There's been a lot of ink spilled recently about the various early state scenarios that could take place on both the Democratic and Republican side. Jay did an excellent job in his post this morning of laying out how to think about various scenarios and how each one is made up of a number of interlocking steps that carry their own degree of likelihood.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned, however, is the interplay between the two parties, and how what happens in one contest may affect or alter the potential outcomes on the other side. This year, in particular, that could be more of a factor than people realize.

It's fairly well established that one of Rudy Giuliani's most valuable attributes in the eyes of Republicans is that he promises to run the toughest and most competitive race against Hillary in the general election. Of course, that perception hinges on the widely held assumption among Republicans that Hilllary is the presumptive nominee of the Democrats.

So if Hillary wins Iowa, most pundits agree it will essentially guarantee her the nomination. That in turn could help boost Giuliani's chances in New Hampshire as Granite State voters come to grips with this reality just days later, though I suspect much of that is already "priced in" toGiuliani's support there.

However, if Hillary Clinton suffers a defeat in Iowa and it throws the Democratic race wide open, will Rudy lose some of his appeal among Republican voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina? Put another way, how will Republican voters reassess their primary choices if suddenly Hillary is no longer the presumptive Democratic nominee?

For that reason, I would think that what should be most concerning to Rudy's camp right now is not that he finishes 3rd in Iowa 55 days from now, but Hillary does.