DES MOINES - A few minutes ago I corralled Edwards adviser Joe Trippi for a brief interview.

RCP: What's your sense of where things stand right now?

TRIPPI: Right now it really is tight, any 3 of us can win it. And we feel great about where we are, but he [Edwards] is out there doing 36 hours straight with no sleep because we think that's how close this thing is.

RCP: There are rumors swirling about deals being cut one way or the other...

TRIPPI: We're sending all our people to Obama.

RCP: Right (Laughter)

TRIPPI: All of them. Every single one.

RCP: (Laughter) How big of an impact will it have?

TRIPPI: There really aren't any deals to cut this year. Last time the second tier people were getting 11-12% of the vote, and if all those people moved to one candidate that could be a big difference. This time, 1) no one in the second tier is doing anything but low single digits right now and the other thing is I think there has to be some...these are real people, these aren't like a bunch of operatives. You can't call people who have pledged, crazed for a year to be for Edwards or whoever and say 'hey, if we don't make can you support Hillary?' or whoever. There has to be some synergy there, some logic.

Basically the entire party, I think, is in revolt against the status quo, against Clinton. We have 29-30% are saying 'let's keep things the way there are' and 70% of the party is saying 'we want change' whether it's Barack Obama or Edwards fighting for change.

So it'd be almost impossible for the Clinton people to cut a deal with anybody to get their people to come to her. They're not for her. Even if they're voting for Biden there's a reason they've decided not to go with the status quo candidate and go with somebody else. So I don't think those kind of deals are going to work this time.

RCP: The Edwards campaign disputed the results of the Iowa poll. Do you buy the results at all?

TRIPPI: If 220,000 people vote, then I think the Iowa poll is probably accurate.

RCP: What are you guys projecting for turnout?

TRIPPI: Well, the most that's ever turned out in history is 125,000. If this thing is around 150,000, in that environment, we're right there, we're competitive, excellent chance to win the thing. Any number below that we're going to do really, really well.

Anybody who tells you this thing gets up to 220,000, that's some number of people who've never participated in this thing. It'd be an incredible thing to see if it happened, and more power to the candidate who pulled that off.

But I'm also having this reverse deja-vu where I remember spending a good chunk of this period 4 years ago telling every reporter that would talk to me about exactly how 220,000 people were going to turn out and vote, and if they did Howard Dean would be the next president of the United States. This time I feel a little awkward sitting here arguing that 200,000 will never show up, but I honestly don't think it's going to happen.

As much as everything I've ever done in politics would make me love to see that happen and love to see that many people get involved in the process, I deep down don't think it's going to happen. I don't know if that's my experience from last time talking, or looking at reality this time in terms of what's happening. But I just don't see it.

RCP: What -

TRIPPI: Now, if bus traffic backs up on I-80 from Illinois, there's a chance they may be able to get up to 300,000.

RCP: (Laughter) What about this argument that Iowa's not going to settle anything and it's going to be a push? If Edwards wins by a point over Obama and 2 points over Clinton, is that a push and we move on to New Hampshire?

TRIPPI: If we win, it's a huge victory for what we think is an epic fight to save the middle class. That's a big victory over big money. These candidates have raised more than a $100 million dollars, spent millions and millions more than us on television here, and have had celebrity coverage in the press.

For us to do it with $2.5 million on television, that's really simple: best candidate, best message, and literally the middle class responding and rising up and saying 'we are going to change the way Washington works - on healthcare, trade, and a lot of things that working people are just getting crushed by - are going to stand up and elect a president that is going to fight for us and we'll fight with him.

Look, if we win against these two giants - it may have supposedly been inevitable that the race would come down to the two of them - but I think what's going to happen is Iowa is going to say 'no' the Edwards candidacy is unstoppable because its fighting for the middle class.

Third place is going to be a big problem for anybody - we're not denying that - it'll be a big problem for us. We'll continue, we'll keep fighting but let's face it, we would do a lot better financially, press coverage, etc, with first or second.

But third place for her is a problem. How does Hillary Clinton - First Lady, [former] President Clinton is storming storming the state - how do they explain that they came in third? How does Barack Obama, after spending $10 million on TV here, explain how his message was so incredibly strong that he took third place here to someone who spent considerably less but made an impassioned plea to change for the middle class?

Anybody who takes third is going to have a problem. Our problems relate more to money, their problems are how do you explain it politically? How the hell do explain either of them taking third? Kerry raised $2 million a day over the internet after he won Iowa. Edwards raised $1 million a day when he took second in Iowa. For us the problem isn't so much politics, we literally need that first or that second to really give us the resources we need to push through February 5. We take first here and $2 million a day is coming in and we are going to be really competitive.

And let me tell what's going to happen to third place candidate - I've been there - the third place candidate's money dries up. That's our problem with third. It's not that he's not viable, it's not that he doesn't have a message - in your 31-29-28 scenario the problem for us isn't political. We stayed with these two giants and in that situation got nipped by a tenth of a point or something, but the reality is we need the money that comes with that first or second place finish.

And we're within range in New Hampshire. We're in the 20's now in New Hampshire, and Iowa is worth a good 10 points there. So we're very competitive and we're really happy with where we're at. Given where we've come from, we are really on the verge of threading that needle - of winning here, pushing through to a win in New Hampshire, or at least a second there, and it takes us right into South Carolina. And John Edwards won South Carolina last time after taking 2nd here and 4th in New Hampshire, so if we win here and take a second in New Hampshire, I'm pretty sure we'll do well in South Carolina.

I think somebody's going to take third a couple of times. If Barack Obama takes third twice, if she takes third twice, I think they're going to have problems.