Election Night Thread

NASHUA - I'm settled in and ready for a long night. Check back on this thread for updates throughout the night.

11:08 PM "Let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire's just given me" - Hillary Clinton speaking now. - BLAKE DVORAK

10:35 PM With about 67% reporting, the Associated Press and MSNBC have called the race for Clinton. - BLAKE DVORAK

10:24 PM "I am in this race through the convention," said John Edwards, who's not dropping out, at least tonight. - BLAKE DVORAK

10:15 PM Word is Obama's folks are expecting big numbers out of the western city of Hanover, a liberal college town. - BLAKE DVORAK

10:07 PM Another great night for public opinion polling, eh? Reminds me off another famous evening. - JAY COST

9:30 PM Clinton's lead is shrinking, from four points down to two, 39 to 37 with 43% reporting. - TOM BEVAN

9:28 PM McCain ends victory speech saying he's off to Michigan tomorrow to "win again." - TOM BEVAN

9:09 PM New Question: Did McCain hurt Obama? - JAY COST

9:08 PM Exit poll has been reweighted and combined with town-by-town returns from sources suggest Senator Clinton may very well win by two points. - JOHN McINTYRE

8:58 PM Michael Barone just said he thinks Hillary Clinton could win tonight. That would be an unreal outcome given the events of the last few days and the overwhelming amount of polling data showing her trailing Obama. - TOM BEVAN

8:25 PM Marc Ambinder's posts the internals of NH GOP exit polls. McCain won Republicans by 5%. He won Indy's by 12%. That gives us a sense of what his min/max margins of victory are tonight. Assuming an unbiased sample - it would be somewhere between 5% minus the margin of error and 12% plus the margin of error. For Romney to hope to continue, he needs to hope that it is something like 5% minus the margin of error. - JAY COST

8:16 PM Watching Bill Hemmer on Fox talk about Romney's strategy moving forward - I can't help think that Romney is still very low in the national polls. These are quickly becoming relevant as February 5th comes up. The Romney strategy was to win Iowa and New Hampshire, and then surge into first place. But he is still stuck toward the back of the pack. Those national polls are a rough, but not horrible, indicator of Super Tuesday strength. Suppose he moves on to Michigan and wins - will that be enough for him to surge into a competitive position in advance of February 5th? JAY COST

8:12 PM Fox calls New Hampshire for McCain. JAY COST

8:09 PM With Rudy in a dead-head with Ron Paul for fourth I am struck by the parallels between his strategy and Al Gore's in 1988. Gore thought he could wait until Super Tuesday to make a serious play for states. The strategy backfired - as Gore and Jesse Jackson effectively neutralized each other in the South. This points to one of the many risks of Rudy's strategy. Rudy's strategy for Super Tuesday really depends on who is left in the field - and how strong they are. Risky indeed. JAY COST

8:06 PM CNN reports its exits show, "Democratic Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in a tight race in New Hampshire while Sen. John McCain holds a lead over Republican rival Mitt Romney, early results show." - TOM BEVAN

8:02 PM Brit Hume is reporting the FOX News exit polls as McCain 35, Romney 30, and Obama 39, Clinton 34. - TOM BEVAN

7:59 PM Steve Brown of Fox News reporting that the Clinton folks "tend to like" what they're seeing int the exits. - TOM BEVAN

7:40 PM Patrick Healy of the New York Times has the details on a one-page memo from James Carville to Hillary Clinton. - TOM BEVAN

7:25 PM Fred Thompson is going to finish last here tonight, but he's already making news in South Carolina, kicking off an 11 day bus tour of the Palmetto State by telling voters, ""I don't know of any better place to stand my ground and test my case than in South Carolina." - TOM BEVAN

7:11 PM Media outlets are starting to release small portions of the exit polls - and I noted something interesting. During Special Report, Fox reported that McCain has an 11 point lead among independents. Meanwhile, ABC reports that 4 in 10 of Republican voters are Independents. This is roughly equal to the percentage of Independents in 2000. Marc Ambinder is reporting that 3 in 10 of Republicans are independents. - JAY COST

6:52 PM While we don't know who will win on the GOP side, it seems clear that Huckabee will finish third here. That may work out better than most people think, especially if it is a "push" at the top between McCain and Romney. They'll head off to a showdown in Michigan having blunted each other's momentum, while Huckabee will head straight to South Carolina where he's gotten a nice post-Iowa bump and now leads by 12.7% in the RCP Average. - TOM BEVAN

6:42 PM More exit info from ABC News. - TOM BEVAN

6:37 PM CNN reports that exit numbers show "Eighteen percent of Republicans and 15 percent of Democrats said they picked their candidate on Election Day." - TOM BEVAN

6:34 PM With the massive turnout today, the consensus seemed to be that Obama was headed toward a smashing victory. But there's a bit of buzz in the background that the early numbers show he'll win tonight, but perhaps by a smaller margin than people were thinking. - TOM BEVAN

6:32 PM Cillizza says the Obama and McCain campaigns "expressed growing confidence they would score major victories tonight." - TOM BEVAN

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