Former FBI Director Louis Freeh endorsed Rudy.

Thompson will officially enter the race sometime around the first week of July, but not on the 4th. "Fred is not that pretentious," an aide tells Jason Horowitz.

There seems to be some confusion over whether John Edwards read the October 2002 NIE or not.

Chris Dodd takes a gamble on Global Warming ad buy.

Pat Leahy is fuming at Jon Kyl for putting a hold on a bill promoting openness in government because of concerns voiced by the Justice Department.

Obama upbeat about prospects in Nevada.

Sam Brownback released the following brief statement criticizing New Hampshire's signing into law a bill recognizing same sex marriage:

"In nations that have embraced same sex unions, overall marriage has declined putting families in jeopardy. This is a massive social experiment whose early results have been quite harmful to families and children."

"We know in our hearts and we know from all the social data, marriage is a union of man and woman bonded together for life. The last thing we ought to do is redefine marriage out of existence."

CNN goes to town on Jack Murtha's pork:

Loads more video clips in the RCP Video Vault.

This quote from the excerpt of Bob Shrum's new book appearing on Time.com is a dagger to the Edwards campaign:

Kerry talked with several potential picks, including Gephardt and Edwards. He was comfortable after his conversations with Gephardt, but even queasier about Edwards after they met. Edwards had told Kerry he was going to share a story with him that he'd never told anyone else - that after his son Wade had been killed, he climbed onto the slab at the funeral home, laid there and hugged his body, and promised that he'd do all he could to make life better for people, to live up to Wade's ideals of service. Kerry was stunned, not moved, because, as he told me later, Edwards had recounted the same exact story to him, almost in the exact same words, a year or two before - and with the same preface, that he'd never shared the memory with anyone else.

Siena released its new poll for New York today. No surprise that the New Yorkers lead in their respective primaries. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton extended her lead over the rest of the field:

Democrats
Clinton 42 (+3 vs. last Siena poll)
Obama 13 (-4)
Gore 13 (+1)
Edwards 7 (-4)
Undecided 15 (+2)

On the Republican side, Siena conducted two separate horse race questions. The first included all of 10 declared candidates plus Pataki:

Republicans
Giuliani 52 (+5 vs last Siena poll)
McCain 14 (-2)
Romney 7 (-1)
T. Thompson 4 (na)
Paul 2 (na)
All Others 1
Undecided 17 (+1)

The second question put Fred Thompson and Gingrich in the mix with the three first tier candidates and excluded everyone else:

Republicans
Giuliani 50
McCain 12
F. Thompson 8
Romney 7
Gingrich 7
Undecided 15

Head-to-Head Match Ups
Clinton 52 - Giuliani 39
Clinton 54 - McCain 36
Clinton 57 - F. Thompson 29

Obama 50 - Giuliani 40
Obama 50 - McCain 33

Gore 56 - F. Thompson 28

To see all the latest polls on 2008, click here.

The long-simmering internecine feud on the Right over immigration has taken an interesting turn. The editors of National Review, who embody the "enforcement-first" wing of the Right, have challenged the editors of the Wall Street Journal editorial page, who champion the "comprehensive" view, to a debate.

A bit of background for those readers unfamiliar with this: For a couple years now, the Wall Street Journal editorial page has singled out various conservative publications for criticism in its pages, publications like National Review, the Washington Times, etc. which don't believe the country should embark on comprehensive immigration reform without first securing the borders. In fairness to the editors of the Journal, at times the enforcement-first wing has clung to a non-negotiable position, namely, that under no circumstances should the United States create a path for citizenship for illegal immigrants. In fairness to National Review, the Journal has at times used incendiary and obtuse language to describe its opponents.

The pot boiled over finally when the Journal editorial board, which has begun taping its editorial board meetings, went on an NR-bashing session last week. It is a bit beneath the reputation of the Journal editorial board to have done this, but that it did so perhaps highlights the disconnect on the Right over immigration.

Today, the editors of NR responded:

We hereby challenge the Journal's editors to debate the immigration bill in a neutral venue with a moderator of their choosing -- two or three of us versus any two or three of them. We propose to do it in Washington next week so it will have the maximum impact on the Senate's consideration of the most sweeping immigration reform in decades (time and place to be worked out in a mutually satisfactory fashion).

It shouldn't be a problem for the Journal's editors to take up this challenge, since opponents of the bill aren't "rational" on the question, have no arguments, and are "foaming at the mouth," as they explained in a videotaped session of one of their editorial meetings last week.

Here's hoping the Journal's editors accept the challenge, not only for the spectator value involved, but also -- and more importantly -- because this is a debate worth having, certainly from the top conservative editors in the country. It recalls a time when many of the Right's most fervent battles were waged within the movement itself, battles that were at the same time exciting, smart and good for the country.

To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war.

