'08 Notes: Avoid Ink

As South Carolina moves its primary up to January 19, as expected today, avoid writing any dates on your calendar in ink. The move, designed to jump ahead of Florida and maintain the Palmetto State's first-in-the-south status, is the first of what are likely to be several dominoes to fall (for full coverage, check out Justin's Daily 2008).

What are the implications of South Carolina GOP chairman Katon Dawson's announcement today, to be made in, of all places, Concord, New Hampshire? It means a potential primary in 2007; it means Iowa and New Hampshire become more (or less) important; and it means that Secretaries of State and Governors in both "first" states have some work to do.

But can Chet Culver (D-IA) and John Lynch (D-NH) get along? The two states work well together, mutually ensuring the other's importance. Maybe the press corps, though, is a harbinger of nasty feelings to come. New Hampshire political writer John DiStaso, dean of his state's press corps, includes this little zinger about the possibility of Iowa holding their caucuses before the clock strikes '08: "That would seriously hurt Iowa's impact on the nominating process. It's 'bounce' would pretty much go flat."

Dawson will get all the attention today, but to reverse a phrase, pay attention to the man behind the curtain. That man is New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, the guardian of the Granite State's first primary. First elected to the post by the state legislature in 1976, Gardner is something of a legend up north. Early in his career, when an official from the DNC came to Concord to urge Gardner to hold the New Hampshire Primary on the same day as Vermont's, Gardner pointedly refused. And as many in Washington today know, it's tough to refuse the woman sent to New Hampshire -- then-DNC Compliance Committee chairwoman Nancy Pelosi.

At today's 11am press conference, according to a spokeswoman for the New Hampshire Secretary of State's office, Gardner is expected to make remarks, but he is not expected to make an announcement, because, says the spokeswoman, he hasn't settled on a date for the state's primary.

Meanwhile, in Iowa, Culver promised to keep Iowa's caucuses first on the calendar, even if New Hampshire and South Carolina move up. "Iowa will go first, that is the bottom line," Culver told the Quad City Times.

Culver said his officials will wait until today's announcement shakes all the way out, though it's unclear when Gardner will make his decision. In a situation like this, use pencil when marking your calendars. And write lightly so dates will come off easily.

In other, non-calendar news, feel free to use ink to note that the '08 campaign is just going to get nastier. After nearly two weeks of Clinton-Obama dust-up and two debates in which contentious barbs were thrown by members of both parties, ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney yesterday decided to cool things down by accusing ex-New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani of hosting illegal immigrants in his city when he was in office.

Giuliani disputed the claim, with a spokeswoman recalling an earlier attempt by Romney to hit Giuliani, for which the governor had to apologize. Nonetheless, Romney spokesman Kevin Madden sent the above article around to reporters today, just in case we'd missed it. And NBC's Chuck Todd takes a look at more back-and-forths between the top tier and some second-tier campaigns. It'll be a long, hot August.

CBN's David Brody gets some good fodder today for anyone who sees Fred Thompson as a threat. Apparently, the President of the Tennessee Christian Coalition was less than thrilled with Thompson as a Senate candidate in 1992. According to Randle Richardson, then the chairman of the Tennessee GOP, the Christian Coalition's attitude towards the race was, "between Thompson and (now-Rep. Jim) Cooper (D), where is the choice?" Not good for Mr. Thompson.

Finally today, as if anyone could ever read too much about the Iowa Straw Poll, check out the latest columns by David Yepsen, of the Des Moines Register (and of fighting with Rudy fame, after last week's GOP debate). He argues the straw poll might mean more than you think, and that the voting will be safe and secure on Saturday (but not on caucus day?). We're reading them because RCP will be reporting live from Iowa all weekend, with stops at the Iowa State Fair, the straw poll and anywhere else we can find without getting lost. Keep watching this space.



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