." Please.

We can all agree Santorum is getting desperate. And if you look at the chart of the RCP Average for the PA Senate race it's easy to see why: on September 1, Santorum was at 40%. Today, just eight days from the election, he's still at 40%. Nothing Santorum has tried over the last eight weeks has moved the needle at all.

Sullivan might have had a point if Santorum had said something akin to Katherine Harris's "if you don't elect Christians you're legislating sin" remark - and I suppose it's within the realm of possibility that Santorum goes there in the next week. But so far, he hasn't. Santorum's over-the-top attacks on Casey are about national security - the most salient issue Republicans have left on the table this year - and Sullivan makes a fool of himself by trying to fit such a square peg into the round, "Christianist" hole he's created.

So, too, does Sullivan like to smear the GOP as the party of bigots and homophobes. There is significantly more resistance to gay marriage on the right than the left, for sure, so Sullivan's characterization is correct in the broadest, most general sense. But take a look at the results from the latest Newsweek poll which breaks down the question of gay marriage and you'll see that one out of every three self-described Democrats and Independents is against any legal recognition for homosexuals whatsoever:

15. There has been much talk recently about whether gays and lesbians should have the legal right to marry someone of the same sex. Which of the following comes closest to your position on this issue? Do you... Support FULL marriage rights for gay and lesbian couples, or support gay civil unions or partnerships, BUT NOT gay marriage, or do you oppose ANY legal recognition for gay and lesbian couples?

	Marriage Rights	Civil Unions	No Legal Recognition
TOTAL	24	26	40
Republicans	9	27	58
Democrats	34	23	33
Independents	24	32	33

Note, too, that by combining the Republican responses you find that just over one out of every three self-described Republicans favors either full marriage rights for gays or civil unions. Given that I generally consider myself part of this libertarian-minded group, I find the constant use of broad, smearing strokes by a polemicist of Sullivan's caliber to be about as effective as a brain surgeon wielding a butterknife.

Rasmussen Reports just released a Virginia Senate poll showing George Allen trailing by 5 points (with leaners). This comes on the heels of a poll they did just last Tuesday which showed Allen up 2 points (with leaners). That's a seven-point move in less than a week. Without leaners it is only three point move, but with election day a week away, leaners very much count.

From our updated Virginia analysis:

If the direction of this poll, not necessarily the magnitude of the move, but the direction is confirmed by other major polling -- George Allen is in big, big trouble. This race had already crept up to #7 on RCP's most vulnerable Senate seats and Allen had real risks heading into election day just by his inability to shake off Webb when he was leading in the RCP Average. Now with Webb moving out to a lead in the latest RCP Average, the Allen campaign better hope this poll is a weekend outlier.

The only big news event in this race was the Allen campaign's dump of sexually provocative passages from Jim Webb's many novels. The conventional wisdom had been that this would hurt Webb in Virginia. Was the conventional wisdom very wrong? Did Allen see his numbers deteriorating and decide he needed to dump the Webb stuff? Or is this is just one poll taken on the weekend that will turn out to be an outlier? We'll find out soon enough.

Allen has now moved up to #5 on RCP's list of most vulnerable incumbents.

Interesting email on Connecticut 5 referring to my earlier post on the Courant poll showing Nancy Johnson now trailing by 4 points.

The story on that poll cited by John says that much of Murphy's success is due to him overperforming in the affluent Farmington Valley suburbs: "But the UConn poll apparently shows that Johnson's support there has been cut roughly in half, with Murphy leading among likely Farmington Valley voters by 52 percent to 36 percent."

I live in the Farmington Valley, and all I can say to this statement is: no way. No way is Johnson down by 16 here. I see the yard signs, most of which are for Johnson. I talk to neighbors and I know the people who live in the Farmington Valley. Yes, Murphy will do better here than Johnson's past challengers have, in part because the Valley has gone from Red to Purple in recent years, as many of the new arrivals are the sort of Volvo-driving, Starbuck's-patronizing bobos David Brooks writes about. But there is no way Johnson is down by 16 here.

A Research 2000 poll has just come out in CT-4 which shows Shays trailing by the same spread, 47% - 43%. Shays is generally considered to be the most vulnerable of the three GOP incumbents in Connecticut.

