The much anticipated Iowa poll is out (GOP write up here, Dem write up here), and contrary to other recent polls, it contains some much needed good news for Barack Obama. Obama has picked up four points in the new poll vs one month ago while Clinton and Edwards remained flat, and second tier candidates Richardson and Biden ticked down:

Democrats
Obama 32 (+4 vs. last poll Nov 25-28)
Clinton 25 (nc)
Edwards 24 (+1)
Richardson 6 (-3)
Biden 4 (-2)
Undecided 6

Of particular interesting is the break out of the two day rolling averages over the four day sample showing Clinton on a steady decline with Obama and Edwards trending positive:

Overall, Clinton still leads by 1.6% in the RCP Average for Iowa.

On the Republican side, Huckabee maintains his lead over Romney, while McCain looks to be winning the important battle for third place, doubling his support over the last month to 13%. Thompson is in danger of falling into fifth place in this poll, and the bottom appears to have completely fallen out for Rudy in Iowa:

Republicans
Huckabee 32 (+3 vs. last poll Nov 25-28)
Romney 26 (+2)
McCain 13 (+6)
Thompson 9 (nc)
Paul 9 (+2)
Giuliani 5 (-8)
Undecided 4

Again, the break out of the two day rolling averages give an idea of the trend over the four day sample. As you can see, Romney appeared to tick down slightly but overall the trendlines for all the candidates appear surprisingly stable:

Huckabee is now back on top in the RCP Average for Iowa, but by less than a single percentage point.

Also of note: roughly 1/3 of likely Democratic caucusgoers and 1/2 of likely Republican caucusgoers say they "could still be persuaded to support another candidate." Stay tuned.

Killing political reporters' chances at ringing in the New Year, the Des Moines Register will release its all-important Iowa poll tonight.

FOX News' Carl Cameron talks about the "Huckabee Moment" from earlier today:

Now, about that ad, Mark Halperin has a partial transcript here and some bootlegged footage here.

"Make me your second choice..." Barack Obama gives some last-minute advice to Iowa caucus-goers. Needless to say, this wasn't the message Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe was telling reporters on a conference call this morning.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton took some verbal whacks at surging John Edwards: "Instead of, like, generating a lot of heat and rolling your hands and jumping up and down, lets just sit down and figure out how we are going to beat them."

We're only days away from the Iowa Caucuses and that means the push-pollsters are on the hunt.

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour announced today his choice of Rep. Roger Wicker to replace the outgoing Sen. Trent Lott.

Sara Jane Moore, who took a shot a Gerald Ford back in 1975, was released from prison today, having served about 30 years of a life sentence.

In the first few days of 2008, despite the holiday, the data flow will be pretty heavy, including the employment report on Friday, which we expect to be slightly on the weak side with just 65,000 new jobs. Nonetheless, we expect 2.5% real GDP growth in Q4, and between 3% and 3.5% growth in 2008.

One of the reasons we remain optimistic about the US economy, despite serious problems at large financial institutions and rising delinquencies for sub-prime borrowers, is the underlying health of productivity. Whatever happens in the next year or two, the U.S. will remain a leader in the technological revolution -- a revolution no less significant than the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and early 19th centuries, when mechanization shifted the locus of wealth creation from agriculture to manufacturing.

This time, the shift is taking place between manufacturing and information technologies. But it's important to be careful about what that displacement means. Total industrial output will keep increasing, even excluding high tech. In fact, it hit an all-time high for the US in 2007. But it represents an ever smaller share of total output and an ever smaller share of jobs. The same thing happened during the Industrial Revolution, when farm output soared, prices for food fell and the share of workers in that sector kept falling.

Today, according to the Labor Department, prices for information technology hardware and services are down 90% from 20 years ago. In the past 10 years, the price of personal computing power is down more than 90%.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve data show the production of computers and peripheral equipment is up 275% and the production of semiconductors and other related equipment production is up almost 1500%. According to the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, the volume of international telephone calls has increased 20-fold since 1980. In 2006, there were 1.02 billion internet users versus just 2.6 million in 1990.

