The Foster's Daily Democrat has learned that the suspect who took hostages at Hillary Clinton's New Hampshire offices is named Leeland Eisenberg of Somersworth, who apparently is well known to police in Rochester.

Meanwhile, FOX News is reporting that another hostage has been released. Also being reported is that Somersworth's ex-wife has said he is a paranoid schizophrenic and he had not been taking his medicine.

The latest on the situation at Hillary Clinton's campaign office in New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, at the forum that Clinton had to cancel on, the other Democratic candidates took shots at their own party.

Putting things in perspective, Marc Ambinder notes that Mike Huckabee has spent $327,000, approximately, in Iowa. Mitt Romney? $7 million.

"Disgusted." Bill Richardson didn't think much of the Republicans' immigration debate on Wednesday.

New York Police Commissioner Ray Kelly added more fuel to the Giuliani-expense fire today, saying he knew of no problems with the delay of payments before Giuliani was mayor.

Half point? Fed Chief Ben Bernanke hint at a rate cut boosted Wall Street today.

RIP. Evel Knievel is dead at 69.

A new poll is out, interesting stuff:

Poll: Mitt Romney Is Candidate Most Voters Want To Get Into Bar Fight With

(h/t Matt Continetti)

Not to make light of the very serious crisis going on at Clinton's New Hampshire offices.

On the ground in Iowa, Jonathan Martin is reporting:

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa -- Mitt Romney said he would extend "the benefit of the doubt" to Rudy Giuliani over charges that the former mayor billed security expenses to obscure city agencies -- but also suggested that he welcomed the story playing out further.

"This is something that the mayor is addressing," Romney said at a press availability after a town hall forum at a community college here. "And I think we ought to give him the opportunity to address that as he feels appropriate. Let him have an ample chance to look at the history and explain what he feels is needed."

Giuliani "hasn't really laid out at this stage his full explanation or all that was shown," Romney continued. "So my view is, let's give the benefit of the doubt until he has a chance to do that."

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics is out with a new poll in New Hampshire (Nov 27-29, 500 Dem LV, 500 GOP LV, MoE +/- 5.0%). On the Democratic side,

Democrats
Clinton 30 (no trend)
Obama 23
Edwards 17
Richardson 12
Undecided 12

Overall, Clinton leads by 11.0% in the RCP Average for New Hampshire.

Republicans
Romney 29 (no trend)
McCain 21
Giuliani 19
Huckabee 7
Paul 4
Thompson 4
Undecided 14

Romney's lead in the RCP Average for New Hampshire is 14.8%.

Howard Dean:

"Unfortunately as some of you know, there is a hostage situation in New Hampshire involving a Clinton campaign staff person," he said. "The details are sketchy at this time, but understandably Senator Clinton is now dealing with this very difficult problem and she is not going to be able to join us today. And we will keep them in our prayers and hope for a resolution to this situation in New Hampshire."

..are Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes. No doubt they've been reveling the fallout from CNN's debate debacle on Wednesday night, and now this morning a popular anchor on the rival to Fox's new business channel is on air calling President Bush a monkey:

Murdoch and Ailes have proven they're brilliant businessmen who know how to run a network, but it certainly doesn't hurt to have competitors who constantly make mistakes and run their credibility through the shredder with such consistency.

Tom has an interesting post today on Iowa, referring to Jay Carney's piece in Time. But it's worth reviewing what the "second-choice" issue in Iowa is really about and what the polls do and don't reveal.

It's true that one poll shows Edwards tops the list as the leading second-choice of potential caucus participants, which could pay off because of the 15% threshold cutoff. But leading a second-choice list of all caucus participants doesn't mean much because it's likely that -- barring a major collapse of a major candidate -- Clinton, Obama, and Edwards will all meet the 15% threshold virtually everywhere. The key question is who will be the second-choice candidate of the Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich supporters on January 3rd. And the likely answer is, who knows? One could certainly make an argument that Richardson, Biden, and Dodd voters have already rejected Hillary and will do so again, if they can't support their first choice. But maybe they'll bind together and go uncommitted. Maybe these voters are more establishment-oriented and Hillary will appeal to them. Or maybe, the most important thing to them will be to go to a corner of the room where they have the most friends.

