The One to Watch

Yes, I'll be waiting to see how the Big Three (Clinton, Obama, and Edwards) handle themselves tonight, but the candidate I'm most interested in seeing on the stage is Bill Richardson. He's running a very distant fourth in the low single digits in the national polls, but he's jumped up to third place in Kos's latest straw poll based in part on a very well received performance at Moveon.org's recent online forum on Iraq.

Richardson also just went up with a pair of ads in Iowa and New Hampshire to raise his profile further. Here they are:

In many ways tonight is a no lose for Richardson. All of the focus, pressure and expectations are on the Big Three, and with that comes very little upside and a potentially significant downside. So if Richardson can find a way to differentiate himself tonight in a positive way, it could help build on the little boomlette he's got going with the Democratic base.

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