Is There a Fred Disconnect?
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DEARBORN - I'm now safely ensconced in my hotel room in Dearborn, Michigan, getting ready for this afternoon's Republican debate. But I wanted to take a minute to address this Jennifer Rubin post yesterday in which she cataloged the media's scathing reviews of the Fred Thompson campaign:
Fred Thompson and his spinners contend that the overwhelmingly critical reception he has garnered in the media is limited to inside the Beltway "liberal media" which do not appreciate his charms and folksy appeal. The New York Times coverage this week of his visit to Iowa was typical: "Iowans saw a subdued, laconic candidate who spoke in a soft monotone, threw few elbows and displayed little drive to distinguish himself from his opponents."
There are two problems with the Thompson explanation: 1) conservative pundits have been equally harsh and 2) local media has been even worse.
Rubin is right that the the press, including prominent conservatives like Bob Novak and George Will, have harshly reviewed Thompson's campaign. And his launch in Iowa was panned by some in the local press, including the influential David Yepsen.
What I think this shows, however, is that there is a serious disconnect between the impression Fred is leaving on the media and the one he is leaving on voters. Chuck Todd picked up on this a couple of weeks ago on Meet the Press:
You know, I worry that we, we here in the Beltway are going to have a disconnect on Thompson because, for all intents and purposes, he's been terrible even on the trail this week. Didn't know that Terri - said he didn't have enough information on the Terri Schiavo stuff to, to really comment on it seriously. But he immediately, according to our NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, coalesced a group of Republicans that make up the core Republican primary voter - older, more conservative, older men - and if he holds that group, you know, he could be the nominee and that's - you know, maybe this will all falter and all of his missteps will catch up with him on the trail. But right now I'd worry that we have a disconnect.
I can only speak to what I saw traveling with Thompson during his launch in Iowa. It's true that his kick-off event in Des Moines was less than well attended and he came off stiff and aloof behind the podium. But at the following stops on the tour when Fred would step off the bus and give his folksy, informal spiel to people, they loved it. (Michael Scherer of Salon saw the same thing)
Voters I interviewed said they agreed with nearly everything Fred said when he laid out his "first principles" about the role of government. Some said they were refreshed he didn't get into specifics or lay out 3-point plans for every issue, pretending he had all the answers. Others said they felt more "comfortable" with Fred than any of the other choices in the GOP field. Not a single person I talked to in three days left an event saying they were disappointed with Thompson or that they would not consider voting for him.
Unlike some of other candidates in the Republican field, Thompson's personality plays exceedingly well in Iowa - and there is no doubt it will wear well in the Hawkeye State over time. So while the new Iowa poll showing Fred Thompson running in a strong second place to Romney may be a surprise to some of the pundits who've panned him, it doesn't surprise me at all. And it is, I think, another piece of evidence that - at least right now - there is indeed a disconnect between the what the media sees and what the voters see when it comes to assessing Fred Thompson's campaign.