New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch signed a legalizing civil unions for same-sex couples, becoming the fourth state to legalize such unions.

The Greenville News reports that Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) told a crowd yesterday he would "definitely" filibuster the Senate immigration bill when it comes to the floor next month. DeMint said before Congress recessed for Memorial Day he didn't have the 40 votes needed to sustain the filibuster and prevent a cloture vote.

DeMint became a leading foe of the immigration compromise last week when he offered an amendment to eliminate Z-visas that would allow immigrants to stay indefinitely once obtained. The amendment was defeated but split the GOP almost down the middle: 20 voted in favor of the amendment, 25 against.

Even before Fred Thompson made an overt gesture that he'll run for president, he was doing well in the polls, but now he must sprint to stay in the Republican top-tier and perform well in a crucial summer test.

The Washington Post's Michael Shear and Dan Balz report that GOP strategists caution that Thompson will "need a more refined message and an error-free start to live up to the publicity surrounding his all-but-certain candidacy." Tomorrow a committee will start to raise money for Thompson and in the next few weeks the campaign will launch a Web site, select a campaign headquarters and dust-off his iconic red pickup truck the former Tennessee senator used in his first, highly-successful campaign. This weekend Thompson will be speaking in Virginia and then on Jay Leno in June.

"But his celebrity and relatively late start in the contest mean that Thompson will face immediate challenges that a less-celebrated candidate might not," Shear and Balz write. "Questions about his viability would arise if there should be anything less than strong performances in his first debates, in his ability to raise funds quickly, or in rapidly assembling organizations in states with early contests next year."

One such challenge will likely be the Ames, Iowa, straw poll on Aug. 11, about a month after Thompson plans to formally announce in early July, reports The Politico's Jonathan Martin. The Iowa GOP's executive director predicted Thompson will be on the ballot at the same time some Thompson advisers are urging him not to participate. The Ames poll will be the first major test of Republicans' support in that key primary state and has a history of thinning the GOP field.

Even sooner will be the June 5 GOP debate that Thompson will be eligible to participate in after he makes his FEC filing the day before, reports the New Hampshire Union Leader's Tom Fahey.

Thompson's real potential may be felt among the majority of President Bush's Florida fundraisers, who are "sitting on the sidelines" of the presidential race so far, reports the St. Petersburg Times' Adam Smith. Thompson has created buzz among conservatives who are unenthusiastic about the current field, which is one possible reason the Bush donors aren't giving yet. Next door in South Carolina, two lawmakers said they would back Thompson yesterday.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney said Democrats are wrong to advocate a single, federal system for health care and that states should experiment with reforms, reports Radio Iowa's O. Kay Henderson. As governor of Massachusetts Romney signed a health care reform law that requires residents to get health insurance and requires businesses to provide health care coverage or pay a fine. Romney said what was needed was a market-based approach to health care rather than "government-mandated, government-run, government insurance." Rudy Giuliani called Hillary Clinton's plan to reverse the Bush tax cuts to help pay for health care and other programs, "an astounding, staggering tax increase."

The Wall Street Journal's Jackie Calmes reports the Congressional Budget Office has indicated it "could not credit" potential savings from technology that are included in the Democratic health care plans because, while the savings are likely real, they're ambiguous and would take years to realize.

Get these and today's other elections stories at RCP's Politics and Elections page.

Bill Gates and Steve Jobs make nice.

Eric Krol reports that Bill Foster, multimillionaire physician and political neophyte, will enter the race on the Democratic side to replace Dennis Hastert in Illinois' 14th Congresssional District.

Foster joins Democratic State Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia, attorney Jotham Stein, and Jonathan Laesch, the former Naval intelligence officer who scored 40% of the vote against Hastert last November.

Quinnipiac is out with a new poll in Pennsylvania:

Democrats
Clinton 33 (-3 vs. last poll)
Gore 16 (+2)
Obama 13 (-1)
Edwards 11 (-2)
Biden 3 (+1)
Richardson 3 (+1)
Undecided 16 (nc)

Republicans
Giuliani 28 (-1 vs. last poll)
McCain 11 (-6)
F. Thompson 10 (+4)
Romney 9 (+4)
Gingrich 8 (-2)
Undecided 23 (+2)

Head-to-Head Matchups
Clinton 43 - Giuliani 47
Clinton 45 - McCain 43
Clinton 50 - F. Thompson 36

Obama 40 - Giuliani 45
Obama 41 - McCain 42
Obama 47 - F. Thompson 32

Gore 45 - Giuliani 44
Gore 44 - McCain 44
Gore 50 - F. Thompson 35

Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings
Giuliani 53/28 (+25)
Obama 44/19 (+25)
Edwards 45/26 (+19)
McCain 44/28 (+16)
F. Thompson 25/11 (+14)
Gore 52/40 (+12)
Clinton 50/44 (+6)
Romney 20/17 (+3)

Other notable numbers: Bush's job approval is at 29%, approval for his handling of Iraq is 26%. Sixty percent said going to war with Iraq it was the "wrong thing" to do, 34% feel it was the "right thing."

