I don't know that Mike Huckabee will win the GOP Iowa Caucus, but right now he looks like a solid choice to finish second, and at 5-1 I like his odds to win Iowa outright.

The chart below shows Huckabee's impressive move up to 3rd in the latest RCP Average in Iowa. Coupled with his overwhelming win in the Values Voters (onsite) straw poll this weekend, the potential emergence of Mike Huckabee into the first tier is a significant development in the GOP race.

If the big news coming out of Iowa is Huckabee, and not Mitt Romney, that would be a devastating blow for the former Massachusetts governor's chances. (And a very strong second may be good enough to make Huckabee the big news.)

The Romney campaign very much wants the GOP contest to be framed as a two-person race between Giuliani and Romney. But if anything the GOP race has been widening not narrowing since Labor Day, with the emergence of Huckabee, the refusal of McCain to go away, and the enigmatic Thompson campaign which continually disappoints the press yet regularly polls a solid second nationally.

If Huckabee can further split the field by finishing second or even winning in Iowa, Giuliani's path to the nomination is strengthened. Back in February I suggested to keep your eyes open for a Giuliani/Huckabee ticket. On the back of the New York mayor's well-received performance at the Values Voters Summit and Huckabee's rise in Iowa, the odds of a Giuliani/Huckabee ticket are on the rise as well.