1. Compared to the Republicans last night, this was a tea party -- sorely below expectations and hype, but not bad on substance. When Wolf responded to Clinton's answer on her Iraq vote that she might have been "naive" to trust President Bush, it was a last-ditch effort to get some sparks flying.

2. Best Hillary line: "It took a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush, and it looks like it will take another Clinton to clean up after this one."

3. Best Obama line: "If you look at what [Romney's] spent, I don't think he's gotten a very good return on investment."

4. Immigration. You could tell that both are looking toward the general election, but still feel the tug of the base and Hispanic voters toward the more liberal position. So what we got from both was a commitment to some sort of vague comprehensive plan. Even with his immigration sins among conservatives, McCain could win a debate on this issue pretty easily right now.

5. Compared to the GOP debate, almost nothing about California issues. Clinton holds a good lead right now, so it might have been better for Obama to address some local matters.

6. Winner? Probably Clinton, who didn't make any noticeable gaffes. Obama didn't go on the attack as much as I thought he would, but that's not to say he should have.

It's on tonight at the Kodak. To mix politics with football, what did Terrell Owens say? "Get your popcorn ready."

Even if it's not exactly a "We Got Him" moment, any time we can bag one of these guys is good news for the world.

Senate Democrats today conceded they don't have the 60 votes to advance their own stimulus package, meaning the House's version, which was developed with the White House, will likely pass.

Romney called McCain's performance last night "reminiscent of the Nixon era," which we assume is a bad thing.

Moderates Rising?

The governors keep coming in for McCain ... and Drudge says Nancy Reagan is on board too.

"America should be designed for people like us. That's why I am running for president of the United States of America, for all people, black, white, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, gay, straight all people," said Obama in Los Angeles to a largely black and Hispanic crowd.

Even subdued, Bill Clinton is still making news which could be used against his wife.

Hillary: "Times"

Obama: "Stock"

This report by Brian Ross certainly isn't going to win Hillary Clinton any friends in the progressive, Wal-Mart hating community - a group that John Edwards spent a lot of time playing to:

Get a ton more Election '08 videos on the RCP Vlog.

Actually, it's not new, but a recycled ad from about three months ago:

Romney strategist Alex Gage has released a memo to "interested parties," the gist of which is summed up by the first paragraph:

Public polling shows McCain ahead in many states, but we are now in a two-man race and a few points' movement among conservatives is all that's needed to tip the scales in favor of Gov. Romney. (emphasis in the original)

Gage goes on to argue that McCain's coalition simply can't hold up in a two person race on February 5th:

The McCain formula for success worked in a divided field when conservatives were fractured, but even a small coalescence of conservatives around Gov. Romney would reveal his support as a coalition too small to win the nomination of the Republican party. Conservatives, self-identified Republicans, and voters who approve of President Bush are likely to be majorities of the electorate in all of the February 5th states. It is therefore easy to see how we defeat McCain in a two-main race by focusing on traditional Republican primary voters.

We still have an uphill battle in front of us - the mainstream media is ready to anoint John McCain and he will have advantages in many states from running for president for the past eight years - but Gov. Romney has a clear path to victory on February 5th and beyond. (emphasis in the original)

The fly in the ointment? Mike Huckabee. The memo contains not a single mention of the former Arkansas Governor.

National Journal has ranked Sen. Barack Obama as the most liberal member of the Senate. Sen. Hillary Clinton ranked 16th.

The magazine ranks members of the Senate and House annually based on key votes in each chamber. Using 99 specific Senate votes in 2007, Obama finished with the most liberal record, after ranking 16th and 10th in his first two years in the Senate.

In 2004, National Journal ranked John Kerry as the most liberal senator, and the Bush campaign often used this as a talking point.

A new Rasmussen poll in California (Jan. 29, 652 GOP LV, 807 Dem LV) has McCain with a 4-point lead over Romney, and Clinton leading Obama by 3. The polls were conducted prior to Giuliani and Edwards officially leaving the race.

Republicans

McCain 32 (+8 vs. last poll, Jan. 14)
Romney 28 (+11)
Giuliani 14 (+3)
Huckabee 11 (-2)
Paul 5 (-1)

65% of Giuliani voters had a favorable opinion of Romney, and 61% felt he had at least a somewhat likely chance of winning the general election if nominated. Comparativley, 53% of Giuliani voters had a favorable opinion of McCain, while 68% felt he had at least a somewhat likely chance of defeating a Democrat if nominated.

McCain holds an 8.3-point lead in the RCP Average for California

Democrats

Clinton 43 (+5 vs. last poll, Jan. 14)
Obama 40 (+7)
Edwards 9 (-3)

Clinton holds an 11.7-point lead in the RCP Average for California

Some thoughts and stats from TNR's John Judis:

Who will get John Edwards's votes? The exit polls give a split verdict. Those in Iowa and South Carolina show a slight tilt to Hillary Clinton. If you look at those voters among whom Edwards enjoyed disproportionate strength, it was among voters less likely to switch to Obama. In Iowa, it was among older (60-64 years old) and conservative voters. In South Carolina, it was among older (60 years and up), white male, moderate or somewhat conservative voters who wanted to keep troops in Iraq "as long as needed."