Chris Dodd is unveiling his new plan for Iraq in a live stream on Firedoglake.

Rudy to Fred: Welcome.

McCain challenges Giuliani and Romney on immigration.

Ben Smith reports Joe Biden will have the stage almost all to himself at the FOX News/CBC debate, since Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd have announced they won't attend. Kucinich and Gravel are the only other candidates scheduled to be there.

Hillary set to refill the coffers in a big way on Monday in NYC.

ABC News has a preview of Elizabeth Edwards' interview with People.

Romney: military needs more troops.

Bush seeks to double AIDS money to $30 billion over 5 years. In other news, Bush will meet Putin on July 1-2.

Incidentally, since Blake put up his post this morning, Giuliani has shed about a point in the Intrade political futures market (from 26.7 to 25.9) and Thompson has picked up another two points, putting him at 25.0, with Romney holding steady at 23.0.

To put the latest moves into a broader context, here's how each candidate has fared in the political futures market over the last month:

Rudy Giuliani:

Rudy's been on the slide since the first GOP debate at the Reagan Library on May 3, followed by the subsequent revelations about his contributions to Planned Parenthood. He recovered some ground after a strong debate performance in South Carolina on May 15 (capped off by his exchange with Ron Paul), but has been unable to sustain that momentum in the ensuing couple of weeks.

Fred Thompson:

Thompson had been bumping along in the mid-teens since the end of April until the middle of May. That was right around the time he launched his video response to Michael Moore which rang up hundreds of thousands of views over the following few days.

Mitt Romney:

Romney started picking up steam in the middle of the month, beginning with a Zogby poll on the 16th showing him surging to a small lead in Iowa, followed by his even more impressive 12-point lead in the Iowa Poll released on the 20th.

John McCain:

You can pretty clearly pinpoint the beginning of McCain's rather precipitous decline in the futures market to May 18, which was the day he stood with Ted Kennedy at a press conference to announce a grand bargain had been struck on immigration. It's been all downhill since.

Newt Gingrich:

Gingrich caused a mini-stir on May 14 when he told Diane Sawyer on Good Morning America there was a "great possibility" he would run for president. Since then he's reverted to his standard range between 2.5-3.0.

Joe Biden wants to know: "What is it you're willing to do to free us from the Axis of Oil and these outrageous oil companies who are sucking us dry?"

Forbes.com has launched a new feature to track the '08 candidates.

Today's big news is hardly news at all: Fred Thompson is running for president, which means two groups of people are very excited today: Conservatives and that unfortunate sub-strata of society known as political junkies.

First, the particulars: He'll be forming the pre-pre-campaign committee known by its proper term, the "testing the waters" committee -- which precedes the "exploratory" committee, which comes before the actual campaign itself -- near June 4 or so, reports the Politico's Mike Allen.

As for the official announcement, NRO's Jim Geraghty is saying that Allen's reporting of July 4 is wrong.

According to Geraghty's source, "There will be no July 4 announcement ... There was some discussion of a June 4 beginning of fundraising; that's the date checks will be collected. I suspect that's where there was some confusion."

If true, this is the wiser move for Thompson. A July 4 announcement would probably have rung a bit too haughty -- even for the supposed Reagan Reborn candidate. Moreover, the way Thompson's been running his stealth campaign so far -- slow and steady -- made Allen's July 4 date seem out of character. It also would have been extremely ... what's the word ... cheesy.

Allen also reports that Thompson could skip the Ames, Iowa, straw poll on Aug. 11, which, if Rudy Giuliani also takes a pass, could make the heretofore all-important straw poll somewhat meaningless.

But now that the "Fred has landed," as one Thompson adviser put it to Allen, let's consider the polls:

Nationally, Thompson hasn't much budged from his low-to-mid-teens placement, essentially putting him in a tie with Mitt Romney. Here is today's RCP Average:

Giuliani 26
McCain 18.2
Romney 10
Thompson 10
Gingrich 7.4

On the other hand, the political futures markets tell a slightly different story. Here are Intrade's numbers:

Giuliani 26.7
Romney 23
Thompson 23
McCain 17.5
Gingrich 2.5

These numbers shouldn't be confused with polling numbers. However, as a gauge of the candidates' strengths, Intrade's numbers are a useful indicator of not only support, but also enthusiasm and expectations.

