A few thoughts after last night's Republican debate, announcements by Fred Thompson and skirmishes between various Democratic candidates:

-- Obama's Got It Right: Mitt Romney made a few slip-ups last night, and he didn't get any help from a nearly hostile moderator and a group of fellow candidates who know where to train their fire. On the Democratic side, seemingly exasperated by the number of forums, debates and cattle calls to attend, Barack Obama finally decided he's got to do some of his own campaigning instead of campaigning on someone else's schedule.

The problem, as Romney is finding out, is that when you're a front-runner, everyone trains their fire on you (is this picture telling?). When an incumbent is sure of their lead, they want to arrange as few debates as possible, in order to avoid giving the challenger the stage. If your candidate is a front-runner, the closest we have to incumbents in this race, why not bow out of a few of the debates and not let the smaller fish share your stage? If Giuliani, Thompson and Romney are suddenly absent, a lot of viewers will tune out.

-- Occam's Razor: Every time we read about someone trying "non-traditional" or "out-of-the-box" campaigning, it makes us worry for them. Generally, it means a candidate doesn't have enough money to go the traditional route of building an organization and running television ads (so is Fred Thompson's campaign manager, Bill Lacy, telling us something?). Or it can be a strategic decision, as Giuliani has apparently decided to spend his capital on larger states he thinks he can win, rather than on Iowa and New Hampshire.

The problem, as Thompson and Giuliani hope they don't find out, is that "traditional" campaigning -- winning Iowa or New Hampshire after months of building an organization and spending lots of money there -- is tradition for a reason: It works. The past five Republican nominees and six of the past eight Democratic nominees have all won either Iowa or New Hampshire, or both (Rhodes Cook has the chart). Only George McGovern and Bill Clinton didn't win either, though Clinton had native Iowan Tom Harkin and New Hampshire neighbor Paul Tsongas in the race. When a candidate strays from the traditional route, they're seemingly begging for trouble.

Then again, tradition can evolve. Dennis Kucinich is the only candidate we know of who offers and advertises a 1-800 number.

-- John McCain Loves Bill Gardner: Whether it's McCain, who had by far the best night of any candidate last night, or Thompson, John Edwards or Bill Richardson, we got a whole lot of ball left to play. In debates in Iowa, McCain seems good, just not great. Any time he's in New Hampshire, as others have pointed out, he's not good, he's great. With Fred Thompson in, and with what might be considered a legitimate four-way race on the Democratic side, don't start counting people out.

McCain, like Edwards, Richardson, Joe Biden and others, is pinning his hopes on an early primary state. If he gets his wish, there's even a chance that his state of choice -- New Hampshire -- could move into a position on the calendar that would be more influential than Iowa. If that happens, we bet McCain will send a huge flower bouquet to New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who gets another profile treatment in the pages of today's New York Times.

-- Don't Fix What Ain't Broke: ABC News' David Chalian reports that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is not inclined to support a change in his state's winner-take-all approach to awarding electoral votes. A measure hoping to make it to the state ballot this year would award the electoral votes by congressional district, stripping Democrats of 20 or so votes. North Carolina Democrats thought of a similar plan recently, but the DNC quietly discouraged their efforts.

Like the mess of a primary calendar (Colorado Republicans become the latest to hold their event on February 5th), the first state to change their electoral vote process from winner-take-all to a Congressional District award will set off a chain reaction around the country. Of course, that reaction could happen when candidates split the electoral votes of Maine or Nebraska, the only two states who don't follow a winner-take-all approach.

That, though, would only happen in a landslide: The most Democratic district in Nebraska gave just under 40% to both John Kerry and Al Gore, while the most Republican district in Maine gave President Bush 45% in 2000 and 46% in 2004.