In these states, Edwards appears to have picked up white voters who wouldn't vote for Obama. In South Carolina, 35 percent of Edwards' voters said the country is "definitely not ready" for a black president. Only 22 percent of these voters said the country was "definitely not ready" for a woman president. Edwards' voters in South Carolina were also more dissatisfied with the prospect of an Obama nomination than a Clinton one. Fifty percent of Edwards' voters in South Carolina said they would be "somewhat dissatisfied" and 44 percent "very dissatisfied" with Obama's nomination. With Edwards out of the field, some of these voters may not vote at all; but if they do, they seem more likely to back Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama.

In New Hampshire, however, the story is a little different. Edwards ran strongest in New Hampshire among white, male, unionized, religiously observant Catholic voters who saw themselves as "moderates." Twenty-nine percent of Edwards' supporters had a "strongly unfavorable" view of Hillary Clinton; only 10 percent had a "strongly unfavorable" view of Obama. The exit polls didn't ask about social issues, but my guess is that these Edwards voters were more socially conservative on issues like abortion than the Clinton or Obama voters. These kind of Democratic primary voters will be common in states like Ohio, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Some of them might switch to Obama.

So who comes out ahead? I think it's very inconclusive. Clinton will pick up votes from Obama in some Southern states like Georgia that Obama should win anyway--and Obama will pick up a few votes in middle Atlantic or Midwestern states that Clinton will probably win anyway.

Watching the Schwarzenegger endorsement just now, apparently the GOP has just become the party of global warming. Nothing much else is being discussed -- oh, except for the Governator's endorsement.

Even Rudy, who's there, used his time at the podium to talk about it.

Given that the event is being held at a solar-power plant, maybe this isn't a surprise. Maybe it's merely a play to California Republicans. But McCain's global-warming stance, although never exactly hidden, was always in the background. Not anymore.

Is the lurch-to-the-right stage of the Republican primary already over?

How bad was it for John McCain before New Hampshire? The AP reports that McCain ended 2007 with a $4.5 million debt. He raised just $6.5 million in the last quarter, with $3 million cash on hand. The good news is that McCain has raised $7 million since then. It pays to win.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama, doing what he does best, has raised $32 million during January alone.

It's not like he wasn't going to run anything, the question is whether it's too late. From the AP:

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney plans to run a "significant" level of television ads in California and other states that vote Tuesday in essentially a national primary, aides said Thursday, signaling a willingness to aggressively try to derail Republican front-runner John McCain.

Since his defeat in Florida Tuesday, the former Massachusetts governor has been debating over just how much of an effort to make in which of the 21 states that hold primaries and caucuses Tuesday. Romney has tried to cast himself as more conservative than McCain.

Romney is trying to get back on track after two straight losses to McCain -- in South Carolina on Jan. 19 and more recently in the winner-take-all state of Florida. That victory gave McCain the advantage in the all-important delegate count as well as the momentum in the GOP race.

Hillary's latest:

Also, since I missed Hillary's statement on Edwards' withdrawal yesterday, here it is:

John Edwards ended his campaign today in the same way he started it - by standing with the people who are too often left behind and nearly always left out of our national debate.

John ran with compassion and conviction and lifted this campaign with his deep concern for the daily lives of the American people. That is what this election is about - it's about our people. And John is one of the greatest champions the American people could ask for.

I wish John and Elizabeth all the best. They have my great personal respect and gratitude. And I know they will continue to fight passionately for the country and the people they love so deeply.

On this day in 1865 Congress approved the 13th Amendment abolishing slavery. Also on this day too-often-forgotten Founding Father Gouverneur Morris is born. On to today's top stories:

"Accusations Fly at Republican Debate" (Cathleen Decker and Seema Mehta, Los Angeles Times) There were certainly moments in last night's GOP debate when you wondered if it was a good idea to seat the candidates on a ledge, as Mitt Romney appeared about ready to toss John McCain over. Not that Romney wasn't justified in his frustration, since McCain didn't exactly back down from his contention that Mitt favored -- or something -- a "timetable" -- of some sort -- in Iraq.

"A Scramble for Edwards and Giuliani Fundraisers" (Matthew Mosk, Washington Post) With two high-profile campaigns over, the rest of the field is fighting like hyenas for the scraps -- pardon the expression. Combined, Rudy and Edwards raised $100 million last year and it wasn't on charm alone. They both had competent fundraisers working their operations, and now those same fundraisers will be in high demand as the primary season grinds on.

"Romney Issue: How Many More Trips to the Well?" (Michael Levenson, Boston Globe) McCain derided Romney last night for the latter's willingness to pump his own fortune into his campaign. But it's a serious question for Romney, who has relied on his own wealth when the money just wasn't coming in. So far, Romney has not run any ads in Feb. 5 states, but even when Romney does fall back on his money, the results aren't so good (e.g., Florida, Iowa, South Carolina).

"The New Race: Four Candidates, 24 States and One Hectic Week" (Adam Nagourney, New York Times) So here we are: Two parties, each with two formidable candidates, all careening toward one penultimate day. Remember the law of Thunderdome: Two men enter, one man leaves.

