Michael Crowley starts his post previewing Barack Obama's big speech on Iraq tomorrow in Clinton, Iowa, with this:

A couple of hours at an insidious Washington-insider cocktail party last night confirmed the Beltway CW: that Barack Obama blew a vital opening earlier this year to become the Democratic primary frontrunner, and that his campaign may well have peaked already.

He may well be right. I've always been of the view that Obama is in a stronger position - and Clinton in a weaker one - than the polls show based on the amount of money he's raised and the enthusiasm he has generated. I'm still inclined to believe that even though, to Crowley's point, Clinton has run a near-flawless campaign that, along with the constraints Obama has placed on himself by running to "change our politics," has left the young phenom with precious few openings over the summer.

But I think the Beltway CW still underestimates the fact that the game is just getting underway as far as many primary voters are concerned, and that makes this race more fluid than the polls indicate.

So now you have my take and Crowley's. Now it's time to give me yours: has Barack Obama peaked or not? Email comments here.