Ron Paul may have raised over $4 million yesterday, in a gambit that apparently set some kind of single-day GOP fundraising record. Its real significance is this: Paul is still terribly unlikely to do well at all in the race for the GOP nomination. But to the extent he gets any votes, he probably gets at least some of them at the expense of John McCain -- another candidate with appeal to independents. This is especially true in New Hampshire -- a state with some libertarian leanings -- and a state in which McCain must either finish near the top or end his candidacy.

The long-term significance of yesterday is that Paul has now shown enough grass roots financial support that he can think about a credible third-party candidacy -- something he already tried 20 years ago as a libertarian. As we've written before, virtually any third-party candidacy in 2008 helps the Democrats. The more support Paul attracts, the better Hillary's general election chances look. She had a good day yesterday too.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/