"Schwarzenegger Likely to Back McCain" (Mark Barabak and Evan Halper, Los Angeles Times) It was mostly an open secret anyway, but yesterday Gov. Schwarzenegger made it official. Once a GOP superstar, Arnold has upset the base, outside of his own state, lately with very non-conservative ideas, the kind of ideas that make McCain a problem for conservatives.

"Obama Faces Task of Filling Gaps Among Whites, Hispanics" (Gromer Jeffers, Dallas Morning News) Barack Obama certainly hasn't done poorly with white voters, even in South Carolina, where Clinton just barely edged him out. But he'll have to grow his support and at least grab a few Hispanic voters if he has hopes of winning of the nomination.

"Clinton, McCain Likely Gain Most From Dropout Candidates" (Steven Thomma, McClatchy Newspapers) Even though Edwards sings a far-left populist message that at first glance appears more in line with Obama, his share of voters in the primary states signals that an Edwards voter might be more like a Hillary voter. On the GOP side, Rudy's supporters will probably take their candidate's endorsement of McCain to heart.

"Obama Says Clinton Would Be a Step Back" (Nedra Pickler and Mike Glover, Associated Press) A great back-and-forth occurred between Obama and Clinton yesterday that will surely make tonight's debate one to watch.

"Nader Says He's Considering a New White House Run" (Kristin Jensen, Bloomberg) He has his fans of course, but wouldn't Ralph help his cause more just barking from the sidelines?

Get today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.

A couple hours before last night's debate:

"John McCain is the most qualified candidate to be the next commander in chief of the United States," Rudy Giuliani said a little while ago. "He's an American hero."

The Fed made its second cut in just 8 days, slashing Federal funds rate a half point.

Tonight's GOP Debate at the Reagan Ranch in Simi Valley, Calif., will be without some familiar faces -- Rudy's and Fred's. But perhaps that will just give McCain and Romney more of an opportunity to continue their fight.

Graced with a pretty cool photograph, the NYT's Jeff Zeleny gives the latest on Obama from Denver.

Coming from a Murdoch paper, not sure what this means, but the New York Post has endorsed Barack Obama. It could play well in New York.

Chris Cillizza takes a look at how Giuliani's departure will affect the race.

"They're banging down our doors," said Edwards campaign manager Joe Trippi, talking about the two Democratic finalists.

First Read: "For a second-straight day, Bill Clinton did what he rarely does: not make news."

Uh-oh: He's back -- maybe.

Two Republicans announced today they would not seek re-election: Ky. Rep. Ron Lewis and Va. Rep. Tom Davis.

Um, I think this is supposed to appeal to the "youth vote":

Way out, man.

Meanwhile, this anti-McCain ad is from a group called "Citizens United":

Beth Reinhard and Casey Woods of the Miami Herald deliver one of the best lines I've read on Rudy Giuliani's unsuccessful last stand in Florida:

After camping out in the state for weeks, he seemed less hero than houseguest, his charms -- and poll numbers -- wearing thinner as each day passed.

From earlier today:

Edwards has 62 delegates and Democratic Convention Watch blog explains what happens to them:

First, all of his superdelegates go back into the no endorsement pool. Second, his 4 delegates from New Hampshire and his 8 delegates from South Carolina will go to the convention as Uncommitted. And finally, his delegates from Iowa don't exist anymore, but will be replaced with Clinton or Obama delegates. That's because delegates to the national convention haven't actually been picked yet in these two states. There are Congressional District and state conventions still to come, and all his delegates to the Congressional District conventions will have to vote for one of the remaining candidates to the state level convention.

(ht: Ben Smith)

Discussing the two man race:

The Edwards campaign said their guy won't be endorsing anyone today in New Orleans. Which brings up this question: Is there any debate on the matter? Would Edwards endorse Hillary? It's hard to see why he would. The only question is whether he'll endorse anyone.

To perhaps the more important issue -- Where do Edwards' supporters go? -- again, likely to Obama, but there's also the unions to consider. Edwards piled up quite a few union endorsements that will be sought after by Obama and Clinton.

In any event, the race to win Edwards' endorsement, delegates and supporters is already on. This is Obama's statement:

John Edwards has spent a lifetime fighting to give voice to the voiceless and hope to the struggling, even when it wasn't popular to do or covered in the news. At a time when our politics is too focused on who's up and who's down, he made a nation focus again on who matters -- the New Orleans child without a home, the West Virginia miner without a job, the families who live in that other America that is not seen or heard or talked about by our leaders in Washington. John and Elizabeth Edwards have always believed deeply that we can change this -- that two Americans can become one, and that our country can rally around this common purpose. So while his campaign may end today, the cause of their lives endures for all of us who still believe that we can achieve that dream of one America.

UPDATE: Hillary has a photo of John and Elizabeth up on her site with the headline "We Salute John and Elizabeth Edwards".

John Edwards will use a speech in New Orleans today to drop out of the presidential race, MSNBC's Chuck Todd reports today. The last major casualty in the Democratic race before the nomination is decided, Edwards is ending his campaign in the same city he launched his bid in late 2006.

