It took them the better part of a day to respond, but the Obama campaign struck back with this effective rebuttal to Clinton's ad:
McCain On Hagee Endorsement
Posted by KYLE TRYGSTAD | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorAfter the announcement of Pastor John Hagee's endorsement of John McCain, not everyone took it as good news. Catholic League President Bill Donohue said Hagee "has waged an unrelenting war against the Catholic Church."
In response, the McCain campaign released a statement on the endorsement today:
"Yesterday, Pastor John Hagee endorsed my candidacy for president in San Antonio, Texas. However, in no way did I intend for his endorsement to suggest that I in turn agree with all of Pastor Hagee's views, which I obviously do not."I am hopeful that Catholics, Protestants and all people of faith who share my vision for the future of America will respond to our message of defending innocent life, traditional marriage, and compassion for the most vulnerable in our society."
Another Senator Endorses Obama
Posted by KYLE TRYGSTAD | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorObama received his second Senate endorsement of the week today when West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller announced his support. Former presidential candidate Chris Dodd (D-CT) endorsed Obama on Tuesday.
Rockefeller is up for re-election this year, but appears to be safe. Though the governor and both senators are all Democrats, West Virginia voted for President Bush in both 2000 and 2004.
West Virginia will hold its presidential and congressional primaries May 13.
Kudos to advertising firm Wieden & Kennedy for taking the ultimate risk: letting comedian Will Ferrell - in character as Jackie Moon from his new comedy "Semi Pro" - ad lib lines about Old Spice's new "pro strength" deodorant for an upcoming ad campaign. Here's what you get when you let Ferrell roam without a leash talking about your product:
"Now, I'm not familiar with the metric system or any other foreign language, but that's the equivalent of 300 gallons, I would guess. Hey, cauterize your sweat glands shut . . . sss-ka-owww . . . with Old Spice Pro Strength antiperspirant."
More from the Los Angeles Times piece:
[Ferrell] ad-libbed much of the material in the eight ads during a daylong shoot, signing off with such politically incorrect tag lines as "Don't smell like a turtle cage" and "The finest street-legal antiperspirant you can get outside of Mexico that's not poisonous."
Half the battle in advertising these days is to break through the clutter and avoid getting Tivoed out of existence. Will Farrell in a huge afro tossing out hilarious one liners is sure to do the trick. Whether it actually increases market share is another matter, but you've got to hand it to W&K for coming up with the idea, and to the suits at Proctor and Gamble for taking the leap.
Lord Conrad Black heads off to the slammer on Monday.
Rasmussen out with new numbers in Ohio (Feb 28, 851 Dem LV) showing Hillary Clinton's lead continuing to detiorate:
Clinton 47 (-1 vs. last poll Feb 25)
Obama 45 (+2)
Undecided 9
Clinton's lead in the RCP Average for Ohio dipped to 5.0%.
New Fox News/Opinion Dynamics surveys in Texas and Ohio (Feb 26-28). In Ohio, Fox shows Clinton with an 8-point lead:
Ohio
Clinton 46
Obama 38
Undecided 14
Overall Clinton leads by 5.5% in the RCP Average for Ohio.
In Texas, Fox shows Obama leading by three:
Texas
Obama 48
Clinton 45
Undecided 5
Obama leads by 2.4% in the RCP Average for Texas.
CTV Sticks By Story
Posted by BLAKE DVORAK | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorDespite the Obama campaign's denials, CTV, the Canadian news outlet that reported that a senior campaign official had assured the Canadian ambassador that Obama's tough talk on NAFTA was just "campaign rhetoric," isn't backing off the story:
On Wednesday, CTV reported that a senior member of Obama's campaign called the Canadian government within the last month -- saying that when Senator Obama talks about opting out of the free trade deal, the Canadian government shouldn't worry. The operative said it was just campaign rhetoric not to be taken seriously.The Obama campaign told CTV late Thursday night that no message was passed to the Canadian government that suggests that Obama does not mean what he says about opting out of NAFTA if it is not renegotiated.
However, the Obama camp did not respond to repeated questions from CTV on reports that a conversation on this matter was held between Obama's senior economic adviser -- Austan Goolsbee -- and the Canadian Consulate General in Chicago.
Earlier Thursday, the Obama campaign insisted that no conversations have taken place with any of its senior ranks and representatives of the Canadian government on the NAFTA issue. On Thursday night, CTV spoke with Goolsbee, but he refused to say whether he had such a conversation with the Canadian government office in Chicago. He also said he has been told to direct any questions to the campaign headquarters....
