A condensed primary calendar inherently hurts Iowa and New Hampshire. The two states claim they give second-tier candidates a chance, and it is likely that less well-funded candidates will do better in the early states than they would in larger states that take more money to compete. But a boost coming out of Iowa or New Hampshire will mean little if those candidates can't capitalize on it.

With the brevity of the calendar as it is, a surprise Iowa or New Hampshire winner will not be able to compete on the same level as other candidates in contests that follow so quickly.

Consider a candidate like former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. The surprise second-place finisher at the Iowa straw poll could do very well in the Hawkeye State. In fact, he could do well in New Hampshire, which is likely to follow a week later. But having fared well in two important states, Huckabee would then have to go to Michigan, where his problems begin.

Even with two weeks of free media, Huckabee couldn't possibly compete financially with Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani or, likely, Fred Thompson, all of whom will be running ads in the state for several weeks before Iowa casts a ballot.

If Huckabee doesn't spend all his money by Michigan, his path doesn't get any easier: Two weeks later, he will compete with the first tier again in Florida. Romney and Giuliani have already begun campaigning in the Sunshine State. A week after that, and twenty states hold primaries. Giuliani and Romney will be able to spread their wealth around, draw media to their events and maintain their current leads in polls in many states.

Huckabee's strong performance in an early state, in short, would still leave him unable to compete on what is becoming an increasingly national level.

Even if a top-tier candidate like Romney or any of the top three Democratic candidates wins Iowa and New Hampshire going away, the two states' influence will be diminished. With well-funded candidates like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, as well as Romney and Giuliani, the battle for the nomination will be fought on February 5th, when a large majority of delegates will be selected and the nomination could be finished.

But the outcome some, including party officials who want to stop the seemingly-inexorable march toward earlier primaries, would prefer to see is if February 5th fails to provide a clear nominee, and the process is drawn out, rewarding states like Wisconsin, which holds its primary February 19th, or others who wait to March or later. It is they who, in this condensed primary calendar, may end up with the most influence over the process and the last laugh.

While every political watcher is obsessed with polls, many will caution, correctly, that national presidential polls mean nothing this early. With an increasingly condensed calendar, it is ironic that the national polls are becoming more important barometers while small retail politics becomes less important.

Check back tomorrow morning for a look at why Iowa and New Hampshire will not suffer from a condensed calendar.