Edwards' exit will likely aid Barack Obama in some northern states, where liberals can't wrap their minds around Hillary Clinton, and will help Clinton in the South, where race now becomes more of a factor in many voters' minds. Clinton, too, will likely benefit from Edwards' labor backing; Obama has shown a marked lack of ability to win union support, while Clinton has backing from as many major national unions as Edwards did.

The real winner: MSNBC, which holds the race's first one-on-one debate tomorrow night in Los Angeles. With Edwards out of the race, there's no one left to play peace-maker between Clinton and Obama.

More videos, including Hillary's "victory" speech, in the Vlog.

FT. LAUDERDALE, FL - Let's start with the Democrats, because as consequential as the Republican outcome was last night, the race on the Democratic side had consequences as well.

Bill Bennett called it an ambush. I'd characterize it as an old fashioned mugging. Clinton came into Florida last night and gave what amounted to a victory speech, the first portion of which was carried live by all the cable networks. The front page of this morning's Miami Herald provides another indicator of last night's vote: under a banner headline "A Florida Boost," the paper gives equal billing to both the GOP and Democratic contests, with side by side pictures of John McCain and Hillary Clinton smiling and waving to supporters. The subhead just above Clinton's picture -- "Clinton dominates Obama and takes bragging rights heading into Super Tuesday" -- makes only the vaguest possible reference to the fact that the contest was meaningless for Democrats.

The Washington Post's treatment of yesterday's results is vastly more fair, and the New York Times doesn't mention Clinton at all on its front page, instead focusing extra attention on Giuliani's humiliating defeat.

So, obviously, the media's handling of the Democratic results in Florida is far from uniform, but to the extent the idea that she scored a meaningful victory here enters the consciousness of the Democratic electorate at all in upcoming February 5th states, it works to her advantage. Her campaign is smart to try and wring whatever positive spin it can out of Florida, even though in doing so they're being accused of violating the spirit of the pledge signed by all the Democratic candidates. But these are the Clintons, after all, and this ain't beanbag. Obama should have seen the mugging coming.

Turning to the Republicans, it seems to me it's hard to overstate how important of a victory it was for McCain. He accomplished three things of significance:

1) He beat Romney handily in a closed Republican primary. Despite losing self-identified conservatives 40 to 27, McCain ran better than Romney with large swaths of Republican voters across the state.

2) He knocked Giuliani out of the race and, better yet, will pick up his endorsement today. That puts McCain in the driver's seat to win the 201 winner take all delegates up for grabs in the Northeast on Tsunami Tuesday. Add 57 delegates he won last night, the 54 more he will get from winning Arizona on Tuesday, and the delegates he already had from New Hampshire and South Carolina, and McCain is already more than a third of the way to the magic number, not counting California and Illinois, where he already leads in the polls.

3) He has put enormous pressure on Romney's biggest asset: his pocketbook. Romney has already spent something like $17 million of his own money during the first 9 months of 2007. His FEC reports for Q4 2007 will come out tomorrow, and it's rumored the filing will show him spending perhaps as much as additional $25-30 million in the final quarter of last year, putting him close to $50 million thus far. To compete seriously on February 5th and to overcome, or at least try and neutralize McCain's momentum coming out of Florida, Romney is going to have to make another big financial commitment. Given he's currently at a disadvantage in the race, is Romney willing to double down and pull the trigger on putting in another $35-50 million to try and extend the contest? I guess we'll know the answer soon enough.

As the contest moves on and shifts focus, one thing is for sure: the race in Florida was everything it was advertised to be.

Pundits will spend the next few days analyzing what went wrong for Rudy Giuliani. And, it's true that he probably had the wrong strategy, the wrong ads, and stressed the wrong issues.

But the main reason he lost is pretty simple. He was from New York.

New York, of course, is the media capital and pundits there always think that the country thinks like they do and is waiting for one of their own, so to speak, to take up the mantle of leadership. But events keep indicating otherwise. It's true that Americans once turned to New York for their presidents -- but the last time was in 1944, when both nominees were from New York and Roosevelt campaigned triumphantly that October in the city that never sleeps.

But ever since, whether the name is Rockefeller, Lindsay, or Cuomo (who had the good sense not even to attempt a candidacy), New Yorkers have always ended up doing worse than expected in their quests for the presidency. It shouldn't be a surprise. True, Americans now have an enormous amount of respect and empathy for New Yorkers, particularly after 9/11. But they still don't think that New Yorkers particularly share their mores and values. Most Americans, after all, don't live in cities on the New York model any longer and would never consider doing so -- a fact that the current occupant of Gracie Mansion ought to consider before he coughs up a couple of hundred million in yet another fruitless quest. (Hillary, of course, is a carpetbagger, so she gets a pass on this issue, as did Nixon in '68.)

So, just like those who came before him. Giuliani has had to face a sad truth of presidential politics. Americans think New York is a nice place to visit. But they really don't want a president who lives there.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/

On this day in 1835 President Andrew Jackson survives an assassination attempt on his life which occurred, amazingly enough, in the House chamber. On to today's top stories:

"McCain Wins Florida, Becomes Frontrunner" (Jackie Calmes, Wall Street Journal) Too soon to put the frontrunner label on a GOP candidate yet? Not anymore. John McCain's Florida victory puts to rest notions that his earlier victories came about due not to Republican support but independent support. McCain pulled together a solid coalition of (moderate) conservatives, veterans, seniors, Hispanics, and economic conservatives to thoroughly scare the Romney camp.

"Rudy Defeat Marks End of 9/11 Politics" (Ben Smith and David Paul Kuhn, The Politico) While reporters Smith and Kuhn might be a little too harsh in their analysis, they are correct that Rudy Giuliani's "9/11 Message" fell on deaf ears. Whether that's because of "9/11 fatigue," we should remember that Rudy fell back on 9/11 heavily after he started dropping in the polls. Before that, Rudy ran on his record of mayor pre-9/11, but with 9/11 of course always near to that message. Whatever the case, the rise and fall of Rudy will be analyzed for years to come.

"For McCain, Momentum That May Be Hard to Stop" (Dan Balz, Washington Post) It wasn't so long ago that the words "brokered convention" were being uttered wistfully by many a pundit. Things look much differently this morning as we now look at a political landscape that seems to heavily favor McCain over Romney. McCain will certainly receive a bump for his Florida victory, which, despite Romney's vast resources, might lead him to the nomination on Feb. 5.

"Will Florida Victory Matter for Clinton?" (Lesley Clark, Miami Herald) Hillary's "victory" celebration last night in Florida at times looked more like a therapy session, as Clinton and her supporters sought to heal their South Carolina wounds. Depending on how the Clinton and Obama campaigns play Florida in the run-up to Feb. 5 would go a long way toward whether it matters for Clinton.

"Obama Cuts Rezko Ties" (Chris Fusco and Tim Novak, Chicago Sun-Times) In an attempt to finally cut all ties to Tony Rezko, Obama announced Tuesday night that he's giving back the rest of the donations that have any connection to the indicted businessman. That amounts to $72,650, bringing the total Obama is giving away to $157,835. Will we hear about any of this at Thursday's debate? Or does that close the matter?

"Schwarzenegger Praises McCain and Obama" (Carla Marinucci, San Francisco Chronicle) Now that the early primary states are out of the way, the campaign moves into the Governator's back yard, which, incidentally, is also part of the Kennedy back yard, from the Shriver side. Arnold hasn't endorsed anyone, but it's no secret he favors McCain's style of politics.

"Lieberman Rules Out Running With McCain" (Andrew Miga, Associated Press) A McCain-Lieberman ticket has been one of those fanciful "what-ifs" ever since the Connecticut Democrat-turned-Independent came on board the campaign. But with his recent denial -- "I'd tell him, 'Thanks, John, I've been there, I've done that. You can find much better,'" -- Lieberman is trying to end those rumors. For now at least.

"Talk Radio Impugns McCain's Liberal Record" (Donald Lambro, Washington Times) For Ditto-heads everywhere, last night was a tough one to swallow. Rush Limbaugh, along with a cohort of other influential conservative radio hosts, make no secret of their disdain for John McCain. But with a McCain nomination looking ever more likely, will the Ditto-heads try to find common ground?

"Double Wins Put Crist in Control" (Steve Bousquet, St. Petersburg Times) A potential VP candidate, Fla. Gov. Charlie Crist bet on McCain and won big time. The question now is whether Crist's "kingmaker" status elevates his own political ambitions.

Get today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.

John McCain won Florida by putting together the same basic voting coalition he forged in New Hampshire and South Carolina. What is impressive is that he did it in a closed primary. Registered Independents and Democrats were not allowed to vote, but McCain still won. Let's take a look at how he did it:

-McCain once again won those who are disenchanted by the Bush presidency. Most Florida Republicans (68%) approve of the Bush administration. Romney won them, 35% to 31%. McCain, however, scored an overwhelming, 22-point victory among the 32% of voters who disapprove. I think this is one of the evolving stories of the Republican contest. If you like Bush, you are inclined to Romney (or one of the other candidates, all of whom but Ron Paul do better among Bush supporters than Bush opponents). If you dislike Bush, you are inclined to McCain.

9:53PM - Add Senator Mel Martinez to the list of winners tonight. He looks a lot better backing a winning presidential candidate than he does stepping down prematurely as chair of the RNC. - REID WILSON

9:46PM - The other big winner tonight? Gov. Charlie Crist. From the St. Petersburg Times today on the Crist endorsement: "For Crist, the move is a risky one, but one with a big payoff if it makes him look like a kingmaker." - BLAKE DVORAK

9:42PM - Giuliani dropping out helps McCain, right? Well, not so fast. According to the exit polls, 49% of those who voted for Rudy today picked Mitt Romney as their 2nd choice while 44% picked McCain. And, interestingly, those who voted for Huckabee overwhelmingly picked McCain as their top 2nd choice over Mitt Romney, 54% to 32%. - TOM BEVAN

9:30PM - Rudy Giuliani, in his concession (withdrawal?) speech, calls the GOP the "Party of Bush." Those thumping sounds you just heard were NRCC chair Tom Cole and NRSC chair John Ensign bashing their heads against walls in frustration. - REID WILSON

9:12PM - Fox News and AP call for McCain. It makes sense. Like I said - if Romney is losing Tampa, is in a tie in Orlando, and getting trounced in Miami - there just are not enough Floridians for him to make up the difference. - JAY COST

9:10PM - A Mitt Romney spokesman tells RCP that the campaign has still not made a decision about television advertising in February 5 states. With six days to go until polls open, isn't that something he ought to take care of? We wonder, how damaging is a Florida loss to Romney? Has Romney held off on investing more in his campaign because he's re-evaluating, like he did before his Michigan win, and wondering whether the campaign is still worth it? - REID WILSON

9:07PM - And what of metro Miami?

Broward County: 38% in, McCain +7,762 over Romney
Miami-Dade County: 31% in, McCain + 26,968 votes over Romney (who is in third)
Palm Beach County: "0%" Reporting, McCain +2,852 over Romney

Total: McCain NET 27,582 out of votes cast 156,926, or a 17.5% lead.

I just don't see how Romney can find the votes in the panhandle to make up the difference. A split in Orlando, a slight lead in Tampa for McCain, a big lead in Miami for McCain. Where are the votes for Romney? - JAY COST

9:02PM - Huckabee just finished speaking in Missour-ah. He's not dropping out. - TOM BEVAN

8:54PM - And what of metro Tampa?

Hernando County 78% in, McCain +1,290
Hillsborough County 24% in, McCain +2,490
Pasco County 94% in, McCain +3,361
Pinellas County 18% in, McCain +2,685

Total: McCain NET 9,826 out of votes cast 144,232

That's a 6 point lead. My feeling at this point is that it would be very hard for ROmney to lose Tampa, lose Miami, tie Orlando, and still win the state. - JAY COST

8:53PM - An hour and a half after polls in Miami-Dade County closed, just 7% of precincts are reporting results. As we wrote this morning, Miami-Dade is historically late to report, meaning John McCain's lead there -- a 9-point margin at this point -- could boost his numbers throughout the night. Combine that with a stronger than average Huckabee showing in the Panhandle, and McCain looks stronger as the night goes on. - REID WILSON

8:48PM Hmm, what do you know? Hillary is giving something that looks awfully like a victory speech that is getting play on all the cable nets. - TOM BEVAN

8:40PM - Interesting results coming out of metro Orlando.

Lake County: 0% in, Romney +412 votes
Osceola County: 87% in, McCain +21 votes (no, that is not a typo)
Orange County: 91% in, Romney +19 votes (neither is that)
Seminole County: 70% in, Romney +1,337 votes
NET: Romney +1,789 votes OUT OF 120,000 total votes.

That's called a tie! - JAY COST

8:35PM - Halperin reporting Giuliani will drop out and endorse McCain as early as tomorrow in California. If McCain wins tonight, Giuliani's endorsement could be the clincher. - TOM BEVAN

8:31 - As Samuel L. Jackson once famously said - "Hold onto your butts!" Broward (est. pop. 1.8 million) and Miami-Dade (est. pop. 2.4 million) are beginning to report. They could very well overwhelm the current numbers. With 7% in, Miami-Dade is going 44% for McCain, 35% for Giuliani, 12% for Romney. 4% in from Broward, and it's 38% for McCain, 25% for Giuliani, and 22% for Romney. Still no word yet from Palm Beach. JAY COST

8:29PM - Six counties to watch tonight: In Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes and Washington counties, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are fighting over evangelicals in the Panhandle, while John McCain is counting on a big tunrout among veterans. If Huckabee scores well enough to seriously affect Romney's totals, McCain will have a good night. - REID WILSON

8:28PM - According to the CNN exits, Cubans comprised only 6% of the vote thus far (1,505 respondents) went 50% for McCain versus 34% for Giuliani, and only 10% for Romney. - TOM BEVAN

8:24PM - Brit Hume just announced the final FOX exits: McCain 34; Romney 31. - BLAKE DVORAK

8:06PM - CNN called the race for Clinton. - TOM BEVAN

8:03PM - More exits: Conservatives - Romney 40, McCain 27, Huckabee 15, Giuliani 13. Evangelicals - Romney 34, McCain 28, Huckabee 28. - TOM BEVAN

7:54PM - Another interesting note from metro Tampa. With 77% of precincts reporting in Pasco County, John McCain has a 2,800 vote lead. There is still an insignificant number of precincts from the other metro Tampa counties, but this is an intriguing early result. - JAY COST

7:52PM - AP's Charles Babington reports John Edwards has canceled two campaign trips to Alabama and North Dakota to make a major speech on poverty from New Orleans. That's the city in which Edwards kicked off his campaign in December, 2006. Advisers said Edwards does not plan to pull out of the race, but others close to the campaign, Babington writes, were surprised by the move. The campaign insisted Edwards would be at the Democratic debate in Los Angeles on Thursday. - REID WILSON

7:40 PM - The early returns are just that: early. But one poing of interest. With 91% of precincts reporting in Manatee County, McCain holds a slight lead over Mitt Romney, 35% to 34%. Manatee County is just south of Tampa, and is home to Bradenton (where the perpetually anemic Pittsburgh Pirates have their spring training). This is tight. It is consistent with the pre-election polling I have seen - so that is a testament to just how tight this race will be. As a point of comparison, Bush won Florida by a much improved margin in 2004 in part because of his strong showing in greater Tampa. To that point, Hillsborough has not yet reported very many returns. - JAY COST

7:39PM - The Obama camp has sent out this email: "Based on exit polling data our campaign is prepared to call the delegate count at 7 pm eastern." - BLAKE DVORAK

7:32PM - With Rudy Giuliani facing what increasingly looks like the end of his campaign, many supporters seem set to join another campaign. A fundraiser close to the Giuliani campaign tells RCP that at least six New Jersey county chairs for the former Mayor ready to jump to the McCain team, though they will wait until Giuliani drops his bid. A McCain win in New Jersey, which earlier this year changed their rules to award all the state's delegates to the primary winner, would push him that much closer to the nomination. Perhaps better for the Senator, fundraisers headed his way could help refill what are said to be empty coffers. - REID WILSON

7:25PM - Incidentally, Hillary Clinton's "victory" "thank you" rally in Davie, Florida was set to kick off about 25 minutes ago. She's at 58% of the vote right now - with less than 1% reporting, of course - TOM BEVAN

7:10PM More from Fox News exits:

* 43% voters say Crist endorsement important, 51% voted for McCain.
* Late deciders 36% McCain, 37% Romney
* Experience: 38% McCain, 38% Romney
* Seniors and Hispanics going for McCain by double digits.

I'm also hearing Fox is reporting McCain is beating Romney by 4% among voters who said the economy was the most important issue to them. UPDATE: Here's the link. That makes things very interesting. - TOM BEVAN

7:04PM As Tom notes below, the early exits look like very good signs for Mitt Romney: Lots of Florida Republicans said they care most about the economy, Cuban turnout might be lower than the 17% expected, and only 3 in ten said they're moderates. But the exits also show McCain up slightly. With so many self-described conservatives in the race, does that mean McCain mended just enough fences with the base to squeak by? - REID WILSON

6:52PM If the exits hold Giuliani is toast. Will he drop out? I think so. It's either that or face the prospect of a humiliating defeat in his home state six days later. I don't think Rudy will put himself through that. - TOM BEVAN

6:46PM In non-Florida news, another member of Congress is calling it quits. Kentucky Republican Ron Lewis is hanging up his voting card after seven full terms in the House representing the Owensboro-based district south of Louisville. Two Republicans and two Democrats face off in the May 20 primary. The district is solidly Republican -- President Bush won with 65% and 62% in 2004 and 2000 -- but it's voted Democratic in the past and gave Lewis just 55% last year. Check Politics Nation tomorrow for more on the seat. - REID WILSON

6:32PM The Romney folks should like the quick take on the exits:

*Nearly half of Florida Republican primary voters said the economy is the most important issue facing the country. Terrorism, Iraq and immigration each were picked by fewer than two in 10.

*Eight in 10 Republican primary voters were white and a little more than one in 10 were Hispanic - about half of whom were of Cuban heritage.

*About three in 10 Republican voters called themselves moderates.

6:24PM Turnout appears strong, the question is whether that benefits one candidate more than the other. You could argue it either way, I suppose, but to the extent the ballot initiatives (property tax relief and slots in Miami-Dade) draws out voters who aren't conservative ideologues, high turnout might seem to benefit John McCain slightly. - TOM BEVAN

6:20PM A note on the exit polls: While early voting has been open for weeks, the consotrium has been polling early voters for weeks, NBC's First Read points out. They've weighted the numbers, so when Panhandle polling stations close at 8 pm Eastern, the nets won't be delayed. If there is a call to be made, they will make it. Early votes, by the way, should favor Giuliani, as should some counties that always report first. Watch for Giuliani's numbers to start high and slump throughout the night. - REID WILSON

6:17PM - Some polls close in 45 minutes, but results won't be know until the rest in the Panhandle close at 8pm eastern, at which point you can start seeing them tabulated here. - TOM BEVAN

6:15PM Apparently El Rushbo encountered a glitch voting in Palm Beach County. - TOM BEVAN

6:10PM Some voters got a last minute robo call from Charlie Crist today. - TOM BEVAN

6:08PM Geraghty has latest wave of exits: McCain 34.3 percent, Romney 32.6 percent, Giuliani 15.3 percent, Huckabee 12 percent. Still a long way to go. - TOM BEVAN

6:06PM Here we go. A general look from AP exits here. - TOM BEVAN

Check in often tonight as the RCP Blog team will be bringing you the latest election updates and analysis.

With just a few hours before the polls close, the GOP candidates made their final pitches to Florida voters.

Reid Wilson wonders, "Is Florida Crucial to Romney?"

I think we can answer yes when the same question is applied to Rudy.

The House has passed the $146 billion stimulus package.

Did Obama snub Hillary at last night's State of the Union? Not according to him.

Via Ben Smith, Obama has raised $5 million since his South Carolina victory on Saturday.

Guess who Bill Clinton didn't mention while in New Jersey today.

Nancy Pelosi was "mesmerized" by the Kennedy-Obama mantle transferring yesterday.

Harry Truman's daughter, Margaret, died today in Chicago at 83.

If you ever thought to yourself, "Gee, I wonder what Hillary tries to do everyday," well, then, here you go:

Meanwhile, here's Obama's new ad, featuring North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad:

Those two ads, by the way, are running in Feb. 5 states. The Republican candidates, however, apparently haven't run any.

The following is an email I received last week from a Romney supporter:

How do you call McCain the front runner when Mitt Romney has more delegates and has won more republican votes in all the primaries?

That's a good question, one that several emailers have asked me. To be fair, I have been very cautious in my approach to McCain's candidacy. I think he faces some serious opposition in the Republican Party. Unlike previous nominees, McCain is not a consensus candidate. Instead, he has inspired a faction of the party to oppose him. And in a system like ours, factions are often able to prevent things from happening. So, they might be able to stop him.

Beyond this, I think the emailer asks a fair question. After all, this is a race to win a party nomination. This means it is about delegates. So, shouldn't they be our focus? Aren't we wrong to focus so relentlessly on who has won which states? Doesn't that obscure the true dynamics of this race?

The Orlando Sentinel is reporting that there were problems at precinct 145 in Hunter's Creek where the poll workers told voters asking for a Democratic ballot that the Democratic primary wasn't until March:

Sheneka McDonald spent 10 minutes trying to convince poll workers at the same precinct that she should have a Democratic ballot. She questioned poll workers when she was handed a Republican ballot but was told, "this is the only ballot we have."

"I said, 'How can this be the only ballot,'" McDonald recalled. "That's when the guy chimed in from the back and said the Democratic primary was in March."

Great moments in precinct history.

Elsewhere, the Sentinel reports:

Election officials noticed a four-vote discrepancy between the number of ballots signed for and the number of ballots cast at the Daytona Beach City Island early voting site. The vote count came up one vote shy on Jan. 23 and three votes shy on Jan. 26, McFall said.

The county's elections canvassing board decided Tuesday to re-feed the ballots from the City Island location. The process turned up the four lost ballots.

"Apparently the machine failed to count the four votes the first time," McFall said.

The glitch shouldn't be cause for concern, she said.

Here we go.

Gay-rights activists are upset over a McCain robo-call campaign attacking Romney. Here's the relevant portion of the call:

"Mitt Romney thinks he can fool us. He supported abortion on demand, even allowed a law mandating taxpayer-funding for abortion. He says he changed his mind, but he still hasn't changed the law. He told gay organizers in Massachusetts he would be a stronger advocate for special rights than even Ted Kennedy. Now, it's something different."

That last part is what has so angered gay-rights groups, and, according to Marc Ambinder, the campaign has pulled it as a result.

From this morning:

MIAMI, FL - Patti Solis Doyle, Howard Wolfson and Mark Penn conducted a conference call earlier today arguing the importance of Florida's vote. Asked repeatedly by skeptical members of the media why the Clinton campaign is suddenly so interested - even vested - in the idea that Florida is important, Team Clinton made a number of different points, but the central one seemed to be this: because Florida represents such a large and varied constituency, and because Florida Democrats turned out in record numbers despite being told by the national party their votes were essentially meaningless, the voters are sending a signal and deserve to be heard.

All three echoed the refrain that the Florida delegates deserve to be seated.

"We hope and we expect the Florida delegates will be seated, as well as the delegates in Michigan," Solis Doyle said ."With this level of participation we just don't believe the convention won't seat the delegates from one of the most important delegations in the country."

Moments later Mark Penn said the same thing: "Record numbers of Floridians are participating and I think they'd be stunned to learn if, in the end, their votes were not counted at the Democratic National Convention. They are an active part of the Democratic party and they have 27 electoral votes in the general election, and I think that the signal they're sending is that they fully expect this to be resolved in a way that seats their delegates."

Wolfson was even more succinct: "I can't envision circumstances in which, at the end of the day, these delegations are not seated."

The decision of the Clinton camp to aggressively push forward on the issue of seating these delegations has the potential to open new fissures and create more acrimony within an already roiling party. This is just the beginning of what could be a very dramatic - and ugly - story.

Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) is endorsing Hillary Clinton for president. In a conference call with reporters today, Waters said:

Hillary Clinton is a no-nonsense, articulate and experienced public-policy maker. ... I believe Hillary Clinton has the knowledge and experience to understand not only the needs of my constituents, but all constituents. ... Our party must be led by somebody who is capable of carrying out the dreams and aspirations of all Americans.

Clinton was also on the call, and responded to the endorsement:

I am so pleased to have Maxine Waters in this campaign with me because she is a fighter. ... People have to know you're willing to take a stand, and time and time again, that is what she's done. ... I look forward to campaigning with her in the days ahead.