But on Wednesday, one of the primary sources of the story, a high-ranking member of the Canadian embassy, gave CTV more details of the call. He even provided a timeline. He has since suggested it was perhaps a miscommunication...
Sources at the highest levels of the Canadian government -- who first told CTV that a call was made from the Obama camp -- have reconfirmed their position.
What's missing here is whether Goolsbee was relating his personal opinion or the campaign's.
(h/t Geraghty)
Echoing campaign manager David Plouffe, Obama at a rally in Houston earlier today, responding to the Clinton ad:
Now before we open this up for conversation, I just want to take a moment to respond to an ad that Sen. Clinton is apparently running today that asks, "Who do you want answering the phone in the White House when it's 3 a.m. and something has happened in the world?"We've seen these ads before. They're the kind that play on peoples' fears to scare up votes.
Well it won't work this time. Because the question is not about picking up the phone. The question is -- what kind of judgment will you make when you answer? We've had a red phone moment. It was the decision to invade Iraq. And Sen. Clinton gave the wrong answer. George Bush gave the wrong answer. John McCain gave the wrong answer...
And I'll never see the threat of terrorism as a way to scare up votes, because it's a threat that should rally this country around our common enemies. That's the judgment we need at 3 a.m. And that's the judgment that I am running for president to provide.
Little State, Big Love
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorJust how crazy is the race for president on the Democratic side this year? So crazy that Rhode Island matters. Always overlooked and under appreciated, little old Rhode Island is suddenly getting big love:
Calling New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton a "world-class change maker," former President Bill Clinton offered a passionate case for his wife's presidential campaign yesterday before students and admirers at Bryant University."No state in America has been better for me or our family," Clinton said of Rhode Island. "I have tried to be there for you. I hope on March 4, you'll be there for her."
That's laying it on a bit thick, even for Bubba.
Clinton is favored to win in Rhode Island, but Obama has a local connection that is making them extra nervous: Michelle Obama's brother, Craig Robinson, is the head men's basketball coach at Brown University.
Plouffe: "Clinton Already Had Her Red Phone Moment"
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorOn a conference call with reporters, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe was asked to comment on Hillary Clinton's new ad hitting Obama on national security experience by posing the question of who voters want to answer the phone in the White House at 3 am when something terrible has happened. Plouffe responded:
"Senator Clinton has already had her red phone moment. It was a decision whether to allow George Bush to invade Iraq, and she answered affirmatively. She did not read the national intelligence estimate, so she didn't do her homework either. She still, curiously, tries to suggest that that was not a vote for war, but it most assuredly was.So this is about what you say when you answer that phone. What kind of judgment you demonstrate. Barack Obama has shown terrific judgment. He showed obviously good judgment on Iraq, showing the right judgment on what kind of diplomacy we should have. I think increasingly voters see him as someone that they believe as Commander in Chief will keep them safe in terms of the judgment he will display."
The Daily 2008 - Late Edition
Posted by BLAKE DVORAK | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorFull flights and foul weather are the excuses for today's late edition of the Daily 2008. So, who can we thank for this glorious extra day which comes just once every four years? Hail Caesar, who in 46 BC reorganized the Roman calendar and included the first "leap day," which has undergone some modifications over the years. On to today's top stories:
"Obama Cutting Into Clinton's Edge Among Superdelegates" (Michael Cooper and Sarah Wheaton, New York Times) The Obama campaign says it has won 39 superdelegates since Feb. 5, some former Clintonites.
"HRC Announces Best Fundraising Month Yet" (Ben Smith, The Politico) The good news for Clinton in an otherwise terrible month is that she managed to raise an astounding $35 million.
"Obama: The $50 Million Man" (Christi Parsons and Rick Pearson, Chicago Tribune) This is the bad news.
"Obama Accuses McCain of Flawed Economics, Pledges Relief" (Todd Gillman, Dallas Morning News) It's just good to note that in the belly of this story reporter Gillman notes this Obama line: "If you work in this country you should not be poor." That's Obamanomics for you.
"In Texas Appearance, McCain Vows to Get bin Laden" (Aman Batheja, McClatchy Newspapers) Repeating his "to the gates of Hell" line, McCain went hard after Obama not only on national security but also NAFTA.
"State's Democratic Party Braces For Lawsuit" (Jay Root, Ft. Worth Star-Telegram) Rumors sprung up last night that aides to Clinton's campaign were looking at an "imminent" lawsuit over Texas' complicated primary system. State party officials fear that if a suit is forthcoming it could delay the March 4 primary.