In the RCP Average for Iowa:

Romney 20.2
McCain 19
Giuliani 18.6
Thompson 8.5
Gingrich 6.3

In the RCP Average for New Hampshire:

Romney 30
McCain 23.7
Giuliani 21
Thompson 6.7

In the RCP Average for South Carolina:

McCain 24
Giuliani 20
Thompson 13.3
Gingrich 11.7
Romney 9

Finally, in the RCP Average for Florida:

Giuliani 29.8
McCain 16.3
Thompson 13.5
Romney 12
Gingrich 7.7

So clearly Thompson has his work cut out for him, although any candidate who comes this late to the game would surely take his numbers in a second.

Hillary Clinton's line yesterday that it's "time to reject the idea of an 'on your own' society and to replace it with shared responsibility for shared prosperity," a "we're all in it together"' society isn't new. In fact, it may not even be hers.

A year ago Howard Fineman had dinner with Bill Clinton's campaign strategist James Carville, who "doesn't speak for the Clintons, but he speaks to the Clintons." During their chat, Carville previewed two messages that have since become part of Hillary Clinton's campaign rhetoric.

First, sacrifice for the common good:

"Every man for himself" is the last order of a weak, failed commander. "All hands on deck" is the order of a successful commander. What we need is what I call "progressive patriotism." Everybody pitches in, all hands on deck, not for the idea of "sacrifice," but for survival. Why do you get to drive that SUV all the time with no consequences? Well, you don't. And what if we raise the Social Security retirement age by a few more months -- and faster? Isn't that worth it to save the system?"

Clinton hasn't talked about raising the retirement age but did call for higher taxes and requiring oil companies to invest in alternative energy.

Second, Carville talked populism:

A lot of people in the party think we ought to take a more populist line. Look at the giant checks the oil company executives get; then look at what's happening to average workers.

Clinton did exactly that, saying that the economy is growing, but mostly for corporations, not the households -- "trickle-down economics, but without the trickle," she called it.

Barack Obama offered up his plan for health care yesterday in Iowa, where he said the political climate is more hospitable to a broad, universal-coverage plan than it was in the early 1990s when the Clinton administration tried, reports the Washington Post's Anne Kornblut and Perry Bacon, Jr.

The plan could cost more than $50 billion, paid in part by increasing taxes on those who make more than $250,000 per year and reversing the Bush tax cuts. Key to the plan would be the requirement that almost all employers "offer insurance to workers or face a tax penalty, an idea that many businesses abhor and that is also" in John Edwards' proposal. "This employer mandate drove much of the opposition to the Clinton plan in 1994." The Obama plan doesn't include a "popular idea from both Democrats and Republicans who work on health-care issues:" an individual mandate that requires Americans to buy health insurance and was featured as part of the Massachusetts health care plan pushed by Mitt Romney last year. The Clinton and Edwards campaigns criticized Obama's campaign for not being truly universal.

For both Clinton and Obama, making health care more affordable is the "tale of two villains:" drugmakers for Obama and insurers for Clinton, writes Bloomberg's Aliza Marcus. Obama wants the government to "negotiate drug price-discounts for Medicare ... spur wider use of cheaper generic copies of pharmaceuticals and allow Americans to buy lower-priced medicines from Europe and Canada." Clinton plans to bar insurers from "cherry picking" who they sign up and prevent them from charging "higher rates to those in ill health."

As Obama unfolded his health plan, Clinton talked up her economic plan yesterday in New Hampshire, reports the New York Sun's Russell Bermann. Clinton drew the most attention for saying that it's "time to reject the idea of an 'on your own' society and to replace it with shared responsibility for shared prosperity. I prefer a 'we're all in it together' society." However, she did detail some planks of her economic policy: let the Bush tax cuts expire for those making more than $200,000, "scrap subsidies for oil and gas companies, and require large oil companies to invest in alternative energy or pay into a national research fund." Clinton wants "greater scrutiny of the salaries of chief executive" and is pushing to make sure companies cannot "defer taxes on profits they earn overseas" to halt outsourcing.

Clinton said, "It's not as if America hasn't been successful economically these past years. But the measure of success doesn't relate to what's happening in households across our country, because, while productivity and corporate profits are up, the fruits of that success just haven't reached many of our families. It's like trickle-down economics, but without the trickle."

On the campaign trail Clinton got major endorsements out West. First, Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa endorsed Clinton after being courted by the senator and her husband, reports the New York Times' Patrick Healy. Villaraigosa has a "network of supporters as mayor of the nation's second-largest city and as a former speaker of the State Assembly, and he is widely seen as a rising star in the party and a national spokesman on Hispanic concerns like immigration and education."

In Nevada, Clinton scored the endorsements of the last Democratic governor and 34 black leaders, including Robert Fowler, pastor of a 9,000-member Baptist church in Las Vegas. Fowler said he chose Clinton because of experience and "political savvy." Folwer said, "I believe that Sen. Obama has a day, I just don't believe that this is the day, personally."

