RCP's Fantasy Election 2008
Posted by wpcomimportuser1 | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Over the weekend RealClearPolitics launched RCP's Fantasy Election 2008. RealClearPolitics is proud to be partnered with Intrade, the premier political prediction exchange in the world to power RCP's Fantasy Election '08.
RealClearPolitics has been partnered with Intrade for years to bring you real time market data in all the major political races, which when coupled with the RCP Poll Averages provide the single best snap shot of where a particular race stands at any given time. On RCP's major state and national poll pages we include live Intrade data along with the latest RCP Poll Averages (Dems: National, IA, NH, SC & FL | GOP: National, IA, NH, SC & FL).
Intrade contracts are always yes/no propositions that either expire worthless at zero or at full value (100). The live quotes are effectively the market's odds on a certain event at that given time.
Right now in the Democratic nomination battle Hillary Clinton is trading at 67.6. Another way to think about this number is that the market is pricing Clinton's odds to be the the Democratic nominee at 67.6%. Barrack Obama currently stands at 16.3% and John Edwards at 7.7%.
If you think Obama has better than a 16.3% chance of winning the nomination you can go in and buy Obama contracts, or "go long" Obama around 16/17. If you think Hillary is a lead-pipe lock to win the nomination and has better than a 67.6% chance of winning the nomination, you can buy Hillary contracts - and vice versa if you think the Democratic race is liable to tighten you can sell Hillary's current odds at 67.6%.
There are all kinds of contracts you can trade, from which party will win the general, to who will control the House and Senate, to when a candidate will drop out, to who will be selected as Vice President nominations.
By simply clicking here you can go to the RCP Fantasy Election 08 home page and quickly signup/login and get 10,000 in RCP$ (fake money) and begin playing.