The point is this issue is virtually unpollable. And, to the extent it is, polling the whole Iowa universe -- rather than the supporters of the likely losers -- doesn't tell you anything.

Besides, someone will likely do an entrance poll that night, just like in 2004. In the internet age, it's that result that will get reported and disseminated to the nation. At this point, it's all about momentum, not delegates. The second-choicers won't even matter.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/

On a conference call this morning, the Clinton campaign called on Barack Obama to take down an ad that aired in New Hampshire last night in which they say Obama falsely claims his plan "covers everyone." Heres' the ad:

Clinton Campaign Manager Patti Solis Doyle has written a letter (pdf)to her counterpart at the Obama campaign, David Plouffe, which reads, in part:

Your advertisement not only contradicts the judgment of health care experts, but public statements by your campaign and your candidate. Senator Obama has pledged to put "honesty first" in this campaign. In that spirit I respectfully request that you stop running this ad which is misleading voters in New Hampshire.

In the Q&A portion of the call, Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson was asked to explain why Hillary has gone negative recently and whether it's because, as her rivals assert, she's sliding in the polls. Wolfson responded that both Obama and Edwards had been attacking Clinton on a near daily basis for months, adding:

"That's not the way we'd hope this campaign would go. It was not our choice to engage in that. That was a strategy that they chose to employ. Senator Obama, deliberately eschewing the politics of hope - deciding that the politics of hope were not working for him, and Senator Edwards, of course, abandoning his pledge in 2003 and 2004 to run a positive campaign.

It was important for us to correct the record and make sure that people knew the facts. You can never be in a situation where you're opponents are attacking you relentlessly and distorting your record and not respond. So that is what we are doing in this instance."

Wolfson was also asked why they were attacking Obama over this ad now, since it appears the ad was created (and may have even aired) some two months ago. Wolfson said this was the ad was brought to their attention by some of their people who saw it air yesterday in New Hampshire, before seguing to the real reason:

"Look, we've had a great debate about healthcare this week. We're talking about an important, substantive issue that voters care about. And on that important, substantive issue there are important, substantive differences. And Senator Obama is not getting the bettter of that debate because he has a plan that leaves 15 million people out. Therefore he chose, I guess, to put this ad up to make up for his weakness, to make up for the fact that he leaves 15 million out, and we want to make sure that voters get the truth. And if Senator Obama perceives weakness in this debate, we're not going to allow him to compensate for that weakness by misleading voters as to whether or not his plan covers everyone, because it doesn't."

And, incidentally, to the point Steven Stark made earlier, there was more than one mention of Paul Krugman's column this morning.

Chuck Norris and Mike Huckabee showed up on Greta last night:

More videos in the Vlog.

As a follow up to my last post on polling in Iowa, Jay Carney has a good post at Swampland looking at the important "second choice" preferences in Iowa.

Have we reached a tipping point in Iowa? With the addition of ARG's new poll of the Democratic race in the Hawkeye State, Obama has taken the lead in the RCP Average in Iowa for the first time - by a scant 0.4%.

On the GOP side in Iowa, Romney and Huckabee remain locked in a tight, two-way battle.

Also, ARG shows Mike Huckabee nearly doubling his support in New Hampshire over the last 2 weeks to 13%, which moves him into fourth place ahead of Ron Paul in the updated RCP Average for New Hampshire.

Clinton remains well ahead on the Democratic side in New Hampshire, +12.5% in the RCP Average.

Lastly, ARG shows Huckabee surging in South Carolina, more than tripling his support in two weeks while Romney slipped and Giuliani remained static. Huckabee is now in a close fourth place in South Carolina in the RCP Average, only 6 points off the lead.

Clinton remains well ahead on the Democratic side in South Carolina.

The week is winding down, so get your fill of blog news and debates from RealClearBlogs to carry you into the weekend:

Murtha Surge: Does John Murtha support the surge now?