In a sense, the high-tech revolution and the much earlier Industrial Revolution are two variations of an even longer-term productivity trend that ultimately has its source in the true economic fundamentals of our advanced civilization: property rights, free and enforceable contracts, the rule of law, and a self-restrained population capable of extending these bedrock foundations of capitalism into the future.

When those attributes are in place good things happen despite the ebb and flow of various business cycles. And despite a wave of populism that seems to have its roots in the same transformative upheaval that led to the first wave of populism during the Industrial Revolution, we remain confident that when all is said and done the next generation of Americans, and the ones after that, will live better than their parents.

New Insider Advantage poll of the Dem race in Iowa shows Hillary Clinton and John Edwards closing strong in a tight battle while Obama appears to be slipping:

Clinton 30 (+6 vs. last poll Dec 16-17)
Edwards 29 (+3)
Obama 22 (-5)

Overall, Clinton now leads by 1.8% in the RCP Average for Iowa.

Also good news for Edwards: among those currently planning to support another candidate, 62% identify him as their preferred second choice, only 21% choose Clinton and 17% Obama.

Taking these second choice preferences, Insider Advantage then applied the same reallocation formula they used in '04 which they say correctly a "comfortable win for John Kerry" - Edwards comes away with 41%, Clinton 34%, and Obama 25%.

Should we see a result like that, with Obama finishing in a distant third place 9 points behind Clinton and 16 points behind Edwards, it's hard imagine how Obama's candidacy wouldn't be mortally wounded. But this is simply one poll of many out there right now.

We'll have even more to chew on when the Iowa poll, seen as the Gold Standard in caucus polling, is released later this evening.

As Reid Wilson reports, after telling a roomful of reporters that he was yanking his anti-Romney ad from the airwaves, Mike Huckabee proceeded to show the ad anyway.

The campaign is saying that the ad was shown to prove that it existed -- essentially, to kill questions that this whole thing was set up to make Huckabee look magnanimous. But in addition to showing the ad, Huckabee was also flanked by signs making the same points as the ad. According to Jonathan Martin, the campaign said that Huckabee made the decision too late to remove the signs. Uh-huh.

Why not just cancel the whole thing? It might have come off as a bit unorganized, but at least Huckabee would have been able to play the magnanimous card without the stench of clumsy opportunism, which will certainly be noted in the media reports.

What, no Auld Lang Syne?

Mark Halperin is reporting that Mike Huckabee's planned video/ad response to Mitt Romney's attacks on him has been pulled per the candidate's orders.

But maybe Huck just figured his appearance on CNN's "American Morning" got the point across.

With the Huckabee-Romney feud (with McCain thrown in every now and then) raging, Rudy Giuliani has had a bit of a media blackout, relatively speaking. Indeed, by not competing in Iowa, and having now abandoned New Hampshire, Giuliani will struggle to get good media exposure between now and Florida on Jan. 29. With that in mind, today the campaign released a memo, "Looking Good," arguing that this is still Rudy's race to lose.

Writes strategy director Brent Seaborn:

For the record, only 78 delegates will be picked prior to Florida whereas 1,039 delegates will be picked on January 29 and February 5. Additionally, it is important to note that voting HAS ALREADY STARTED in Florida, Missouri, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey and New York -- tens of thousands of people will have already cast their ballot by the time you are reading this note. And more February 5th states, including California will begin early and absentee voting soon. All of this points to the folly of over-estimating the impact of the results of Iowa and New Hampshire and the wisdom of our strategy.

The full memo after the jump.

Should a global-sized blizzard like the one from the movie The Day After Tomorrow, complete with the instant-death freeze cyclone, hit Iowa on Caucus Day, I think we can all thank Reid Wilson for the jinx.

After last week's run of negative ads (see here and here), Mitt Romney kicks off the week on a more positive note:

More videos, including all the Sunday shows, in the Vlog.

While I'm in the question-asking mood, let's talk about this post from Paul Mirengoff at Powerline yesterday complaining about the potential influence of liberal leaning newspapers like the Concord Monitor and Boston Globe for slamming Mitt Romney and endorsing John McCain. Mirengoff wrote:

It's extraordinary that these left-leaning organs might actually play a role in the selection of the Republican nominee. But that's the natural consequence of (a) New Hampshire's status as the first primary state and (b) the fact that non-Republicans can vote in that primary.

