President Bush carried Ohio by 3.5% in 2000 and 2.1% in 2004, while losing Pennsylvania by 4.2% in 2000 and 2.5% in 2004. Ohio's electoral votes (21 in 2000 and 20 in 2004) were crucial to Bush's victory in both elections.

Last year brought wipeouts for the GOP in both states as Democrats pounded incumbent Republican Senators Mike DeWine and Rick Santorum by 12 and 17 points, respectively. The gubernatorial races were even worse for the GOP as Ted Strickland won in Ohio by 24 and Ed Rendell in Pennsylvania by 21. Four incumbent House Republicans went down in Pennsylvania alone.

That's the bad news for Republicans. The good news is that on the Presidential level for this cycle these are two states Democrats have to win to get over 270 electoral votes. Given the Republican stranglehold in the South, Pennsylvania is for all intents and purposes a "must-win" state for Democrats. And while there are ways a Democrat can get to 270 electoral votes without Ohio, realistically it is hard to imagine any scenario where the Democrats could win the White House and not carry Ohio.

The newly released Strategic Vision poll in Pennsylvania gives Hillary Clinton a 10 point lead on Barack Obama (Clinton 35, Obama, 25, Edwards 13) and Rudy Giuliani a 25 point lead over John McCain (Giuliani 45, McCain 20, Gingrich 7, Romney 5). President Bush's job approval is at an anemic 29%, compared to 53% for Gov. Rendell and 52% for Sen. Arlen Specter.

In Ohio, the new Quinnipiac University poll also has Clinton ahead by 10 (Clinton 32, Obama 22, Gore 14, Edwards 11). On the Republican side Giuliani is ahead by 11 (Giuliani 31, McCain 20, Gingrich 8, Thompson 6, Romney 6). This is the first poll I have seen with Fred Thompson in the field, and the fact he immediately is drawing as much support as Romney highlights Romney's disappointing run to date as well as Thompson's potential to be a serious contender.

The head-to-head numbers have Democrats running better in Ohio than they are nationally.

Clinton leads Giuliani and McCain by 3 and 4 points (Clinton 46, Giuliani 43 | Clinton 46, McCain 42). At the national level Giuliani has a 4.5% lead in the RCP Average over Clinton, while McCain is ahead by 1.6%. Interestingly, Quinnipiac's Ohio numbers have Obama tied with Giuliani 42-42, but ahead of McCain by 8 points, 45 - 37. Nationally, in the latest RCP Average Giuliani leads Obama 44.6% to 42.4%, whereas McCain trails 43.5% to 42.5%.

Edwards' Ohio results are very similar to Obama's and show him up 8 points on McCain and ahead by one point on Giuliani. Edwards runs a little worse than Obama nationally, as he trails Giuliani by 4.6%, compared to Obama's 2.2% deficit, and he trails McCain by a point where Obama leads McCain by a point.

Given the Republican debacle in Ohio in 2006, the Democrats' better numbers in Ohio aren't necessarily surprising. The more relevant question is whether the Ohio numbers will begin to trend back towards the national polls or whether the Democratic tilt in Ohio is a harbinger of where the national numbers are heading.

My initial reaction is that, absent a continued string of bad news for Republicans, the Ohio numbers are likely to improve slowly for the GOP as we get further away from 2006, but the Republican tilt at the Presidential level in the Buckeye state for the last 100 years is probably history. If Ohio is lost for the GOP, that will put increased pressure on Republicans to figure out how to make up those 20 electoral votes, with the top targets being Wisconsin and Minnesota (it is not a coincidence the Republican convention will be in Minneapolis-St. Paul) or, if Giuliani is the nominee, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.