IL6 and IL8 are two of the most hotly contested races in the country, the former being one of the GOP's strongest chances of holding a vulnerable open seat and the latter being one of the very few chances Republicans have this year at stealing a seat from the Dems.

In some ways these district are like a pair of conjoined twins, with the eighth district being the more conservative of the two:

Republican Henry Hyde has represented the sixth since 1974. Republican Phil Crane represented the eighth from 1969 through 2004 when voters replaced him with Democrat Melissa Bean.

A new poll from the Daily Herald shows both races to be extremely close, with Republican Peter Roskam holding a slight edge in IL6 and incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean with a slight edge in the eigth. You can find updated analyses on these races here: IL6 | IL8.

One final note. Dennis Byrne writes in the Chicago Tribune this morning about a factor that isn't often talked about but could have an impact: the perceived meddling of the Chicago political machine in the affairs of the suburbs:

If you're a suburban voter and someone knocks on your door asking you how you plan to vote in the congressional election, you might want to ask for some ID.

Chances are the ID would have a Chicago address. That's because Chicago Democrats are being recruited to work against Republican candidates throughout Cook County and collar counties. [snip]

This may not sound like much of a deal to some Chicagoans who have no use for the suburbs to start with, but suburbanites, such as myself, might not like it because we, after all, live out here in part to be away from the city's lousy schools, higher crime rates and politics as it is practiced in Chicago. Suburbs to Chicago: Butt out. Do we send in squads of suburban Republicans to work Democratic precincts? Haven't you screwed up Chicago and Cook County governments enough already? Do we need lakefront and limousine liberals to tell us how to vote?

It'll be impossible to tell until after the election whether the assistance of Chicago Democrats - particularly to Tammy Duckworth's campaign - is a huge asset or whether it turns out to be a bit of a liability, similar to the way Howard Dean's "storm" of nutters from across the country ended up annoying the hell out of Iowa Democrats back in 2003 and January 2004.

For those who have the time and are interested in delving more into individual races, here are some additional columns worth reading:

Michael Collins in the Cincinnati Post yesterday wrote about how Republican Geoff Davis, a former Army Ranger and the curent incumbent of KY4, is handling the Iraq issue. (Get the latest on KY4 here).

Mark Z. Barbarak of the Los Angeles Times profiles incumbent Republican Heather Wilson's battle to hang on in New Mexico's first congressional district. (Get the latest on NM1 here).

In this morning's Newsday, Raymond Keating takes an in-depth look at Peter King (R-NY3).

Kate Riley of the Seattle Times wishes Democrat Darcy Burner was running against Rep. Doc Hastings in WA4 instead of against Dave Reichert in the eigth congressional district.

Good news for Democrats in Connecticut 5. The Hartford Courant has a new poll showing Republican incumbent Nancy Johnson now trailing Chris Murphy 46% - 42%. From RCP's updated analysis on this race:

Today's Hartford Courant poll from the University of Connecticut shows Democratic challenger Chris Murphy ahead by 4 points, 46% - 42%. The worst news for Johnson from the Courant story is this:

Geographically, the UConn poll also shows Johnson in trouble in one crucial area of the district - the affluent, educated Farmington Valley suburbs of Avon, Canton, Simsbury and Farmington. In her past two elections, Johnson has racked up tallies of 60 percent or more in these towns. But the UConn poll apparently shows that Johnson's support there has been cut roughly in half, with Murphy leading among likely Farmington Valley voters by 52 percent to 36 percent.

This is a potentially ominous sign for Johnson, as she will need closer to half the vote in the affluent Farmington Valley suburbs as opposed to a third if she hopes to weather the storm this year. These affluent, educated voters now moving towards Murphy are Republican-leaning voters who are almost definitely upset with the present course in Iraq and are taking it out on Nancy Johnson.

Furthermore, this poll cuts against some of the other evidence that we have seen from Connecticut and could be part of a little bit of momentum Lamont has picked up the last week. The three Connecticut House districts had appeared to be shifting away from the Democrats since August and Lamont's win, but the increased level of negative news out of Iraq may be giving Murphy a critical push at the end, which is also liable to be felt in CT-2 and CT-4.