Paul goes on to say that unless Romney gets routed by McCain in New Hampshire, "Republicans should not view the result as a repudiation of the former Massachusetts governor by "those who know him well."

Nobody disputes that the Concord Monitor and Boston Globe are liberal papers. However, it seems to me the more interesting question is why the New Hampshire Union Leader and the Boston Herald, two decidedly conservative papers that would appear to be surefire supporters of the former Massachusetts Governor and indeed "know him well," have also slammed Romney and endorsed McCain.

Maybe there are histories and personal feuds dating back to his time as Governor that explain the animus towards him by these conservative papers, but it also seems clear that while the Republican field seems mostly congenial towards each other, they all appear to share a visceral dislike of Romney. This doesn't seem to be coincidence, and it can't be explained away by jealousy or by Romney's position in the polls.

When you flip a light on today be sure to give thanks to Thomas Edison, who on this day in 1879 first demonstrated the incandescent lightbulb. Now for the day's top election stories:

"Romney Claws Back in Iowa Polls" (Laura Meckler, Wall Street Journal) A series of new polls out show Mitt Romney back in command of Iowa, where a surging Mike Huckabee was threatening. Huckabee's response is to go on the attack questioning Romney's honesty.

"Huckabee, Romney Make Sunday Push for Evangelicals" (Michael Shear and Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post) The Huckabee-Romney feud spilled over into the church pews over the weekend, with Romney aides traversing the state making a final pitch to evangelical pastors. Huckabee, meanwhile, made his case yesterday on "Meet the Press."

"Democrats Hammer State to Secure Votes" (Thomas Beaumont, Des Moines Register) With John Edwards leading his rivals in at least one poll, all three of the top Democratic contenders scoured Iowa yesterday for those last few votes.

"Democrats Try Various Styles, and Pronouns" (Mark Leibovich, New York Times) A slightly different focus on the same Iowa theme, reporter Leibovich takes a look inside all these Iowa rallies -- from Hillary Clinton's "Time to Pick a President" to Barack Obama's "Stand For Change."

"Bloomberg Moves Closer to Running for President" (Sam Roberts, New York Times) Could the siren song of history prove too much for NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg to resist? His aides, report Roberts, are out measuring interest, while the mayor himself is making sure to stay in the headlines.

"Giuliani Steers Clear of Political Fray" (Glen Johnson, Associated Press) While his two rivals Romney and Huckabee batter each other, Rudy Giuliani has been notably quiet, focusing his campaigning in Florida.

"Obama Makes Run to Middle" (Christina Bellantoni, Washington Times) Not quite as angry as his rival John Edwards, Obama is hoping that coming across as just your average Joe will sway those undecideds.

"McCain's Unlikely Ties to K Street" (Jeffrey Birnbaum and John Solomon, Washington Post) For a senator whose known for railing against pork spending and special interests, McCain's hobnobbing with wealthy CEOs and the like this campaign season raises some questions.

"Ron Paul's War Chest Swelled in 4th Quarter" (Mary Jacoby, Wall Street Journal) Whatever Paul's actual chances are in this race, he clearly has a future as a fundraiser if this whole presidential thing doesn't work out.

Get these and today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.

Kate Zernike's profile in the New York Times today raises an uncomfortable but relevant question: There are at least two other people running for President who've suffered personal tragedies along the same lines as - and in the case of Joe Biden arguably worse than - John and Elizabeth Edwards. Yet those candidates rarely if ever make mention of these tragedies during the campaign and they certainly don't cite their ability to endure personal tragedy as some sort of qualification for the office of the Presidency of the United States.

So why do the Edwardses frequently do this and why is it relevant?

Dan Balz of the Washington Post has not been alone in noting how, of all the candidates, John Edwards' efforts on the stump have reached a crescendo in these final days of the Iowa campaign -- an effort that has been matched by rising poll numbers in the RCP Iowa poll average. It is not a coincidence. Candidates do best what they've done before. If Ronald Reagan was a TV communicator par excellence, it was largely because he'd spent much of his adult life in front of the camera -- first making movies, then hosting TV's" General Electric Theatre" and "Death Valley Days." No one could charm an audience of around 75-100 for around 30 minutes like Jimmy Carter, who had perfected the skill teaching Sunday school for years in his native Plains, Georgia.

