Michael Barone has a timely piece this morning, chronicling how Iowa voters may be ready to upset the conventional wisdom. It's all of a piece with what may be this campaign's first major development: The rise of the outsider.

As noted before, voter dissatisfaction with "politics as usual" appears to be near record levels. In this environment which resembles the political atmosphere in 1992 and 1976 the less a candidate is identified with conventional politics, the better he or she does. Thus, it's no surprise that Mike Huckabee and John McCain, the two most unconventional or independent Republican candidates (albeit for different reasons) are doing well, just as Barack Obama, so new that he appears unconventional, is doing the same.

The problem for all these candidates, however, is that once you become a front-runner, you become, by definition, somewhat conventional.

And, voters begin to turn against you. That, in fact, is what happened in 1976 where Jimmy Carter swept almost all the initial primaries, only to find in a few months that he was now considered an "old face" with the consequence that Jerry Brown and Frank Church began to beat him almost everywhere (though not in time to wrest the nomination away from him).

This year, in the internet age, that process will be greatly accelerated, so that in a matter of weeks or even days, Huckabee will appear as if he's been around for decades. How do you continue to appear unconventional and new in an age when everything is sped up beyond recognition? The candidate who figures that out may be the next president.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/