Meanwhile, The Politico's Mike Allen reports Fred Thompson will announce his bid for president over the July 4 weekend and has already formed a committee to raise money and pay some staffers. Thompson's policy team remains under wraps.

Get these and today's other elections stories at RCP's Politics and Elections page.

Hillary Clinton told a New Hampshire crowd today she prefers a "we're all in it together society" as opposed to the "on your own society" of the Bush administration. Clinton also said as president she'll scrap corporate tax breaks and put CEO salaries under public scrutiny.

Giuliani heckled at event, sets record for length of handshake.

Hillary wins the Villaraigosa sweepstakes, as expected.

President Bush tells Congress not to kill the immigration bill, urging them to show leadership by solving this problem once and for all. (Video | Full Transcript of Remarks)

John Fund says Bill Richardson isn't ready for prime time.

Romney: I won't take a salary as president.

Obama lays out plan for universal healthcare. Edwards campaign responds. Full text of Obama's address.

Alaska and Georgia move up their primaries to become part of Super Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5.

Poll dump from ARG today:

Iowa
Republicans
McCain 25 (-1 versus last poll taken 4/27-4/30)
Giuliani 23 (+4)
Romney 16 (+2)
Gingrich 8 (nc)
F. Thompson 6 (-7)
Undecided 10 (-3)

Romney's lead in the RCP Average for Iowa is now down to 1.2%.

Democrats
Clinton 31 (+8 versus last poll taken 4/27-4/30)
Edwards 25 (-2)
Obama 11 (-8)
Richardson 9 (+3)
Undecided 14 (-2)

Edwards' lead in the RCP Avg for Iowa is now +3.0%.

New Hampshire
Republicans
McCain 30 (+1 versus last poll taken 4/26-4/29)
Romney 23 (-1)
Giuliani 21 (+4)
Gingrich 4 (nc)
F. Thompson 3 (-4)
Undecided 16 (+2)

Romney now leads in the RCP Avg for New Hampshire by 6.3%.

Democrats
Clinton 34 (-3 versus last poll taken 4/26-4/29)
Edwards 18 (-8)
Obama 15 (+1)
Richardson 9 (+6)
Undecided 14 (-1)

Clinton leads by 12.3% in the new RCP Avg for New Hampshire.

South Carolina
Republicans
McCain 32 (-4 versus last poll taken 4/26-4/29)
Giuliani 23 (nc)
F. Thompson 13 (+3)
Romney 10 (+4)
Gingrich 6 (nc)
Undecided 11 (-1)

McCain maintains a 4.0% lead in the RCP Avg for South Carolina.

Democrats
Clinton 34 (-2 versus last poll taken 4/26-4/29)
Edwards 30 (+12)
Obama 18 (-6)
Undecided 11 (-2)

Clinton leads by 5.8% in the RCP Avg for South Carolina.

Mitt Romney ran into some religious bigotry in New Hampshire today from a self-described liberal:

"I'm one person who will not vote for a Mormon," Al Michaud of Dover shouted at Romney when the former Massachusetts governor approached him inside Harvey's Bakery. Romney was kicking off the second of two day's worth of campaign visits in the lead primary state.

Romney kept smiling as he asked, "Can I shake your hand anyway?"

Michaud replied, "No."

Michaud later told reporters he was not "a right-winger," alluding to some evangelical Christians who have compared Romney's faith to a cult. Instead, Michaud stated he was "a liberal."

He said he planned to vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., should she win the Democratic presidential nomination.

The issue of Romney's faith hasn't prevented him from rising to the top of the field in Iowa and New Hampshire, though it does appear to be holding him down in South Carolina.

On Sunday, Lee Bandy of The State looked at why, "for some strange reason, Romney has fallen short in his struggle to rise above single digits in South Carolina." Bandy continues:

It's not that the former Massachusetts governor hasn't tried. He has done plenty. He has spent considerable time and money in the state, building a network of political activists and politicians.

But what has it gotten him?

A low rating in S.C. polls.

Why?

There is concern among S.C. social conservatives because Romney is from liberal Massachusetts. Others fear his switcheroo on social issues, adopting conservative stances, is nothing but political window dressing. And then there are the evangelicals - a third of the GOP primary vote - some of whom consider his Mormon faith a cult.

Romney's candidacy seems to be stuck in neutral.

Romney's camp insists their candidate's poor showing in South Carolina is due to the fact that people don't know him yet, which may be true to a certain degree but doesn't explain away the disparity with his rise in the other early primary states.

Remember, no Republican has ever won the nomination without carrying the Palmetto State. Maybe that streak will be broken this year, but to the extent there is some trepidation among South Carolina primary voters over Romney's Mormonism, you can expect it will become an issue. Especially if Romney wins Iowa and/or New Hampshire, the whispering campaigns against McCain in 2000 may look like child's play compared to next January.

