The Romney campaign issues its own email lowering expectations for tomorrow:

- Scott Reed, Bob Dole's 1996 campaign manger, said this morning: "If Romney wins he's the undisputed champ. After this weekend, when Romney wins -- even if it's by 10 votes -- he's another step to being the candidate of the social conservatives."

- The 1999 Ames Straw Poll was an anomaly and it is unrealistic to compare absolute turnout figures from 1999 to this year.

- In August 1999, George Bush had a dominant lead in national polls. A July Pew Research poll showed his support at 60%, with his closest challenger, Elizabeth Dole, at 13%. Currently, the average of national public polls in August shows Gov. Romney at approximately 10%. This lack of a prevailing national front runner, will suppress attendance at this year’s Straw Poll.

- In addition to his national frontrunner status, Bush was the clear favorite in Iowa. Three days before the Straw Poll, PSI fielded a statewide poll that showed Bush at 37% with Steve Forbes in second place with 15%. While Gov. Romney leads in Iowa, his support does not reach the level of Bush’s in 1999. The average of all statewide polls in July showed support for Gov. Romney at 24.8%.

- Finally, this year's Straw Poll is absent of two major candidates and non-candidate Fred Thompson. While their names will still appear on the ballot, their absence from the event will undoubtedly lower attendance.