Trial lawyers may be out of favor in certain segments of America. But if there is one thing they know how to do, it is to give an effective closing at trial. North Carolinians know that few lawyers were as effective as Edwards was in front of a jury and those same skills are on display in the closing days of this Iowa campaign -- just as they were four years ago.

Soon, of course, the campaign will change from retail to wholesale and it remains to be seen whether Edwards' version of prairie politics will play nationally. And, Joe Klein may be right when he wrote yesterday that Edwards may be a tad too "hot" for some voters. But Edwards has done this before and, for this month at least, with the voters as his jury he should probably not be underestimated.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/

Zogby/Reuters/C-Span is out with the second day of their daily tracking poll in Iowa. Here are the results:

Democrats
Clinton 30 (-1)
Edwards 26 (+2)
Obama 26 (-1)
Richardson 5 (nc)
Biden 5 (nc)

Clinton leads by 2.0% in the RCP Average for Iowa over Edwards and Obama who are tied.

Republicans
Huckabee 29 (nc)
Romney 27 (-1)
McCain 13 (+2)
Thompson 8 (nc)
Giuliani 7 (-1)
Paul (-1)

Overall Romney leads by just 0.4% in the RCP Average for Iowa.

Fred makes his final pitch to Iowa voters in this 17-minute YouTube:

Carol Marin of NBC5 and the Chicago Sun-Times was kind enough to have me on City Desk this week to talk about the '08 race. We taped the interview on Friday and it aired yesterday morning here in the Chicago area: Part One | Part Two

Things took a nasty turn yesterday between Mitt Romney and John McCain in the battle for New Hampshire. Here's a quick tick-tock of the day's events:

- Things started yesterday morning when Mitt Romney released an ad attacking John McCain on taxes and immigration.

- McCain responded by going on Fox and Friends and declaring that Romney is in "a tailspin."

- A bit later the McCain campaign announced the launch of this ad highlighting editorials from the New Hampshire Union Leader and the Concord Monitor slamming Romney which the campaign declared was in response "to Mitt Romney's negative attack ad."

The Romney campaign cried foul. On his campaign bus in Iowa, Romney told reporters:

"We worked very hard to make sure it was accurate and honest and looks at contrasting issues. I begin the ad by indicating he's an honorable man. I believe he is, and a good person. I make no attacks on his character. I make no attacks of a personal nature whatsoever.

"I've just seen the text of his ad," Romney added. "It's obviously of a very different nature. It's an attack ad. It attacks me personally. It's nasty. It's mean-spirited. Frankly, it tells you more about Senator McCain than it does about me - that he'd run an ad like that."

Shortly thereafter the Romney campaign blasted out the following statement, along with a link to a commercial McCain ran against George W. Bush in 2000, suggesting that McCain has a history of attacking his rivals:

"Senator McCain has a troubling history of neglecting substantive issues and getting personal in his attacks against those who happen to disagree with him. It's the McCain way.

We just happen to believe that Senator McCain's position on amnesty for illegal immigrants and his votes against President Bush's tax relief are the wrong policies for the Republican Party. We just simply disagree with him."

Last night the McCain campaign fired back with this statement:

"If voters didn't already know Mitt Romney, his crocodile tears might have been convincing. He's spent $20 million of his own money serially misrepresenting his positions and those of every other candidate. We just decided to share New Hampshire newspapers' assessment of him."

Finally, despite Romney's claims about the veracity of his ad with respect to McCain's record on taxes and immigration, Marc Santora of the New York Times wrote that, "On both topics, the commercial presents facts that could be construed either as selective or worse, misleading."

And in the Washington Post, Howard Kurtz came to the same conclusion:

Mitt Romney, who targeted Mike Huckabee in an earlier commercial, is now running the most negative campaign of any presidential candidate in either party.

Romney's description of McCain's failed immigration bill -- which was backed by President Bush -- is so selective as to be misleading. [snip]

This New Hampshire ad, like the anti-Huckabee spot in Iowa, comes as Romney's poll numbers are declining in both states. Romney tries to cushion the blow in both ads by saying a few nice words about his opponents before assailing their records.