Maybe, reports the American Spectator. The Oklahoma Republican had been mulling a run earlier this year but apparently backed out due to the crowded field.

"He's not bound to any timetable or any fundraising imperative," says a longtime adviser to Coburn, who has spoken with him. "What's important for him is that there is no other true, Reagan conservative in the race, and he thinks he can fill that void."

If your name is Fred Thompson, Newt Gingrich or Al Gore, there's both room and time for another candidate to jump in. However, every one of those unannounced candidates has in his own way been running a stealth campaign for several months now. Gore and Thompson have carved out the "savior" niche while Gingrich seems to be waiting for the GOP field to winnow a bit before beginning his conservative "dark horse" run sometime in the fall.

Where does that leave Coburn? In honor of the 30th anniversary of the original Star Wars, "in a galaxy far, far away."

However, this is interesting: "Coburn is believed to have the backing of several low-profile members of the so called 'Swift Boaters,' men who financed the ads that doomed the presidential aspirations of Sen. John Kerry." On the other hand, "low-profile" members probably means not John O'Neill or Jerome Corsi, who wrote the book, "Unfit for Command," and were the public face of the Swifties back in 2004.

UPDATE: Maybe not, says the Politico's Jonathan Martin, who spoke to a Coburn spokesman earlier today.

"He has no intention of running for president," the spokesman said, adding the whole thing came from "rumor planting by powerful donors who want to see a wholesale shake-up in the GOP."

Apparently this is what "powerful" GOP donors do to pass the time.

Rasmussen released his GOP numbers today showing Mitt Romney edging ahead of John McCain:

Republicans
Giuliani 25
Romney 16
McCain 15
Thompson 12
Gingrich 9

Giuliani has a +7.8 point lead in the RCP Average.

Mitt Romney is in an unfamiliar spot: front runner, specifically in Iowa where recent polls show him leading his Republican rivals, writes the Boston Globe's James Pindell and Scott Helman. Romney's early success is due in "large part to his aggressive and well-organized campaign operation" in the state. Most prominent is Romney's organizational advantage, built by years of "courting key party players, doling out campaign cash to county GOP groups and local candidates." These strengths will be needed for the Aug. 11 Ames straw poll that will "set the course of the race here for the rest of the year."

Romney is helped in Iowa by some weakness from his rivals: John McCain skipped the state entirely in 2000 and his recent "championing of immigration reform has cost him conservative support," though he does have significant organization. Rudy Giuliani has nine Iowa staff members and hasn't decided whether to participate in the Ames poll.

Giuliani is the "most socially liberal Republican presidential candidate in more than a generation," but so far he's winning the support of social conservatives, writes The Politico's David Paul Kuhn. An analysis from the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life finds that 44 percent of social conservatives believe Giuliani has the "best chance" of becoming president. About 19 percent of them say McCain "comes closest" to their position on abortion but fewer believe he has the best chance of becoming president. "These calculations about electability are helping propel Giuliani over McCain among social conservatives."

The New York Times' Michael Powell writes that Giuliani, who has softened his campaign style, is now a disciplined candidate who stays on message and often flashes a smile. The New York Sun's Jill Gardiner reports the former mayor is fundraising in his hometown today but avoiding Manhattan to show that his supporters "aren't just fat cats," said former Giuliani speechwriter Fred Siegel.

Greenwich, Conn., has "joined New York, Los Angeles and Silicon Valley as must stops on the presidential fund-raising tour," reports the New York Times' Alison Leigh Cowan. The area is home to a booming hedge-fund industry. Filings for the first quarter reveal more than $1 million given from Greenwich ZIP codes, roughly two-fifths of the entire total those same areas gave for the 2004 presidential race. An additional $1 million is believed to have been raised since then. "In one notable break with the past, Greenwich money is increasingly going to Democrats, a reflection of national trends."

In Iowa today Barack Obama will unveil his health care plan that would guarantee coverage for all Americans by the end of his first term as president, reports the Des Moines Register's Jason Clayworth. Obama has declined to offer details but said prevention and better management of chronic illness can save billions.

Get these and today's other elections stories at RCP's Politics and Elections page.

CU President Hank Brown has written a letter recommending the firing of Ward Churchill.

You may recognize Army Sgt. Bryan Anderson from the January cover of Esquire Magazine:

Yesterday he threw out the first pitch at Wrigley Field:

(Photo: Tom Cruze, Chicago Sun-Times)

For what it's worth, here are the results of a poll of 1,010 adults from May 6-27 conducted by the Scripps Survey Research Center at Ohio University. Respondents were asked a series of questions about what they believe most Americans "will accept" or "will not accept" in a president. I've sorted the results in descending order:

Most Americans Will Accept
A white president who has adopted a black child = 84%
A wealthy president = 76%
A president who's lived in Washington, D.C., for more than 20 years = 74%
A president who smoked pot when young = 69%
A president who currently smokes cigarettes = 66%
A black president = 55%
A woman president = 52%
A president who voted for the Iraq war while in Congress = 52%
A pro-choice president = 49%
A president who has been married three times = 46%
A mormon president = 39%
A president who takes office at the age of 72 = 36%
A president who tried cocaine when young = 34%
A president who has very little government experience = 34%

I don't know that it's wise to make too many assumptions about these results. That said, if you glance down the list Barack Obama would seem be the one facing the most significant hurdles, two of which have nothing to do with the color of his skin.