This race is now ranked #25 on RCP's House list and is considered a Toss Up.

In the battle for control of the House of Representatives, RCP currently rates 10 seats as Leans Democrat, 14 seats as Toss Ups and 21 seats in the Leans GOP column. On the Democratic side there are 5 seats in play, all rated Leans Democrat.

Using an 80% victory rate for the Lean races and splitting Toss Ups 50/50 produces an 18-seat pick up for Democrats based on where RCP sees the House races this morning. (This will obviously change as we move seats from Lean to Toss Up and vice versa in the closing days.)

Republican Seats
Leans Democrat: 10 seats x 80% Win Rate = Dems Pick Up 8 Seats
Toss Up: 14 seats x 50% Win Rate = Dems Pick Up 7 Seats
Leans Republican: 21 seats x 20% Win Rate = Dems Pick Up 4.2
Democratic Seats
Leans Democrat: 5 seats X 80% Win Rate = Dems Hold 4, Lose 1

Net Democratic Pick Up = 18 Seats

Given the fluidity and uncertainty in this election and because so many of these races are very close, a break one way or another at the end could have an exaggerated effect on the final result. A hard closing move toward Democrats could see most of the Toss Ups fall their way, as well as a significant number of the Lean GOP seats. On the other hand, a firming of the Republican base coupled with a huge GOP get-out-the-vote effort could see Republican losses considerably below the current conventional wisdom. Based on the top 50 seats, as well as the Likely seats in play, we could see Democratic pick ups as few as 7 and as high as 37.

These low and high range scenarios are certainly not the most likely outcomes, but this is not like the last two elections where you could pin the House results into a 10-seat range with a high degree of certainty.

As closely as we're all watching the polls, it's surprising to hear someone such as Newsweek's Howard Fineman saying and writing that, "...an overwhelming majority of the American public wants Rummy out." He repeated that on Chris Matthews's show on Sunday morning.

Mr. Fineman has apparently missed the new Zogby poll released last Thursday. According to that poll, "Asked whether Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should be fired because of the situation in Iraq, 42% agreed, while 49% said he should not be fired. Another 8% said they were unsure." Which means Mr. Rumsfeld is about 10 points more popular than the president. It makes one wonder what it takes to penetrate the media's cocoon.

The Orlando Sentinel at the end of last week played up a poll showing Republican incumbent Tom Feeney in a close race with his Democratic challenger Clint Curtis.

The telephone survey, conducted last week by the reputable polling firm Zogby International, shows Feeney ahead of Curtis by 2 percentage points -- 45 percent to 43 percent -- among voters who have made a decision or are leaning toward a specific candidate.

Is Tom Feeney really in trouble? He won with 62% in 2002, ran unopposed in 2004 and says his internal polls show him with "a solid double-digit lead."

We'll find out how accurate this poll was in 9 days, but we suspect Tom Feeney will be back in the next Congress.

Tons of news from all around the country as we head into the home stretch: the final debate in the Ohio Senate race took place last night, as did a spar between Bachmann and Wetterling in hotly contested MN-6. In Illinois, more bad news for Rod Blagojevich yesterday as one of his big campaign donors pled guilty to taking kickbacks while sitting on two state boards. There's much, much more, all available on the RCP Politics & Elections page.

We've also launched a new page showing the current state of play in the battle for the House of Representatives. You can still access these seats ranked by order of competitiveness here.

Still on the sujbect of the House, here's a good piece of analysis on Illinois 6 and Illinois 8 from Eric Krol of the Daily Herald:

Roskam and Duckworth don't agree on much, but both campaigns do agree the race is about tied. They're left fighting for the 10 percent to 15 percent of undecided voters, and to ensure their base supporters turn out as strongly as possible.

The advantage on the undecideds would seem to break Duckworth's way -- if you've lived in the 6th District under retiring Rep. Henry Hyde and aren't the proverbial rock-ribbed Republican, odds are fairly decent you're fed up with either the war, the congressional page scandal or the economy's jobless recovery.

