One month ago all eyes were on Fred Thompson as he launched his campaign for President with a bus tour through Iowa. Since then, Thompson has visited New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee, mostly to undewhelming reviews by the press.

In the meantime, however, Thompson has continued to climb slowly in the polls and he posted a respectable but not jaw dropping number ($9.3 million) for his first official quarter of fund raising.

But now all eyes are on Thompson again heading into tomorrow's GOP debate in Dearborn, Michigan, where Thompson will make his first appearance along with the rest of the Republican field. He's doing his best to downplay expectations by saying he'll be a "bit rusty" in the debate format and hoping he'll be able to "hang in there" with his colleagues, but the truth is that expectations remain exceedingly high.

This debate will not be seen by a lot of people, but it is one that will be watched closely by two important groups. The first is influential members of the Republican establishment and the business community who'll be listening carefully to the candidates' philosophies and responses on economic issues. The second group is the pundit class, who will shape the perception of tomorrow's results (who wins, who loses, how Fred performs).

I don't want to over hype the importance of tomorrow's debate. Fred must clear the same hurdles everyone else must clear every time they attend one of these things: appear competent and don't make any humongous gaffes. But Fred also faces additional scrutiny given it's the first week of October and it's his first time on stage.

Given that Thompson's campaign has been panned by many mainstream pundits over the last few weeks, he'd like to avoid another round of headlines saying "Thompson fails to impress" or "Thompson doesn't stand out from the pack." Negative media spin isn't going to kill Thompson's campaign, but at this point in the game it's not inconsequential.

Just as the positive media spin Hillary's been receiving has created an overinflated sense being a lock for the Democratic nomination, continued negative press for Thompson will create an extra drag on his campaign. That would make it harder for Fred to win over fence sitters and steal away soft support from his competitors he needs to win the nomination.