Reports yesterday that White House officials gave political briefings to some ambassadors and political appointees -- and the briefings themselves -- offer an insight into which races Karl Rove and Sara Taylor think, or thought, offer Republicans the best shots at picking up House seats in 2008.
WaPo posts [PDF] the list, along with correspondence between Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joe Biden and State Department officials. Find the list of targeted races on page 32 of the pdf.
As NRCC Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) said last week, there isn't much mystery, but it has to be a gut-wrenching moment for incumbent members when they see the White House has actually written their name down on a list.
The list can be broken into a few rough categories:
1) Michael Flanagan Freshmen: The beneficiaries of the '06 wave, in any other year, many would not have been successful, much like the one-term Republican who beat Chicago Congressman Dan Rostenkowski in 1994, only to get thumped two years later by Rod Blagojevich. Not that these members can't win re-election, but Reps. Steve Kagen (D-WI 08), Tim Mahoney (D-FL 16), John Hall (D-NY 19), Jerry McNerney (D-CA 11), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY 20), Chris Carney (D-PA 10), Jason Altmire (D-PA 04), Nancy Boyda (D-KS 02), Zack Space (D-OH 18) and Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH 01) will never have easy races.
2) Because They're Freshmen: The most difficult race any incumbent ever runs is the first race for re-election. In 2006, Democrats threw money at WA 05, where Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (R) was running her first re-election bid, even though she went on to win with 56%, because she was a freshman. Republicans are likely to use the same throw-it-against-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks technique with Reps. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN 08), Heath Shuler (D-NC 11), Joe Donnelly (D-IN 02), Harry Mitchell (D-AZ 05), Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ 08), Michael Arcuri (D-NY 24), Charlie Wilson (D-OH 06) and Tim Walz (D-MN 01).
3) Well, We Beat 'Em Once...: Reps. Nick Lampson (D-TX 22), Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX 23) and Baron Hill (D-IN 09) will face strong challenges because they sit in vulnerable districts and they've all been swept out of office, for one reason or another, before. The Republican who beat Hill in 2004, Mike Sodrel, is currently contemplating another run for the seat, which would make it four consecutive times the two have run against each other. Hill leads the presumably best-of-seven series 2-1.
4) The Sleepless: Veteran Reps. Jim Marshall (D-GA 08), Melissa Bean (D-IL 08), John Barrow (D-GA 12) and Darleen Hooley (D-OR 05) represent the definitions of swing districts. Barrow and Marshall came closest to ruining Democrats' perfect game in 2006, though none of these members will ever be able to go on vacation in September of an election year. If Republicans have a chance to knock off long-term incumbents this year, here's their dartboard.
5) The Long-Term Projects: Some members defy the odds and become entrenched in districts that otherwise does not cast votes for their party. The GOP won't likely be able to unseat Reps. Jim Matheson (D-UT 02), Earl Pomeroy (D-ND AL), Stephanie Herseth (D-SD AL), Tim Holden (D-PA 17), Charlie Melancon (D-LA 03), Alan Mollohan (D-WV 01), Colin Peterson (D-MN 07), John Salazar (D-CO 03), Dennis Moore (D-KS 03), Bart Stupak (D-MI 01) or Nick Rahall (D-WV 03), but they may be able to pick off the districts when those incumbents retire. The GOP would do better to focus on local races and build a bench in some of these seats.
6) The Missing: Maybe it's just an oversight, but we wonder why freshman Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH 02) didn't make the list. And now that their districts are represented by Democrats, are Republicans going to cede the Philadelphia suburbs and give a free pass to freshman Reps. Joe Sestak (D-PA 07) and Patrick Murphy (D-PA 08)?
The GOP had to turn over this list because it was used in a presentation to government employees. Democrats' target list will certainly leak out at some point, and their list will reveal how they plan to expand the playing field while defending themselves from the GOP assault.