Osama Beg Laden: Is the Al Qaeda terror leader becoming desperate?

Robert Novak: "Why Lott cashed it in"

On this day in 1967 Sen. Eugene McCarthy announced his intention to run for president -- how times have changed. Also, two notable birthdays: Mark Twain in 1835 and Winston Churchill in 1874. Now to today's top stories, starting with the fallout from Wednesday's debate:

"CNN Hit for Planted Questions" (Christina Bellantoni, Washington Times) Doing what it does best, yesterday the blogosphere sprung to action to do the fact-checking of Wednesday's YouTube questioners that CNN didn't do. (For more on the debate and the whole "YouTube Experiment" from your humble correspondent, go here.)

"Rudy: 'Debate Dirty Trick'" (CBS News) Rudy Giuliani gave an interview to Katie Couric to rebut the charges that he improperly used security funds.

"Ron Paul on Track to be Biggest Fundraiser" (Jeanne Cummings, The Politico) For Ron Paul and his supporters, it's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...

"The Evolution of John Edwards" (Thomas Beaumont, Des Moines Register) Reporter Beaumont's lead is perfect: "John Edwards tells voters that there are still two Americas. What Iowa caucusgoers must decide is if there are two John Edwardses."

"Citing Statistics, Giuliani Misses Time and Again" (Michael Cooper, New York Times) The Grey Lady comes out swinging today against its former mayor.

"Huckabee Ascendant, Turns His Focus to Iowa" (Melanie Asmar, Concord Monitor) Huckabee's strategy from here on out is simple enough: Win Iowa, surge in New Hampshire, onwards to victory. A nice analysis from reporter Asmar.

"Immigration Group: Huckabee a 'Disaster'" (Stephen Dinan, Washington Times) What's that law of physics? For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction? Well, however it goes, Huckabee is learning it well.

"Clinton, Democrats Find Religion, Court Evangelical Voters" (Carla Marinucci, San Francisco Chronicle) Hillary visited one of the country's largest megachurches in California yesterday for a summit on AIDS.

"GOP Gay Group Slams Romney in New Ad" (Associated Press) Now they're called "Mitt-flops," according to a gay rights group that is attacking Romney hard on his tax record in a new ad campaign.

Get these and today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.

Barack Obama undoubtedly got a jolt on the way to his meeting with New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg this morning when he opened his New York Times to discover columnist and liberal icon Paul Krugman slamming his health care plan and, worse, accusing him of "echoing right-wing talking points." In Democratic circles, it doesn't get much worse than this and one can expect to see Krugman's charges make an appearance in an Edwards or Clinton ad or two as things move along.

One column does not a campaign make. But it's indicative of one key development. Obama's mini-surge has come awfully early, giving his opponents ample time to answer back. John Kerry and John Edwards surged later in Iowa last time - and that was ages ago technology-wise, in a year when the race was not nearly as intensely covered as now and few had Blackberries.

It's not that Obama won't win Iowa. It's that to do so, he's going to need a second and a third act. In the early days of television, Bob Hope complained "in the old days you could do one sketch for five years. But if you use that sketch on TV, in one night it's used up." The same principle applies to this year's process, which is the first real campaign of the internet age.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/

A tribute to Henry Hyde in his hometown paper, The Daily Herald.

More on Hyde in the New York Times, and the Washington Post.

"Listen," he shrieked, "I'm a f****** steamroller, and I'll roll over you and anybody else."

Any guesses who said this? A pro-wrestler in a fit of roid rage or an ego maniacal Hollywood star? Try New York Democratic Governor Eliot Spitzer, just two weeks into his first term ripping the Republican minority leader of the State Assembly, according to an account in David Margolick's feature in the upcoming issue of Vanity Fair.

The Carribean was rocked by a 7.3 magnitude earthquake.

Speaking of being rocked, CNN has taken an absolute beating today for letting a committed supporter of Hillary Clinton go unidentified in asking a question about gays in the military. David Bohrman, senior vice president for CNN and executive producer of the Florida debate, says "there's no way" Kerr was a plant.