But the advantage on the base turnout would seem to break Roskam's way -- he's been a state lawmaker in the district and has a large corps of committed supporters.

He's also got what's left of the once-vaunted DuPage County GOP, assuming its chairman, Kirk Dillard, has forgiven Roskam for costing him the state Senate GOP leader position four years ago. It's worth noting that in the March primary, an unopposed Roskam collected about 50,800 votes -- 18,000 more than the three Democrats mustered collectively. The Duckworth camp doesn't concede the ground troops point, however, claiming the scores of college-age volunteers coming in to help give them a closer-to-even playing field.

If Roskam never pictured himself in a dogfight with a Democrat, McSweeney certainly didn't count on being down to Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean by double-digits in most polls.

Just two years ago, the 8th Congressional District voted 56 percent for President Bush. McSweeney viewed Bean's upset as more of a referendum on longtime incumbent Phil Crane than any sign of a true Democratic tide. [snip]

McSweeney's hope is to spend his own money on enough negative ads to bring Bean's numbers down and to count on the lower turnout a non-presidential year brings. Bean hasn't hit 50 percent yet, and there's a third-party, anti-war candidate, Bill Scheurer, who might pull votes from her.

Ultimately, what must be the most puzzling to the Republicans is that they cut a deal with the Democrats to draw up the state's congressional map to keep a 10-9 balance of seats. It's starting to look like they didn't draw those lines finely enough to preserve that advantage.

Get the lastest polls, news, and analysis on these races here (IL-6 | IL8).

This is funny. President Bush went all the way to Iowa today to help Republican Jeff Lamberti in his race to upset Leonard Boswell in IA-3, and this is what he said:

This campaign only ends after the voters have had a chance to speak. No doubt in my mind, with your help, Dave Lamberti will be the next United States congressman.

Oops.

Actually, wiith the amount of campaigning the President does (as well as the other heavyweights on both sides), I'm surprised we don't see this sort of thing happen more often.

Bush's next challenge? Trying to properly pronounce Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs' name on Monday when he heads down to campaign for her in TX-22.

This ad from Republican Michael Steele responding to the Ben Cardin/Michael J. Fox attack on stem cells has been generating a lot of positive buzz today. See what you think:

Here's the original Cardin ad starring Michael J. Fox:

An interesting local report on the battle for veterans in Virginia 2:

Military voters could help decide the 2nd District congressional race.

According to a Mason-Dixon poll for 13News and its partners at the Virginian Pilot, Rep. Thelma Drake has the edge with active duty voters over Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. While she's preferred by veterans, the gap is much slimmer.

Drake has been reaching out to the military and that work may be paying off. Case in point - a "Veterans for Drake" event this month drew around 60 supporters. That same day, a hastily-arranged "Veterans for Kellam" event attracted three supporters.

See the updated analysis on this race, which remains #33 on RCP's list of the 50 Most Competitive House races this year.

From the FEC today:

* Lamont will kick in another $2 million to his campaign. That brings his total investment in both the primary and the general election to a whopping $12.75 million. Ouch.

* The DSCC raised $9 million and spent $22 million between October 1 and October 18. Remaining cash on hand = $9.66 million

* The NRSC raised $3.6 million and spent $6.75 between October 1 and October 18. Remaining cash on hand = $8.9 million

A bit of good news for the GOP in Florida-16:

The First District Court of Appeal ruled that signs can go up saying a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron, if they also say a vote for Mahoney is a vote for Mahoney.

The appellate court both upheld and reversed parts of the lower court which granted an injunction stopping signs from being posted in polling places in counties in the 16th Congressional district.

The order prohibits the Secretary of State from posting its signs, which only mention Negron for Foley. The Judges said those signs "suggest favoritism on behalf of the Republican candidate."

Apparently, Democrats will not appeal the ruling.

Florida-16 is currently ranked #3 on RCP's list of the 50 Most Competitive House seats in 2006. This is unquestionably a boost for the GOP, though it's hard to quantify just how much it may improve their chances of holding the seat.

