How Will Clinton vs. Obama Play Out?
Posted by JUSTIN MILLER | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email Author
How much will the fallout from yesterday's fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama alter the Democratic primary campaign?
First, Clinton's debate answer followed by her swift second-wave attack suggest that the campaign is looking to exploit this new space inside the foreign policy debate that's previously been almost singularly about Iraq and her 2002 war authorization vote.
Second, the fight may hurt the argument made by Obama supporters that what he lacks in experience he makes up for in judgment -- namely his opposition to the war in 2002. But now the Clinton campaign will question Obama's judgment by asking him to explain why he would jump at the chance to meet with men like Ahmadinejad and Castro (poignant for Cuban-American voters in Florida), and why he wouldn't immediately hit back against terrorists after an attack on the U.S. soil, as he was asked in an April debate.
Of course there will be no avoiding Iraq come September when Gen. Petraeus and Amb. Crocker report to Congress. The upcoming battle between Congress and President Bush will once more sweep up Clinton and Obama, who will have to decide how their positions affect their votes.
At that point, Obama will likely try to bring the foreign-policy battle between he and Clinton back to where it's been until now: squarely on Iraq and Clinton's vote for the war. Meanwhile, Clinton will try to shift the Iraq debate to the future, then contrast her experience and judgment to handle the war's aftermath against Obama's ability. In short, Obama believes Democrats still care about why the war was fought to begin with, while Clinton is betting they only care about how it will now end.