Rudy got broadsided yesterday with Ben Smith's report about questionable billing practices while he was Mayor, and Rudy swatted the story down at last night's debate. But another tentacle has sprouted from the story, and ABC News reports Giuliani will appear on CNBC tonight at 6pm eastern to discuss the matter of billing practices.

Rooting for the home team: how great will it be if opponents of Hugo Chavez are able to shoot down his effort at what some are calling a "Constitutional coup" by defeating his referendum on Sunday? Assuming the vote isn't already fixed in Chavez's favor, that is.

Like mother, like daughter: Former NJ Gov and EPA Head Christie Todd Whitman's daughter, Kate, is running for Congress in Jersey's 7th district.

Splitting the Teddy? The British teacher facing 40 lashes for letting her class name their mascot teddy bear "Muhammed" has avoided the whip but will spend 15 days in jail and then be deported from the Sudan. I'm sure she'll be sorry to leave.

This morning Q3 economic growth was revised upward to 4.9% from the previous mark of 3.9%. But despite that piece of good news, Bloomberg says the economy is faltering.

Fighting over Huckabee: Carl Cameron has video of a dust up in the spin room last night.

Meanwhile, Chuck Hagel is out making more friends in the White House.

Yada, yada, yada: Osama bin Laden urged the Europeans to stop helping America in the war in Afghanistan.

Can't we all just get along? Rodney King was wounded by gunfire last night.

Now go get ready to watch the Packers vs. the Cowboys.

Richelieu's take on last night:

What a depressing debate. CNN's long slide into mediocrity accelerates. Is this what running for president of the greatest democracy in the world has become? Standing in front of CNN's corporate logo in a hall full of yowling Ron Paul loons and enduring clumsy webcam questions from Unabomber look-a-likes in murky basements?

This is a great bit as well:

My cheers went to a listless Fred Thompson who easily qualified himself to be president in my book by looking all night like he would cheerfully trade his left arm for an early exit off the stage to a waiting Scotch and good Cuban cigar.

The debate was barely in the books when Bill Bennett, as a member of CNN's post-debate panel, said he had heard that Retired Brig. Gen. Keith H. Kerr, who asked the pointed question about gays in the military, had ties to Hillary Clinton's campaign. Now, if Bennett had found out so quickly, what was the deal with CNN's fact-checking operation, which, one assumes, had several weeks to vet Kerr?

In any case, here's Anderson Cooper acknowledging CNN's mistake last night:

And here's CNN's John Roberts interviewing Kerr this morning (and doing his best to try to downplay CNN's ethical lapse):

It matters little how much work, if at all, Kerr has done for Clinton's campaign. What matters is that he is a partisan and a Democratic activist. Had this been mentioned in the debate last night, his question and presence might not have been such an outrageous breach of journalistic standards.

More debate highlights in the Vlog.

Rasmussen is out with a new survey of the Dems in Iowa (Nov 26-27, 1,156 Dem LV, MoE +/- 3.0%) , and he shows an ever so slight tightening in what remains a three-way dog fight:

Clinton 27 (-2 vs. last poll Nov 12)
Obama 25 (+1)
Edwards 24 (-1)
Richardson 10 (nc)

Overall, Clinton's lead in the RCP Average for Iowa is down to just 1.2%, and the trend lines look favorable for Barack Obama:

And, as with the Huckabee-Romney flip on the GOP side, Intrade now has Obama as the favorite to win Iowa, with his contracts trading at 50.0 to Clinton's 45.0.

Free trade, immigration, dollar policy, and just a little Wal-Mart bashing were on the menu yesterday afternoon at Chicago's downtown Standard Club. CNN host and rumored presidential aspirant Lou Dobbs was in town, entertaining a lunch crowd with a quick Q & A and book signing. The highlights were many - and lively.

When asked, for instance, if anyone in the audience had a presidential candidate they were "genuinely enthusiastic" about, only five hands were raised out of the roughly 160 people in attendance. The tally: Obama 3, Giuiliani 1, Biden 1, Dobbs 1. Further questions covered our massive pile of unfunded entitlements (the $53 billion question that most presidential candidates avoid like the plague), media bias, and, interestingly, whether or not our politicians are just giving Americans what they want: more and more consumerism at the price of more and more debt.