In 2004, there was a lot of talk about whether pollsters were correct to use traditional "likely voter" screens in their samples or whether a less restrictive "registered voter" model would turn out to be more accurate given the massive increases in voter registrations we saw posted all over the country. There's not much discussion of the subject at all this cycle, perhaps due to the fact that it's a midterm and not a presidential year, but it comes to mind because of the conflicting signals in this election and trying to get at just who is going to vote Nov. 7.

In some ways there are two very different ways to look at what is going to happen on election day.

1) Republicans are in big trouble. The generic ballot shows a huge lead for Democrats (over 15%) with fewer than 10 days until the election. Republicans in contested races are either trailing or polling in the mid-40's, and given the national mood toward the GOP as seen in the generic ballot, it is reasonable to assume that these races will break for the Democrats. With the close races tipping the Democrats way they are poised for substantial pickups in the House of 25 seats or more and perhaps the six seats needed for a majority in the Senate.

2)The generic ballot is problematic and is over sampling Democrats, pushing the raw numbers higher for the Dems than they should be. Trying to use the generic ballot to predict who will then win x, y and z house races is a jump that can't be made soundly. In 2004 the voter turnout was 60% of eligible voters. In 2002 and 1998 in the two previous midterms it was 40%. What if a significant number of that 15%-20% who aren't going to show up at the polls this year come from soft voters in the middle? These are the exact group of voters that are helping drive the big polling numbers for Democrats. What if they don't show up in these contested races at the same proportion they are representing in many of these polls? Following this line of thinking, it is possible the bulk of the races that the polls now say are close will actually go to the GOP because the pollsters aren't sampling a representative field of who will actually vote in the contested races.

Simplifying things dramatically, the first view is essentially the one taken by Charlie Cook, and it's why he is out forecasting a 20-35 seat pickup for the Dems in the House and a very good shot for them to take the Senate. The second view is the one taken by Karl Rove, which is why he believes the GOP will hold both chambers, losing less than 15 seats in the House and 3-4 in the Senate.

Both of these scenarios are logical, possible, and have empirical data to support their positions. The harder question is determining which reasoning will prove to be more powerful. Right now, when we drill down and look at the individual races to see where each contest is heading the data, at least in the Senate, appears to be trending toward the Rove position. The question is: will this movement in the Senate toward the GOP hold and will the House turn the same way?

You might have seen my profile on Peter Roskam yesterday. I spent last Friday on the trail with him, and one of the issues we talked about at some length was immigration. The reason I bring this up is because yesterday Roskam did an event with Rep. Sensenbrenner of Wisconsin, the leader of the "security first" crowd in the House of Representatives, which coincided with President Bush's signing of the anti-illegal immigration fence bill at the White House.

As in many other House races around the country, immigration has been playing a big role in Illinois 6. Roskam and the NRCC have devoted a considerable amount of resources to pounding Tammy Duckworth for supporting "amnesty," and I questioned him on whether immigration was an issue that would really move voters or whether it was - hearkening back to the words of Tamar Jacoby - just "Fool's Gold."

Roskam said that of all the issues he talks about with voters in the sixth congressional district, the subject of illegal immigration generates the most intense reaction. "You can feel it in the room," he said.

I asked Roskam whether he's concerned about a backlash on the issue or for being portrayed as anti-immigrant, pointing out that two years ago Republican Jim Oberweis was rejected by primary voters after he aired an over the top ad on illegal immigration that featured himself flying in a helicopter over Soldier Field .

Roskam pointed out a couple of things. First, he said there is a balance that has to be struck on the issue, both in tone and substance - something the Oberweis ad clearly didn't do. Roskam always starts by pointing out that he's very much in favor of immigration, so long as it's done legally and that the laws of the land are being enforced.

Second, Roskam said he sees that voters' opinions have changed since the immigration rallies earlier in the year where large numbers of Mexican flags were seen flying alongside, and in some cases above, U.S. flags. He also pointed out that voters in his district got a replay of that scene just a few weeks ago when a pro-amnesty immigration group marched right across the length of the entire sixth district on its way from Chicago to Batavia to protest outside of Speaker Hastert's office.

I would assume the President's signing of the fence bill yesterday might help Republicans a bit on the margin, but Iraq is clearly the dominant national issue this year - perhaps especially so in