It's certain the war will continue for the next ten days, what's unclear is who is more hurt by this kind of back and forth.

The Thompson campaign announced it has raised enough money to get on air in Iowa, though it's not clear for exactly how long they'll be able to keep this ad running:

New Research 2000 poll in Iowa (Dec 26-27; 500 Dem LV, 500 GOP LV) showing a ridiculously close race on the Democratic side, with Edwards and Clinton rising in the last 14 days and Obama slipping:

Democrats
Edwards 29 (+5 vs. last poll Dec 10-13)
Obama 29 (-4)
Clinton 28 (+4)
Richardson 7 (-2)
Biden 3 (nc)
Undecided 2

Clinton leads John Edwards by 2.0% in the newly updated RCP Average for Iowa, while Barack Obama is just 0.3% behind in third place.

On the Republican side, Huckabee has continued to gain, but Romney's rebound has closed the gap to 7 points:

Republicans
Huckabee 34 (+3 vs. last poll Dec 10-13)
Romney 27 (+5)
Thompson 11 (+2)
Giuliani 8 (-1)
McCain 8 (+1)
Paul 8 (+1)
Undecided 3

Huckabee leads Mitt Romney by 5.7% in the updated RCP Average for Iowa. McCain and Thompson are tied for a distant third place at 11% each.

This time he's going after Huckabee:

Speaking of Huckabee, Jonathan Martin thinks Huck might have flubbed the Bhutto fallout.

The Romney-McCain feud continued this morning on Fox and Friends:

More videos in the Vlog.

Peter Nicholas of the LA Times reports that Hillary isn't taking any questions on her final "Time to Pick a President" tour of Iowa. What ever happened to "let's chat?"

On this day in 1856 Woodrow Wilson is born in Staunton, Virginia. Also on this day in 1973 Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn published the first of his three-volume The Gulag Archipelago in the original Russian in France. On to today's top election stories:

"Candidates' Foreign Policy Views Take on Added Significance After Bhutto's Death" (Thomas Beaumont, Des Moines Register) Unexpected events like the assassination of Benazir Bhutto could have profound consequences on a presidential election. Or they might not. Will foreign-policy candidates like John McCain and Joe Biden benefit or will less experienced candidates like Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee? We'll know in a week.

"McCain and Giuliani Point to Pakistan" (Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post) John McCain and Rudy Giuliani used Bhutto's assassination to remind voters of their credentials in battling Islamist terrorism, even pointing out their rivals' lack of experience.

"Obama Aide Ties Pakistan to Iraq War'" (Jeff Zeleny, New York Times) Barack Obama saw the assassination in a different way, as top campaign aide David Axelrod told reporters yesterday. Bhutto's death, he said, was the result of the instability and loss of focus created by the Iraq war. He also tied Hillary Clinton's decision to authorize the war as an example of failed judgment.

"Obama Catches Clinton in N.H.; Iowa Remains a 3-way Contest" (Janet Hook, Los Angeles Times) A new LAT/Bloomberg poll shows Obama leading Clinton in New Hampshire by two points, while also showing that the race in Iowa is a tie between him, Clinton and John Edwards. In light of Bhutto's assassination, however, the poll also found that most respondents consider Clinton better equipped to protect the country.

"Guiliani, Huckabee Battle in Florida" (Roberto Santiago, Phil Long, and Andres Amerikaner, Miami Herald) Both Giuliani and Huckabee campaigned in Florida yesterday, where the RCP Average shows a statistical tie between them. The state is important for Giuliani, who hopes to start a surge of primary victories there on Jan. 29 leading to Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. If Rudy can pull off a win there, it might stunt whatever momentum Huckabee gets from victories in Iowa and South Carolina.

"Cashing In From the Outside" (Brody Mullins, Wall Street Journal) Independent groups, which can receive unlimited donations, have already spent $4 million on ads in Iowa, which, due to regulations, are more often than not attack ads. As John Edwards has discovered, the support of an outside group isn't always helpful.