Dobbs, as his familiars might guess, disagreed with the latter, centering his talking points on two unrepresentative parties and the need for an independent, populist candidate - one who, he predicted, would surface in "the next 90-120 days...same timing as Ross Perot. We need this desperately."

Could it be you, Lou? "I have absolutely no one in mind when I make that prediction," Dobbs said. "If I did, I would be on their doorstop, begging them to run." As they say in his business, stay tuned.

As we wrote yesterday, there's an easy way to assess who benefited from last night's debate: Who did better in the eyes of Iowa voters -- Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee? The consensus, including the analysis of David Yepsen, is that it was Huckabee by an Arkansas country mile. That means he obviously benefited but so, by implication, did John McCain who needs Romney defeated in Iowa to give himself a fighting chance to win New Hampshire five days later. The loser last night, besides Romney, was Fred Thompson who needs to be the sole southern conservative standing by the time we get to South Carolina mid-month.

And Rudy Giuliani? From his behavior last night, he'd rather take his chances against Huckabee than Romney. So, if he's right in his political analysis, he had a good night too.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/

On this day in 1947 the United Nations voted to partition Palestine and create a Jewish state. Now for today's top election stories, beginning, obviously, with last night's CNN/YouTube debate:

"In Debate, Romney and Giuliani Clash on Immigration Issues" (Michael D. Shear and Dan Balz, Washington Post) It's becoming tradition this primary season for the liveliest part of the debate to occur in the first 10 minutes, and last night was no exception, as Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney went at it over immigration.

A few more debate stories:

"Republican Debate Features Web Queries, Sharp Exchanges" (Amy Schatz and June Kronholz, Wall Street Journal)
"'Gay Question' General Linked to Clinton" (Kenneth Vogel, The Politico)
"Huckabee Takes Fire as GOP Candidates Hold Lively Debate" (Steven Thomma, McClatchy Newspapers)
"Giuliani Dismisses Report About Expenses" (Associated Press)

"Bill Clinton Stumbles on Stump for Wife" (Jill Lawrence, USA Today) A look into the accuracy, and reaction, to Bill Clinton's statement Monday that he opposed the Iraq war "from the beginning."

"Huckabee's Surge Stirs the Pot in Iowa" (Laura Meckler, Wall Street Journal) Surging in Iowa, Mike Huckabee still has a ways to go to prove that his candidacy has staying power.

"Clinton Assails Obama's Health Care Plan" (Seema Mehta, Los Angeles Times) Slipping a bit in the polls in Iowa, Clinton is stepping up the attacks on her closest competitor.

"GOP Abortion Rights Group Raps Romney" (Jim Kuhnhenn, Associated Press) The pro-choice group, the Republican Majority for Choice, will begin airing ads this weekend attacking Romney's current abortion stance as politically motivated.

"Pastor's Invitation to Clinton Draws Fire From Some Christians" (Josh Gerstein, New York Sun) Evangelical Christians are heated that prominent pastor Rick Warren extended an invitation to Clinton to speak at an AIDS and HIV forum at Warren's California church.

"Obama Helped Ex-Boss Get $1 Mil From Charity" (Tim Novak, Chicago Sun-Times) Questions are being raised surrounding a charity Obama worked for which gave money to Obama's former boss at a law firm.

"Long-time Caucus Goers Reflect on What's Changed, Constant" (Kurt Allemeier, Quad-City Times) A nice look at Iowans who've been attending caucuses for decades.

"Detroit 3 Swing Support to Dems" (Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press) Erstwhile GOP backers, the big three auto companies think they know where the electoral winds are blowing and are giving accordingly.

Get these and today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.

It is not about Iowa only any more. Mike Huckabee has a real shot to be the Republican nominee.

A month ago after the Values Voters conference I opined:

I don't know that Mike Huckabee will win the GOP Iowa Caucus, but right now he looks like a solid choice to finish second, and at 5-1 I like his odds to win Iowa outright.

