Iowa Dispatch: Leaving Ames Happy

DES MOINES - For those anticipating high drama on Saturday, the Iowa Republican Straw Poll in Ames did not disappoint. A big win by Mitt Romney and a surprise second-place finish by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee gave both campaigns something to celebrate, while a disappointing finish chased former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson from the race.

While Romney, the anticipated winner, met expectations with a 13-point margin of victory, the event, which likely raised close to a million dollars for the Iowa Republican Party, gave many of the lesser-known candidates a chance to showcase their platforms. And, with a few surprise finishes, the straw poll more clearly defined for whom the Republican nomination is still a possibility.

With former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senator John McCain and former Senator Fred Thompson sitting out, the burden was on Romney to win big. Judging from headlines around the country, he met those expectations. "Romney's Drive Pays Off," led the Des Moines Register's Tom Beaumont, while the Boston Globe reported that "Romney Trounces GOP Fields in Iowa Straw Poll." The event, on which Romney spent millions of dollars and significant staff resources, cements his status as the front-runner in Iowa with the best organization in the state.

The straw poll was an exercise not just in organization but in studied opulence. From the moment the first visitors arrived, when Huckabee offered his supporters muffins, orange juice and coffee as his band, Capitol Offense, played, until the last buses left for the day, when a live band still sang from Romney's corner, voters could be forgiven for feeling overwhelmed, and overfed.

Romney and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback offered visitors a rock-climbing wall and moon rooms for the kids; Texas Congressman Ron Paul cooked up more hot dogs than anyone could eat; former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson plied visitors with a mini-golf course; and California Congressman Duncan Hunter's guests got an earful of Elvis, who was later taken back to his hotel room because he was feeling overheated. If a free trip to a resort in Southern California was for you, Illinois businessman John Cox's raffle had you covered; if you've never heard the dulcet tones of Christian death metal, Brownback's tent was the place to be.

By the time the polls had closed, just a handful of the estimated 30,000 attendees remained. And when the appointed time for the announcements of vote totals rolled around, full-fledged sign wars had broken out between supporters of Huckabee, Brownback and Paul, while a lone Romney supporter wandered hazardously through the scrum. Results were delayed nearly an hour, caused by a voting machine malfunction requiring the re-counting of 1,500 ballots.

As results were read, many cheered their candidates, and though by the end it was Romney who took home the first-place prize, Huckabee's campaign took full advantage of the surprise second-place finish, declaring victory in a Sunday press release. While Romney and Brownback, who finished third with 15.3%, huddled with reporters near their tents, Huckabee appeared among reporters on the floor just minutes after results were announced. Asked if he should be a front-runner, Huckabee sounded relieved. "I think I always was," he said. "But I think maybe even you guys will realize it now."

The night also produced several obvious losers, including Thompson. A campaign spokesman admitted that it would be difficult for the campaign to continue based on the results. By Sunday night, Thompson had dropped out of the race.

For the bottom rung, including Hunter and Cox, such an event shows a limited organization to go with a poorly-funded campaign. Yet at the moment it is unclear whether either will follow Thompson out of the race.

While Romney's campaign crowed about their victory, Sunday morning showed at least a few problems the campaign still faces. Sitting down with Fox News' Chris Wallace near the state capitol in Des Moines, Romney was subjected to a grilling about several changes of position and past actions in what turned out to be anything but a victory lap.

Indeed, when looked at from a different angle, Romney's victory in Ames gives an indication why the road to a win in the caucuses may be anything but smooth. While his 31.5% was enough for for a double-digit win, it was less than the total given to Huckabee and Brownback, who combined for 33.4%. Add the 13.7% who cast ballots for Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo - who demonstrated with his speech in Ames on Saturday he's seeking to win support by expanding his campaign beyond the issue of illegal immigration - and you have nearly half of the socially conservative straw-poll voting electorate supporting someone other than Mitt Romney.

On one hand, those numbers should give the Romney campaign some pause. On the other hand, Romney benefits to the extent the socially conservative vote on his right flank continues to be split among those multiple candidates heading into the caucuses - and based on their showings Saturday, Huckabee, Brownback and Tancredo all appear committed to playing in January. Finally, whatever balance exists in the race is almost certainly going to be upset if - or more likely when - Fred Thompson enters the fray after Labor Day.

Thompson is scheduled to make his first campaign-style trip to Iowa this week. If the former senator from Tennessee, who some conservatives see as a last hope for one of their own jumping in to the race, makes a strong push for Iowa, he could shrink Romney's margin from the right while negatively impacting Brownback, Huckabee and Tancredo, as their supporters may seek out a candidate they feel has a better chance of advancing.

Romney's victory was anything but Pyrrhic. However, should what has already proven to be a fluid race change further, his early lead in Iowa will again come under assault.



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