"Seeing New Possibilities in Iowa, McCain Boosts His Effort" (Sasha Issenberg, Boston Globe) It's the story of the week: Thanks to rising poll numbers, John McCain is competing in Iowa, if not for first, than for a strong third to give him some momentum going into New Hampshire. According to reporter Issenberg, McCain aides speculate that as few as 2,000 votes could separate fifth place from third in Iowa.

"Romney Makes Closing Argument in N.H." (Glen Johnson, Associated Press) Before heading for Iowa for some last minute campaigning, Mitt Romney made his final appeal to New Hampshire voters. Emphasizing his background and business experience, Romney contrasted his resume with unnamed rivals, Huckabee and McCain.

"Edwards Reaches New Heights in Iowa" (David Paul Kuhn, The Politico) Much like McCain in New Hampshire, Edwards is experiencing a flush of hope in a must-win state. A victory there for Edwards could upend both Obama's and Clinton's campaigns -- not a bad feat for a candidate many had written off a few months ago.

Get these and today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.

The ad war between Mitt Romney and John McCain is heating up in New Hampshire, with both candidates releasing new spots this morning. Here they are, starting with Romney's ad, titled "Future":

McCain's new ad is titled "Endorsed" which isn't available on YouTube yet but can be viewed on the McCain campaign web site here.

UPDATE: Here it is:

Yesterday we heard statements from the presidential candidates on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the former prime minister of Pakistan. Today, the major newspapers around the country have weighed in, and here are the varying takes on the tragedy:

"Elections...and a restored democracy remain the best way for the centrist majority in Pakistan to rally against the forces of extremism that yesterday realized a great, though despicable, victory" (Washington Post).

"The United States cannot afford to have Pakistan unravel any further. The lesson of the last six years is that authoritarian leaders -- even ones backed with billions in American aid -- don't make reliable allies, and they can't guarantee security" (New York Times).

Bhutto "wasn't just the leader of her party, the Pakistan People's Party. She was the PPP. She leaves no obvious political heir. With her death, the most progressive voice in Pakistani politics is gone" (Chicago Tribune).

Bhutto's assassination "provided a stark reminder that, despite the improved military situation in Iraq, the future of the War on Terror remains a critical, if not overriding, issue facing the US electorate." (New York Post)

The assassination is a "serious blow to President Pervez Musharraf. ...it denies him a counterpart from the democratic side of Pakistani politics with whom he can do business" (Baltimore Sun).

"Bhutto's murder is a desolating reminder that the people of Pakistan have not had the government they deserve or the leaders they need" (Boston Globe).

"Also a casualty was the Bush administration's foreign policy, which had placed its hopes for stability in Pakistan on a political marriage of convenience between Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf" (Philadelphia Inquirer).

Bhutto "is dead. And with her may also go the world's hopes for stability in Pakistan" (San Francisco Chronicle).

Bhutto's "assassination threatens to set in motion a chain of events whose end could be any of a number of very grim scenarios" (Washington Times).

It "is likely to prompt calls for a wholesale review of U.S. policy toward a country crucial to regional stability and the war on terrorism. Such a review is overdue" (Dallas Morning News).

"Her murder reinforces the notion of Pakistan as it exists now, a test between the raw power of the state versus a swirling mass of insurgent groups and terrorists" (Seattle Times).

2008 is just around the corner, and Iowa will soon be upon us. Check out RealClearBlogs for all of the latest from around the blogosphere. Here are this morning's headlines:

To The Wire: Are Democrats tied in New Hampshire and Iowa?

Crassidates: Should presidential candidates spin Bhutto's assassination?

After Bhutto: What's next for Pakistan?

One would think that a crisis abroad, such as the one that erupted in Pakistan yesterday with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, would benefit '08 presidential candidates possessing the most well established foreign policy credentials - if it had any effect on the race at all. And while that seems to be true on the Republican side with most observers suggesting the news may marginally boost John McCain, the same is not true for the Democrats.

As Steven wrote yesterday, the consensus seems to be that to the degree the Bhutto assassination has any effect at all it will work in Hillary Clinton's favor. One name conspicuously missing from the discussion is Joe Biden, who probably has more real experience in the foreign policy workings of the United States government than all the other Democrats running for president combined.