Hard to believe, but true:

Vandals burned dozens of small American flags that decorated veterans' graves for Memorial Day and replaced many of them with hand-drawn swastikas, authorities said Monday.

Charred flag tatters were found still attached to 33 small flag standards at Woodlawn Cemetery, while 46 of the standards were found empty Sunday, authorities said.

Sheets of paper bearing swastikas drawn with what appeared to be red and black felt-tipped pens had been taped to 14 of the vandalized flag standards, Sheriff Bill Cumming said.

Members of the American Legion on this island in the San Juan Islands replaced the burned flags with new ones Sunday afternoon.

The vandals repeated their actions on Memorial Day after a guard left at dawn, replacing 33 of the small flags with more hand-drawn swastikas, the sheriff's office said.

The campaigns are sending dueling press releases about the Iraq supplemental vote, with McCain first to fire:

"This vote may win favor with MoveOn and liberal primary voters, but it's the equivalent of waving a white flag to al Qaeda."

Then Mitt Romney:

At a time when the men and women of our military fighting terrorism around the globe needed them most, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama cast a vote that singularly defines their lack of leadership and serves as a glaring example of an unrealistic and inexperienced worldview on national security that is regrettably shared by too many of their fellow Capitol Hill Democrats.

Now Barack Obama has returned fire:

"Governor Romney and Senator McCain clearly believe the course we are on in Iraq is working, but I do not. And if there ever was a reflection of that it's the fact that Senator McCain required a flack jacket, ten armored Humvees, two Apache attack helicopters, and 100 soldiers with rifles by his side to stroll through a market in Baghdad just a few weeks ago."

"Governor Romney and Senator McCain are still supporting a war that has cost us thousands of lives, made us less safe in the world, and resulted in a resurgence of al-Qaeda. It is time to end this war so that we can redeploy our forces to focus on the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 and all those who plan to do us harm."

TOM ADDS: McCain reloads, and fires at Obama again:

"While Senator Obama's two years in the U.S. Senate certainly entitle him to vote against funding our troops, my service and experience combined with conversations with military leaders on the ground in Iraq lead me to believe that we must give this new strategy a chance to succeed because the consequences of failure would be catastrophic to our nation's security.

"By the way, Senator Obama, it's a 'flak' jacket, not a 'flack' jacket."

Ouch.

Watch New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine's new PSA on the importance of buckling up:

Research 2000 released a poll for Kansas yesterday with native son Sam Brownback and Mitt Romney basically tied on the Republican side:

Republicans
Brownback 18
Romney 17
Giuliani 13
McCain 13
Thompson 7

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton holds a small lead Obama and Edwards while Bill Richardson runs a distant fourth:

Democrats
Clinton 27
Obama 22
Edwards 21
Richardson 8

Last night Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Chris Dodd voted against the Iraq war supplemental.

Joe Biden, the only other Democratic Presidential candidate in the Senate, voted in favor of the bill issuing a statement saying that while he disagreed with the approach of the bill, "as long as we have troops on the frontlines, we must give them the equipment and protection they need."

Though antiwar groups were disappointed with the Democrats' 'capitulation' overall, they were pleased with their ability to influence those running for the party's nomination. "This bold stand by three of the four presidential candidates in the Senate won't soon be forgotten," said Eli Pariser, the executive director of MoveOn.org's PAC.

Pariser is speaking about the Democratic primary, of course, but if one of these Senators wins the nomination his comment that this vote "won't soon be forgotten" might very well apply to the general election as well - and not in a good way.

Take a look at yesterday's CBS News/New York Times poll. Yes, 63% of those surveyed (including 81% of Dems and 61% of Independents) said the United States should set a "timeline for withdrawal" in 2008.

But the following question asked whether Congress should block all funding of the troops, allow funding for the troops without conditions, or pursue a middle course that allows funding on the condition that the United States "sets benchmarks for progress and the Iraqi government are meeting those goals" - which is exactly what last night's bill did. Phrased that way, 69% of those surveyed were in favor of funding with benchmarks (including 73% of Democrats and 69% of Independents).

