When the Baltimore Sun runs a headline six days before the election that says "Governor Race a Toss Up" you know things are not looking good at O'Malley headquarters. Maryland's Republican Governor and The Sun have been feuding virulently since Ehrlich upset Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (KKT) in 2002 to become the first Republican governor in over 40 years in Maryland. Ehrlich still trails in the RCP Average by 4.7%, but that includes a Washington Post poll that over sampled heavily Democratic African Americans and shows O'Malley ahead 10 points.

The Baltimore Sun's poll gives O'Malley a one point edge 47%-46% and it looks like this race is going to be a bitter dog-fight to the end. A positive for the Ehrlich campaign is the race is beginning to take on similarities to the 2002 race that Ehrlich won by 4 points, 52% - 48%. From the Baltimore Sun article today:

Through expensive television and direct-mail advertising, Ehrlich appears to be convincing voters in the Baltimore suburbs that O'Malley has failed to effectively reduce crime and improve city schools. Using his huge cash advantage, the Republican governor has steadily whittled down the mayor's lead in overwhelmingly Democratic Maryland. Ehrlich was behind by 15 percentage points a year ago and by 8 points in July.

Ehrlich trailed by double digits to Townsend for months before slowly pulling ahead in the fall and winning at the end. Now 2002 was a very different year in tone for Republicans, Maryland was coming off 8 years of a less than inspiring Glendening administration, and not unimportantly, KKT was universally considered to have run an abysmal campaign. O'Malley is a considerably better campaigner and 2006 is a much better playing field for Democrats than 2002. But Ehrlich has some assets of his own in a booming state economy, an endorsement from the liberal-leaning Washington Post and a very solid approval rating at 54%.

Hard to believe heavily-Democratic Maryland has two red hot races Republicans can win in such a pro-Democratic year.