The chart below shows Huckabee's impressive move up to 3rd in the latest RCP Average in Iowa. Coupled with his overwhelming win in the Values Voters (onsite) straw poll this weekend, the potential emergence of Mike Huckabee into the first tier is a significant development in the GOP race.

Well that potentiality has materialized. And at roughly 10-1 to win the Republican nomination (he is trading in 3rd place at 11.7 at Intrade) I like his odds to be the GOP nominee.

The blogosphere is abuzz following last night's Republican primary debate, so stop by RealClearBlogs to check out all of the latest:

Plant Life: Were Democrats Planted at the CNN/YouTube debate?

Rudy's Rendezvous: Did Giuliani misuse NYC funds?

I(owa) Heart(s) Huckabee: Can Mike Huckabee win Iowa?

Ron Fournier has the best take on Clinton's appearances yesterday: there was indeed a "Good Bill, Bad Bill" at each event.

Clinton started each event by saying that he "pretty much isn't involved in politics" any more, which may be technically true but struck me like an alcoholic saying he "pretty much doesn't drink any more." It was obvious that Clinton relished returning to the trail and, as Fournier points out, you could see him fall back into a "me, myself and I" stump speech as if it was '92 or '96 again with the bus sitting outside and the Fleetwood Mac blaring over the loud speakers.

What Fournier doesn't convey in his piece, however, is just how darn effective and persuasive Clinton was yesterday at selling Hillary.

People often refer to Clinton as the best retail politician of the last generation, without understanding exactly what that means. Watching Clinton work a room of people up close is like watching a master painter step up to the canvas. I know it sounds cliche, but he is simply that good when it comes to crafting a narrative that connects to and influences voters.

And yesterday, despite the fact he prattled on, went off script, and was grossly self-indulgent at times, by the time he was done at each event Bill Clinton had made a very persuasive case on behalf of his wife.

At the event in Dewitt I had a long conversation with an older couple seated just in front of the press divider as we waited for Bill to take the stage (the former president still travels on "Clinton time" - which means anywhere from twenty minutes to two hours late).

She was a registered Democrat who said she had narrowed it down to a choice between Clinton and Obama, he presented himself as a registered Independent who typically voted Democrat but was currently undecided. Both had very warm feelings toward Bill and the time he was in office, but both expressed a variety of reservations about voting for Hillary.

As they got up to leave an hour and a half later, I asked them whether Bill had made the sale. They both nodded in the affirmative, and the woman remarked that part of what had won her over was the idea of seeing Bill back in the White House as part of a "two for one" deal.

My story involves an admittedly small sample size. And these two folks may have gotten up this morning and changed their minds back. Or maybe there will be something else that changes their mind before caucus night. The point of the story is that those who think Bill Clinton isn't an asset to Hillary's primary campaign are out of their minds. When he's in front of Democratic leaning audiences, the Good Bill far outweighs the Bad.

Lots of debate today on Bill Clinton's statement in Iowa that he opposed the Iraq war "from the beginning."

Dig in and decide for yourself:

Mark Halperin has the details from the Clinton campaign supporting Bill's statement.

But Matthew Yglesias digs up a Guardian column Bill wrote on March 18, 2003, suggesting the former president wasn't all that opposed.

RealClearBlogs has more blogger reax.

The Edwards campaign kicked off its "America Belongs To Us" effort today, complete with a brand new site, stating, in part, that "Lobbyists have taken control in Washington and America's hard-working families pay the price."

The campaign is looking to get 1 million visitors to sign the "America Belongs To Us" pledge:

Because I believe we need real change in America and an end to the broken system in Washington that works for special interests and not us, I pledge not to vote or caucus for a Democratic presidential candidate that accepts campaign contributions from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs.

An interesting idea, even if the name could be read as some comic book villain's fist-pumping exhortation.