Indeed, Clinton's "closing argument" in Iowa - we live in serious times that demand a person with enough experience to step into the White House and lead from day one - is in many ways an effective argument in favor of Joe Biden. Yet despite repeated (and ongoing) talk of Biden being a "sleeper" and a "dark horse" in Iowa, he continues to languish in the polls showing little if any upward momentum.

Biden must be frustrated that Democratic voters indicate that they value experience but appear to be grading on a curve. As Patrick Healy of the New York Times pointed out earlier this week, Hillary Clinton is seen by voters as possessing a tremendous amount of experience, though in reality her experience in the White House was very limited, especially on matters of national security and foreign policy.

Clearly the perception of Clinton is enhanced by the relative comparison with her two main rivals: both of whom have zero national security/foreign policy experience and have served a combined 9 years in the Senate.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden entered the Senate in 1972 at the age of thirty (13 years younger than Obama when he took office in 2004) and is the Chairman - and one of the longest serving members - of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Put simply, Biden has probably forgotten more about US foreign policy than the three most likely winners of Iowa know about the subject put together.

RCP Associate Editor Reid Wilson touched down in Iowa this morning and will be on the ground covering the final days of the Iowa caucuses. Check out Politics Nation for Reid's latest dispatches.

In presidential politics, the press tends to focus on the labors of the campaigns, as if those were the true determinants of electoral trends.

But, as the tragic death of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan reminds us, candidates are at the mercy of events and it is those events that mostly determine political trends. If the economy turns south, the incumbent almost always suffers. And, during almost any foreign policy crisis - even one in which the President is partially responsible, as with the Bay of Pigs in 1961 - voters instinctively rally around the incumbent.

That, too, is likely to be the case here. And, with President Bush not on the ballot, the most senior figures in the race on either side of the aisle who may inherit that "rally round the flag" effect are Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Clinton, in fact, may benefit the most. Over the past two months, Barack Obama's surge has coincided with a shift in the Democratic campaign's focus from foreign policy issues - largely centering on the Iraq War- ­ to domestic issues. Now, with a renewed focus on foreign affairs in the days before the Iowa caucus, voters may put a heavier premium on experience, which could hurt him.

Then, again, a week is a long time in the accelerated age of the internet. It remains to be seen whether this story is able to dominate the news until Iowa, whether it fades, or whether something else takes its place.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/

Bloomberg/LA Times polls in Iowa & New Hampshire conducted December 20-23 and the 26th. (Note: in both states they provide three sets of numbers (Dem, Dem RV, Dem LV and GOP, GOP RV, and GOP LV), and Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times both report the registered voter results which are slightly different than the likely voter numbers used below)

In Iowa, (Dec 20-23, 389 Dem LV, MoE +/-5%; 174 GOP LV, MoE +/-7%), the poll of likely voters has Clinton up 6 on Edwards and 9 on Obama, and Huckabee up 8 on Romney:

Iowa
Democrats
Clinton 31
Edwards 25
Obama 22
Richardson 7
Biden 6
Undecided 6

Clinton now leads by 4.3% in the RCP Average for Iowa.

Republicans
Huckabee 36
Romney 28
Thompson 10
McCain 8
Giuliani 8
Undecided 7

Overall, Huckabee now leads by 3.8% in the RCP Average for Iowa.

In New Hampshire (Dec 20-23, 361 Dem LV, MoE +/-5; 318 GOP LV, MoE +/-6%), on the Democratic side Obama leads Clinton by 2 and Romney leads McCain by 14 on the Republican side:

New Hampshire
Democrats
Obama 32
Clinton 30
Edwards 20
Richardson 4
Undecided 12

Clinton leads in the RCP Average for New Hampshire by 2.6%.

Republicans
Romney 34
McCain 20
Giuliani 17
Huckabee 12
Paul 4
Thompson 4
Undecided 8

Romney's lead in the RCP Average for New Hampshire is now 5.6%.

New Strategic Vision poll in Iowa (Dec 26-27, 600 Dem LV, 600 GOP LV, MoE +/-4.5%). On the Democratic race, it's about as tight a three-way race as possible, with very little movement over the last 10 days:

Democrats
Obama 30 (nc vs last poll Dec 16-18)
Clinton 29 (+2)
Edwards 28 (+1)
Biden 5 (nc)
Richardson 2 (-1)
Dodd 1 (nc)
Kucinich 1 (nc)
Undecided 4 (-2)

Overall, Clinton leads by 2.2% in the RCP Average for Iowa.