"Bill Would Remove Doubt on Presidential Eligibility" (Carl Hulse, New York Times) Following up on his story yesterday, reporter Hulse notes that McCain isn't worried about any constitutional barriers to his election and even that a Democratic senator Claire McCaskill has introduced a bill that would legislate away any lingering doubt. Talk about bipartisanship.
"Race Watched Round the World" (Laurie Goering, Chicago Tribune) Citizens of the world (and a certain Tribune reporter) marvel that the United States is not as racist and sexist as previously thought. Heck, they might even want to emigrate here one day.
"Survey Finds Most Don't Think McCain Too Old For Presidency" (Jennifer Harper, Washington Times) The septuagenarian breathes a sigh of relief.
Get today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.
Rhetoric A Weakness?
Posted by KYLE TRYGSTAD | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorFormer Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson writes in the Washington Post that Clinton and McCain should not use Obama's speaking acumen in attacks against him. History has shown that vocal eloquence is no weakness, and "rhetoric" was not always a four-letter word.
"Civil rights leaders possessed few weapons but eloquence -- and their words hardly came cheap. Every president eventually needs the tools of rhetoric, to stiffen national resolve in difficult times or to honor the dead unfairly taken.It is not a failure for Obama to understand and exercise this element of leadership; it is an advantage.
Some Obama critics go even further, accusing him of inducing a "creepy," "cultish" "euphoria." A candidate delivers a good stump speech, adds a dose of personal magnetism and suddenly he is a sorcerer, practicing the dark arts of demagoguery.
But Obamamania is pretty mild stuff compared with our rhetorical history."
Gerson writes that Obama is the next in a series of the country's leaders able "to rise on the swell of their own words," after Hubert Humphrey and Ronald Reagan. Should Obama be the nominee, Gerson argues, McCain should throw out any criticism of Obama's speeches, and focus on his ideology.
"Why does Obama want to fight terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan but not in Iraq? How would it advance the war on terrorism to grant al-Qaeda's fondest wish -- an untimely American retreat from the Middle East? Would Obama really devote his first year in office to a series of surrender summits with the leaders of Cuba, Iran, Venezuela and North Korea?These are serious criticisms; the argument against rhetoric is not. Obama's political weakness is that he is too liberal, not that he is too eloquent."
Everyone is buzzing about Clinton's new ad:
In response, the Obama campaign re-released its ad from October featuring General McPeak:
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby is out with the first installment of tracking polls in Texas and Ohio (Feb 26-28) which will continue through next Tuesday. In Texas, Obama holds a six point lead according to the survey:
Texas
Obama 48
Clinton42
McCain 53
Huckabee 27
Paul 11
In the RCP Averages for Texas, Obama now leads by 2.4% and McCain leads by 20.2%
In Ohio, Clinton holds a two-point lead:
Ohio
Clinton 44
Obama 42
McCain 62
Huckabee 19
Paul 8
In the RCP Average for Ohio, Clinton's lead is down to 6.2% and McCain's lead bulged to 32.0%
Why Republicans Still Have a Chance
Posted by BLAKE DVORAK | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorBarack Obama is feeling pretty sure of himself these days. Even before he has secured the nomination, Mr. Obama is spending as much time parrying John McCain's attacks as Hillary Clinton's. This week, for instance, Messrs. McCain and Obama got into it over the Iraq war and the presence of al Qaeda in Iraq, perhaps offering voters a preview of the coming fall blockbuster.
In fact, the general election could begin as early as next week if Mrs. Clinton loses the big March 4 primaries and drops out, and it could be a sizzler. A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll released this week shows Mr. McCain holding a slight lead over Mr. Obama (44% to 42%), though the result is well within the survey's margin of error.
That Mr. McCain puts up such a strong showing ought to worry Democrats, especially since the political atmospherics continue to favor their party this year. Even more worrisome, however, are the poll's internal findings, which show that although Mr. McCain is not necessarily conservatives' choice for president, he might be the best choice for Republicans.
Those troubling signs for Democrats include the following: When it comes to independent voters, Mr. McCain more than holds his own with Mr. Obama (41% to 39%); on the question of who could best manage the economy, which a plurality of respondents consider the most important issue, Mr. McCain holds an eight-point lead (42% to 34%); on the question of leadership, Mr. McCain has a six-point lead; on illegal immigration, Mr. McCain has an 11-point lead (40% to 29%); on Iraq, Mr. McCain has a 13-point lead (47% to 34%); on protecting the country from terrorism, Mr. McCain has a 37-point lead (58% to 21%); and on the question of experience, Mr. McCain has a 31-point lead (53% to 22%).
