Today's big news is hardly news at all: Fred Thompson is running for president, which means two groups of people are very excited today: Conservatives and that unfortunate sub-strata of society known as political junkies.

First, the particulars: He'll be forming the pre-pre-campaign committee known by its proper term, the "testing the waters" committee -- which precedes the "exploratory" committee, which comes before the actual campaign itself -- near June 4 or so, reports the Politico's Mike Allen.

As for the official announcement, NRO's Jim Geraghty is saying that Allen's reporting of July 4 is wrong.

According to Geraghty's source, "There will be no July 4 announcement ... There was some discussion of a June 4 beginning of fundraising; that's the date checks will be collected. I suspect that's where there was some confusion."

If true, this is the wiser move for Thompson. A July 4 announcement would probably have rung a bit too haughty -- even for the supposed Reagan Reborn candidate. Moreover, the way Thompson's been running his stealth campaign so far -- slow and steady -- made Allen's July 4 date seem out of character. It also would have been extremely ... what's the word ... cheesy.

Allen also reports that Thompson could skip the Ames, Iowa, straw poll on Aug. 11, which, if Rudy Giuliani also takes a pass, could make the heretofore all-important straw poll somewhat meaningless.

But now that the "Fred has landed," as one Thompson adviser put it to Allen, let's consider the polls:

Nationally, Thompson hasn't much budged from his low-to-mid-teens placement, essentially putting him in a tie with Mitt Romney. Here is today's RCP Average:

Giuliani 26
McCain 18.2
Romney 10
Thompson 10
Gingrich 7.4

On the other hand, the political futures markets tell a slightly different story. Here are Intrade's numbers:

Giuliani 26.7
Romney 23
Thompson 23
McCain 17.5
Gingrich 2.5

These numbers shouldn't be confused with polling numbers. However, as a gauge of the candidates' strengths, Intrade's numbers are a useful indicator of not only support, but also enthusiasm and expectations.

In the RCP Average for Iowa:

Romney 20.2
McCain 19
Giuliani 18.6
Thompson 8.5
Gingrich 6.3

In the RCP Average for New Hampshire:

Romney 30
McCain 23.7
Giuliani 21
Thompson 6.7

In the RCP Average for South Carolina:

McCain 24
Giuliani 20
Thompson 13.3
Gingrich 11.7
Romney 9

Finally, in the RCP Average for Florida:

Giuliani 29.8
McCain 16.3
Thompson 13.5
Romney 12
Gingrich 7.7

So clearly Thompson has his work cut out for him, although any candidate who comes this late to the game would surely take his numbers in a second.