If you're looking for a chuckle, I've got just the ticket. Here's Mike Gravel doing his best John Lennon imitation:

(via GMP1)

New Suffolk University/WHDH-TV poll in New Hampshire (Nov 25-27, 300 Dem LV, 300 GOP LV, MoE +/- 5.65%). On the Democratic side, Clinton leads by twelve:

Democrats
Clinton 34
Obama 22
Edwards 15
Richardson 9
Undecided 12

Clinton leads by 12.9% in the RCP Average for New Hampshire.

Among the sample of this group, 10% said it is "very likely" they will change their mind before January and another 36% said it was "somewhat likely." 48% said it was "unilkely" they would change their mind about who they were supporting.

On the Republican side, Romney is up by 14 on Giuliani:

Republicans
Romney 34
Giuliani 20
McCain 13
Paul 8
Huckabee 7
Thompson 2
Undecided 14

Romney leads by 14.5% in the update RCP Average for New Hampshire.

11% said it is "very likely" they will change their mind before January, 39% said it was "somewhat likely," and 43% said it was "unilkely" they would change their mind about who they were supporting.

Other notables: 81% said Bill Clinton is an asset for Hillary. Regardless of who they support, 46% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents believe Hillary will be the next president, as do 12% of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents. Among this last group, one out of three said Rudy is too liberal to win the nomination.

Lastly, when asked who they would trust most to "drive your children to school," 23% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents chose Hillary, 21% Edwards and 19% Obama. On the other side, 25% of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents said Romney, 17% said McCain, and only 7% said Rudy.

Via Ben Smith, the Empire State Pride Agenda launched a Web site today documenting Rudy's pro-gay record. It's quite extensive with lots of YouTube videos showing Rudy before various gay-rights groups.

Writes the ESPA: "While as a candidate for President, Giuliani has distanced himself from most of his earlier positions on LGBT issues, the documents and video clips that follow portray the Rudy Giuliani that earned him the 'pro-gay' label he still carries with him today in his race for the U.S. Presidency."

The flap yesterday over comments Mitt Romney made to Mansoor Ijaz about appointing Muslims to his cabinet has gotten uglier.

From the Huffington Post:

Mansoor Ijaz, a prominent Islamic businessman, told the Huffington Post that Romney's comments were made in reference to possible cabinet appointments and not, as the former governor has since claimed, in the context of combating Islamic extremism.

"This guy is lying now to the American people," said Ijaz. "He probably never imagined someone would come out and write a piece the way I did. And I think he made a serious mistake in judgment in trying to disown what he said."

Ijaz isn't exactly an unbiased reporter on all this -- nor is the Huff Post -- so consider that when weighing his charges.

UPDATE: Missed this this morning, but NRO's Jim Geraghty spoke with Ijaz via email yesterday. Jim also doesn't think it's quite fair to label Ijaz a "Clintonite," considering that, among other things, he donated to Romney's campaign.

Mitt Romney keeps the heat on Rudy:

More videos in the Vlog.

Well, it's finally happened: we have our first poll showing Mike Huckabee overtaking Mitt Romney for the lead in Iowa. Rasmussen has the goods (Nov 26-27, 839 GOP LV, MoE +/- 3.5%):

Huckabee 28 (+12 vs. last poll Nov 12)
Romney 25 (-4)
Giuliani 12 (-3)
Thompson 11 (-3)
Paul 5 (+1)
McCain 4 (-2)

Overall, Romney still leads by 2.8% in the RCP Average for Iowa, but the trend lines are fairly ominous for him:

Meanwhile, Huckabee has also passed Romney on Intrade as the favorite to win Iowa. Huckabee contracts are now trading at 49.0 while Romney's are at 45.4.

Incidentally, yesterday afternoon in Dewitt, Iowa, former President Clinton was asked, "of all the Republican candidates, who would you most get a kick out of seeing you wife run against?"

Clinton gave short, benign answers about Rudy and Fred, gave a more detailed take on Romney's campaign that generated guffaws from the crowd, did a brief riff on Huckabee and finished with some surprisingly strong praise for John McCain:

On Giuliani: "You know, I had a lot of dealings with Mayor Giuliani when I was president, and I think they'd certainly be an interesting pair."