On the Republican side, the race is also extremely tight, with Huckabee appearing to tick down over the last ten days while Romney appears to have ticked up, and McCain looking to be making up late ground.

Republicans
Huckabee 29 (-2 vs. last poll Dec 16-18)
Romney 27 (+2)
Thompson 15 (-1)
McCain 14 (+6)
Giuliani 4 (-2)
Paul 4 (-1)
Undecided 6 (nc)

Overall, Huckabee still leads by 3.0% in the latest RCP Average for Iowa.

In addition to the Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, at least a dozen more people were killed in a suicide attack near Islamabad.

Speaking from Crawford, President Bush condemned the attack, calling it a "cowardly act."

Bhutto's death creates a serious crisis for U.S. efforts to stabilize Pakistan, policy experts told the Washington Post.

If there was any suggestion that Bhutto's death might calm the rhetoric between the candidates, think again. And again.

While in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney made his closing argument to voters before heading to Iowa.

Already in Iowa, Fred Thompson seems to have broken his "no funny hats" rule -- but at least he did it while standing next to the Duke.

Hillary's new ad running in South Carolina:

Responding to Obama's closing argument, John Edwards tomorrow will argue against the "academic theory of change."

Meanwhile, Edwards tells Radio Iowa what he would do were he president regarding Bhutto's assassination.

Sniping from the backbenches, Joe Biden goes after Bill Richardson's call for Musharraf's resignation: "It's so wildly irresponsible that it can't go unchallenged."

Is it dark in here? Jonathan Martin notes that Fred, Rudy and McCain have "gone dark" in Iowa. But not Mitt!

Via Obama's Web site, here's his new -- and potentially final -- stump speech, which he delivered in Des Moines today:

Ten months ago, I stood on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois, and began an unlikely journey to change America.

I did not run for the presidency to fulfill some long-held ambition or because I believed it was somehow owed to me. I chose to run in this election - at this moment - because of what Dr. King called "the fierce urgency of now." Because we are at a defining moment in our history. Our nation is at war. Our planet is in peril. Our health care system is broken, our economy is out of balance, our education system fails too many of our children, and our retirement system is in tatters.

At this defining moment, we cannot wait any longer for universal health care. We cannot wait to fix our schools. We cannot wait for good jobs, and living wages, and pensions we can count on. We cannot wait to halt global warming, and we cannot wait to end this war in Iraq.

I chose to run because I believed that the size of these challenges had outgrown the capacity of our broken and divided politics to solve them; because I believed that Americans of every political stripe were hungry for a new kind of politics, a politics that focused not just on how to win but why we should, a politics that focused on those values and ideals that we held in common as Americans; a politics that favored common sense over ideology, straight talk over spin.

Most of all, I believed in the power of the American people to be the real agents of change in this country - because we are not as divided as our politics suggests; because we are a decent, generous people willing to work hard and sacrifice for future generations; and I was certain that if we could just mobilize our voices to challenge the special interests that dominate Washington and challenge ourselves to reach for something better, there was no problem we couldn't solve - no destiny we couldn't fulfill.

Reid Wilson has some more information on John Edwards and his campaign's suspiciously close association with the 527 group Alliance for a New America.

Even with Iowa so near, the candidates will likely take it easy on each other today in light of Bhutto's assassination. Or maybe not.

Anyway, over at Commentary, John Podhoretz has some thoughts on how this might change the presidential race:

American politics would dearly love to take a holiday from history, just as it did in the 1990s. But our enemies are not going to allow us to do so. The murder of Bhutto moves foreign policy, the war on terror, and the threat of Islamofascism back into the center of the 2008 campaign. How candidates respond to it, and issues like it that will come up in the next 10 months, will determine whether they are fit for the presidency.

It will be interesting to see if the tone of the campaign changes at all. Bhutto's assassination is a big deal, but does it touch Americans close enough? How many even knew who Bhutto was and what she represented? That's not meant to be snide, but an actual question.

New Richardson ad focused on Iraq: