On this day in 1980, in response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, President Carter recalls the U.S. ambassador in Moscow and asks the Senate to postpone negotiations on the SALT-II nuclear weapons treaty. Now for today's top stories:
"Edge in Iowa Hard to Find Among Key Groups" (Jill Lawrence, USA Today) Women, union members, and -- for the Republicans -- fiscal conservatives are divided between their parties' top choices, recent polls have found. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama fairly evenly split the women vote, while with John Edwards all three seem to be splitting the labor vote. And for the GOP, despite the hits Mike Huckabee has taken from free-market outlets like the Club for Growth, he is still even with Mitt Romney among fiscal conservatives, according to the Des Moines Register poll.
"Independent Voters May Give Obama Edge in Iowa" (Shailagh Murray and Anne Kornblut, Washington Post) All that said, Iowa looks like it will come down to who can attract more independents, and on that score, Obama is faring well. The same Des Moines Register poll that gave Obama a 7-point lead over Clinton also factors in a greater-than-average independent turnout, which breaks for Obama. The trick now for Obama is to make sure those voters -- or caucus-goers --- actually turnout.
"Romney Says Iowa, N.H. Contests Won't Settle GOP Presidential Race" (Grant Schulte, Des Moines Register) Playing the old game of expectations lowering, Mitt Romney argued that neither Iowa or New Hampshire will determine the GOP nominee. Which might be true, but Romney can't effectively lower expectations too much, since a loss in either state will be seen by one and all as heavy defeats.
"Huckabee and Consultant Form an Uneasy Alliance" (David Kirkpatrick, New York Times) A little backstory on the flubbed press conference Mike Huckabee gave the other day, during which he was supposed to unveil his "response" to attacks coming from Romney. Instead, he said he was pulling the ad, but not before he showed it to the gathered reporters. The idea for the ad came from campaign veteran Ed Rollins, whom Huckabee overruled in the final moments.
"New Survey Finds McCain, Clinton Building NH Lead" (Mark Hayward, New Hampshire Union Leader) The McCain surge in New Hampshire appears to be real, as he rose to a six-point lead over Romney in the latest Suffolk/WHDH poll. Although Romney still barely clings to a lead in the RCP Average, it makes momentum coming out of Iowa, which includes a strong third-place finish for McCain, that much more important for both candidates.
"Thompson Becomes More Aggressive in Iowa" (Ben Adler, The Politico) Despite dropping to a fourth-place tie with Ron Paul in the recent Des Moines Register Poll, Thompson is still in the running for a strong third-place finish, arguably something he has to get to keep his campaign going.
"Edwards Calls for Pullout of Troops Training Iraqis" (Michael Gordon, New York Times) The latest and perhaps last evolution of Edwards' Iraq position: This time calling for the immediate pullout of 50,000 to 60,000 troops, with the entire force withdrawn over a course of 10 months, even the units training the Iraqis. The only force Edwards would leave in country would be to protect the embassy -- about 3,500 troops.
"Will Caucus Night Attract Record Crowds?" (Whitney Woodward, Quad-City Times) The whole political world is focused on what -- at best -- a few hundred thousand Iowans decide tomorrow night. Legitimate or not that's the way it is, and the candidates -- with the exception perhaps of Edwards, who believes a low-turnout benefits his candidacy -- are doing everything they can to increase that total incrementally.
"An Epochal Battle" (Gerald Seib, Wall Street Journal) Just in case you needed a reminder of what's happening in the world of American politics right now reporter Seib's breakdown is a good place to start.
Get these and today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.