The poll's news isn't all bad for Mr. Obama. He beats his potential rival on health care (44% to 30%) and on the question of which candidate would change the way things are done in Washington (55% to 20%). The two candidates split evenly on the question of integrity and honesty -- not a bad result for Mr. McCain, considering he's a veteran politician who has haunted the corridors of power for more than two decades.
Of course Hillary Clinton once also enjoyed an edge over Mr. Obama on many of these questions. But primaries are fights for the base of the parties; general elections are a fight for the middle. At least at this early stage, Mr. McCain is in a far better position for the general election than recent electoral trends and Bush fatigue would imply.
John McCain continued his attacks today on Obama over Iraq.
Is Obama feeling the McCain heat? "We're talking two years from now before we would have combat troops out of Iraq," he said today. "The notion that this is somehow a precipitous withdrawal that I'm proposing just isn't borne out by facts." That's not a flip-flop; it's the same thing said to a different audience.
Citing the progressive and conservative label, Obama leaves liberals out in the cold.
Blame Mark Penn, says Harold Ickes. This is getting ugly.
On that NAFTA/Canada story earlier, here's the Obama campaign statement: "When Senator Obama says that he will forcefully act to make NAFTA a better deal for American workers, he means it," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton. "Both Canada and Mexico should know that, as president, Barack Obama will do what it takes to create and protect American jobs and strengthen the American economy -- that includes amending NAFTA to include labor and environmental standards."
Mike Huckabee, fighting the, well, fighting the fight.
Howard Dean: The Republican field "looks like the 1950s and talks like the 1850s." As opposed to, say, the Democratic field in 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988...and if Republicans are talking like the 1850s, when the GOP was the anti-slavery party.... this metaphor has run its course.
The news keeps getting worse for Roger Clemens: The FBI has opened an investigation on him.
Beating everyone to the punch, Ralph Nader has already chosen his running mate.
Huckabee's latest (last?) Texas ad:
Nat'l Poll: Obama Up 9
Posted by KYLE TRYGSTAD | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorA new national poll from The Pew Research Center (Feb. 20-24, 633 Dem RV, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows Obama well ahead of Clinton after a 17-point swing since the last poll.
Obama 49 (+11 vs. last poll, Jan. 30-Feb. 2)
Clinton 40 (-6)
Obama leads the RCP National Average by 7.5 points
In head-to-head matchups with McCain (1,240 RV, MoE +/- 3.5%), Pew finds both Democratic candidates would win.
Clinton 50 - McCain 45
Obama 50 - McCain 43
Clinton Raises $35M In February
Posted by KYLE TRYGSTAD | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorThe Clinton campaign announced today that it had raised $35 million in February. This is welcoming news for Clinton, whose poll numbers continue to slag in the upcoming primary states of Ohio and Texas. Some thought Clinton's fundraising could be in trouble after the candidate loaned her campaign $5 million just before Super Tuesday Feb. 5.
Reporters were invited to listen to a conference call with the campaign's finance committee today. During the call, campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said the campaign had more than doubled the $14 million it raised in January, which up until now had been its best fundraising month. He also said the campaign has raised more than $167 million since the start of the race, including $145 million in primary money.
According to McAuliffe and Clinton finance director Jonathan Mantz, the campaign's internet fundraising "exploded" after Clinton loaned it $5 million at the end of January.
"We have the resources to play in the big states coming up: Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont, and the states beyond," McAuliffe said.
"This race is, to quote a former president, 'tight as a tick,'" said strategist Harold Ickes, who recently joined the campaign. "Hillary is behind by only 93 delegates. That is just a whisker. We are confident that gap will be substantially narrowed as we go forward in this process."
Ickes also reminded listeners that there are 15 states and territories that still have not voted, and that superdelegates will play a big role in the nominating process (ed note: Ickes is a superdelegate). He said the press has been giving Obama "a pass," but the Clinton campaign expects that to end now that Obama has taken the frontrunner position.
Hillary's Failed Frame
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorThe cornerstone of Hillary Clinton's strategy over the course of the campaign has been to contrast her greatest perceived strength - experience - with the relatively thin resume of Senator Obama. Yet despite being on her fourth or fifth iteration of this message, she's clearly failed to make the case with Democratic primary voters that her experience makes her a significantly better choice than Obama.