On Thompson: "I have an interesting relationship with Fred Thompson. When he was Senator from Tennessee I used to send him cigars. That'd be an interesting match up."

On Romney: "I've gotten a kick out of his campaign, 'cause now that he's campaigning to all these social conservatives he's basically asking for forgiveness for most of what he did as governor. He basically says, 'well, if you were governor of Hades you'd act like the devil too. I did a good job of representing my constituents, but now that I have a chance to ascend to heaven I'll say whatever.' So that would be an interesting match up."

On Huckabee: "My former governor, Huckabee, is running real well in the Republican primary because he's a genuine social conservative and an economic populist. And he gives the best talk. He's really funny. You can probably tell we were all raised in an oral culture down there - most of us didn't have televisions 'til we were nine or ten years old so we had to learn how to tell a story."

On McCain: "I respect McCain. I totally disagree with him about the war and several other things. But he's a very honorable man who was mauled in 2000 in the most revolting way in South Carolina. And I respect the fact that when his people abused him worse than I ever saw a campaign staff abuse a candidate - just threw all this money away - he didn't quit, he just kept on running without it. So I like that."

Clinton finished by saying he didn't care and that the Republicans would have to pick their own candidate. "You know I'm interested in all of them." Clinton said. "I've reached the age where I'm not really mad at anybody any more, I just want to get something done."

A few moments later Clinton predicted that "if she [Hillary] wins the nomination, she'll win and win handily" in the general election.

On this day in 1943, President Roosevelt joined Winston Churchill and Joseph Stalin in Tehran to discuss strategies for ending the war, including the D-Day invasion, which, amazingly would be launched just seven months later. On to today's top election stories:

"Senate Race That Fizzled Honed Skills for '08 Stage" (Adam Nagourney, New York Times) Reporter Nagourney takes a look back at the 2000 Senate race between Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton that promised to be one for the ages until the mayor backed out, leaving Clinton with an easy road to victory.

"YouTube Debate Raises Stakes" (Amy Schatz, Wall Street Journal) With the contest getting ugly between the top candidates, tonight's CNN/YouTube debate -- the first GOP debate in a month -- shouldn't disappoint, despite the snowmen.

"Clinton Hits Obama on Health Care" (John McCormick, Chicago Tribune) You have to get about mid-way through the story and all the back-and-forth about health care to read Hillary Clinton defend herself about going negative recently, which she says is because her hand was forced.

"No Buildup in Support for McCain" (Michael Finnegan and Stuart Silverstein, Los Angeles Times) No candidate has tied his campaign as closely to the Iraq war as John McCain, going so far as to try to take "ownership" of the surge. But with prospects for success on the rise, is McCain reaping any political rewards?

"As GOP Hopefuls Duel, Fact-checkers Work Overtime" (Brian Mooney, Boston Globe) A fun look at how heated the GOP field has become recently, with all the contenders firing at each other, and who's right on which charge.

"Bill Clinton Flatly Asserts He Opposed War at Start" (Patrick Healy, New York Times) The headline says it all, although, as reporter Healy notes, it's not exactly true.

"On Iraq, Clinton Tries a New Tack" (Nicholas Wapshott, New York Sun) Meanwhile, as husband Bill is making headlines, Hillary sent a letter to the president asking that he agree not to keep permanent military bases in Iraq once a majority of combat troops are withdrawn.

"Obama's Use of Money Questioned" (Sarah Liebowitz, Concord Monitor) Hillary is asking questions, very politely of course, about one of Obama's PACs.

"Foreign Policy Experts Give Blessing to Obama" (Charles Babington, New Hampshire Union-Leader) Directly challenging Hillary's perceived experience on foreign policy, Obama is surrounding himself with former foreign-policy officials from the Clinton administration.

Get these and today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.

Head over this morning to RealClearBlogs, and read all of the latest buzz from around the blogosphere:

Clinton Crash: Did Bill Clinton oppose the Iraq War?

Muslims & Mitt: Would Mitt Romney forbid Muslims from his cabinet?

Viva La Violent: Is Paris rioting, or are they at war with radicals?