Look at it another way. Clinton, Obama, and Dodd just placed themselves on the short end of an 80-14 vote. And of the eleven who joined them in voting against the bill, three were Republicans (Burr, Coburn, and Enzi) who did so out of principle against pork. That leaves the three Democratic presidential hopefuls standing next to Russ Feingold, Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Pat Leahy, Barbara Boxer, Sheldon Whitehouse, Ron Wyden, and socialist Bernie Sanders.

Again, this isn't a problem for the primary - in fact the vote was probably a political necessity for all three of them - but there's a good chance it may come back to haunt them in the general election. You can bet the Republican nominee will do his best to portray this vote as out of the mainstream and rejecting of a sensible course of action on Iraq that supported the troops.

The Senate sent the Iraq war supplemental to President Bush yesterday after voting 80 to 14 for its approval, with three presidential candidates (Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Chris Dodd) voting "nay." Joe Biden and John McCain voted "yea," while Sam Brownback was not present and did not record a vote.

Clinton managed to fit in a speech to George Washington University where she said her health care plan would save $120 billion in costs through preventative treatment, treatment of chronic diseases and computerized record keeping. The savings would be used to fund universal health care. Meanwhile, ABC News' Teddy Davis reports that an Obama campaign aide said the senator will unveil his health care plan on May 29.

Outside of the beltway, it was mostly the non-declared presidential candidates who made news yesterday.

Newt Gingrich drew 1,200 people to the Nixon Library in California last night, reports the Orange County Register's Martin Wisckol. Gingrich spoke about a new book for 19 minutes and then about foreign policy, immigration, Congress and politics generally for the remaining 30. The crowd was so large that 300 people watched Gingrich in another room on television. Gingrich answered questions prior to his speech.

In Connecticut, Fred Thompson spoke at a GOP fund raising dinner where he delivered a "well-received call" for his party to "stand firm in Iraq and demand secure borders at home," the Hartford Courant's Mark Pazniokas reports.

The New York Post's Carl Campanile reports Gore said during an interview with Charlie Rose in front of a packed auditorium: "Maybe at some point in the future I will have some interest in doing that [running for President] again. But I don't feel that right now."

Meanwhile, Bill Richardson flew through Washington state on a quick trip yesterday, where he strafed Congress' bills on Iraq and immigration, reports the Seattle Post-Intelligencer's Neil Modie. "It is wrong for the Congress to abandon a withdrawal timetable," Richardson said, adding that Congress (read: his Senate rivals) should de-authorize the war. On the immigration compromise, Richardson said it splits up families, provides no health care and finances a border fence that he opposes. Richardson said he's for a "sensible legalization program" and tighter border security.

Lastly, DNC chair Howard Dean and Florida Democrats remained at odds about what penalties, if any, Florida should face for breaking the primary schedule and holding its contest on Jan. 29., reports the St. Petersburg Times' Adam Smith.

Get these and today's other elections stories at RCP's Politics and Elections page.

Sig Christenson of the San Antonio Express-News records the first interview with Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez since he retired last year. Sanchez was commander of all coalition military forces in Iraq from June 2003 to July 2004.

On the outlook in Iraq:

"I think if we do the right things politically and economically with the right Iraqi leadership we could still salvage at least a stalemate, if you will — not a stalemate but at least stave off defeat. It's also kind of important for us to answer the question, 'What is victory?', and at this point I'm not sure America really knows what victory is."

On who is to blame for mistakes in Iraq:

"I'm not going to answer that question. That's something I am still struggling with and it's not about blame because there's nobody out there that is intentionally trying to screw things up for our country. They were all working to do the best damn job they can to get things right."

We brought this on ourselves to some extent because of the abysmal performance in the early stages and the transition of sovereignty. We don't have anyone to blame but ourselves to any extent."

On U.S. leadership:

"I am absolutely convinced that America has a crisis in leadership at this time and we've got to do whatever we can to help the next generation of leaders do better than we have done over the past five years, better than what this cohort of political and military leaders have done."

As with any individual, Sanchez comes at the subject of Iraq with his own biases and motivations. Christenson does a good job of presenting those to readers as he wraps up the story:

Sanchez and Coalition Provisional Authority administrator L. Paul Bremer were the two most powerful officials in Iraq during most of the first year of the occupation.

Andrew Krepinevich Jr., a former aide to three defense secretaries, said many observers believe that neither man was up to the job. But retired Army Gen. Barry R. McCaffrey, called Sanchez "a man of tremendous integrity," and said U.S. leaders left him in the lurch by withdrawing the forces he needed as the Sunni insurgency exploded.

While admitting mistakes, Sanchez said he was faced with an extraordinarily complex task over the 14 months of his command, which he termed the most crucial of the war.

Sanchez, who is considering writing a book, also would not say if Bush was engaged on major Iraq decisions during his time as the U.S. troop commander there, saying: "Good questions. More to follow."

He said there were misconceptions about his tenure and that the truth has been stifled by "many that have a vested