So why has she failed? It's not because Democrats don't value experience. Indeed most polls suggest Democrats consider experience nearly as important as their desire for change, and Clinton has maintained large advantages over Obama on the question of experience throughout the primary season.
What Clinton has failed to do is to frame the experience question in a way that resonated with Democratic voters. "Ready on day one" is a catchy enough phrase, but it puts the emphasis in the wrong place by making the contrast with Obama implicit rather than explicit.
Put another way, Hillary never needed to convince Democratic voters that she was "ready to lead" - she's the most well known Democratic presidential candidate ever. She needed to convince voters that Barack Obama was not.
To do this effectively Clinton should have been reminding voters over and over that just four short years ago Barack Obama was in the Illinois state legislature (voting present, no less) and now he's running to be the leader of the free world. Put in that context, the magnitude of the jump Obama is seeking to make suddenly gains perspective, and Clinton has voters pondering exactly the question she wants: wow, is he really ready for this?
Clinton has also done a miserable job of leveraging her experience as First Lady against Obama, even allowing him to question its legitimacy on occasion. Again, it's not enough for Clinton to tell voters about her accomplishments as First Lady, but to frame them in way that makes Obama look embarrassingly small by comparison. Something like:
"Thirteen years ago, before Barack ever though about entering public life, I was challenging the Communist dictatorship in China over the issue of human rights and helping broker peace in Northern Ireland. While he was busy voting present in the Illinois state legislature, I was working to tackle serious issues across America and around the globe."
Translation: Clinton's been playing on the world stage for years. Obama's been playing in Springfield, Illinois.
The beauty of this strategy is that it's not what most people would characterize as "going negative." Clinton would certainly be demeaning Obama's experience publicly, but that's the point: to keep Democratic voters focused on the thinness of his accomplishments prior to entering the Senate.
And if Senator Obama and his campaign bristled at the framing or the tone of the comparisons, so much the better. Clinton would still have shifted the discussion to make Obama battle on her terms and her turf.
Instead, Clinton has allowed Obama to waltz through this campaign touting his experience in the Illinois state legislature as if it were on par with being in the United States Senate or even with Clinton's experience as First Lady. Without an aggressive effort by Clinton to remind Democratic voters of the quantum (or perhaps we should say "audacious") leap Obama is seeking to take, Obama has sufficiently blurred the distinctions on the question of experience and at the same time used his inspiring rhetoric to focus voters' attention elsewhere.
The problem for Clinton is she should have started framing the experience question months ago. With only a few days left until a crucial vote in Ohio and Texas that could effectively eliminate her from the race, it's probably too late.
Florida Hearts McCain
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorKeeping with recent history, Florida is going to be a key battleground this year. If Republicans want to have any chance of holding onto the White House they'll need to keep the Sunshine State in the win column. A new poll by Mason Dixon (Feb 21-24, 625 RV) shows that, at least for the moment, McCain appears to be doing just that, beating Obama and Clinton by healthy margins of 10 and 9 points, respectively:
McCain 47
Obama 37
Undecided 16
McCain 49
Clinton 40
Undecided 11
TX Poll: Obama Slips Behind Clinton
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorHow interesting. After a poll two three days ago showing Obama taking the lead in Texas, Insider Advantage has a new poll out in the Lone Star state showing (February 27, 591 Dem LV, MoE 4.0%) him falling back and Clinton retaking the lead:
Clinton 47 (+1)
Obama 43 (-4)
Undecided 10 (+3)
Obama's lead in the RCP Average for Texas is back down to 1.6%
Obama, NAFTA and Canada
Posted by BLAKE DVORAK | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorSo what's all of Obama's criticism of NAFTA worth? According to this Canadian news report, a senior adviser to the campaign assured Canada's ambassador "don't worry, it's just campaign rhetoric."
(h/t Election Central)
UPDATE: Canada is denying the whole thing.
TX and PA Polls: Obama Up In TX, Close In PA
Posted by KYLE TRYGSTAD | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorObama has pulled ahead of Clinton in a new Rasmussen poll in Texas (Feb. 27, 503 Dem LV, MoE +/- 4%). With just 5 days before the Texas primary, the three most recent polls in the state have all showed Obama with the lead.
Texas
Obama 48 (+3 vs. last poll, Feb. 24)
Clinton 44 (-2)
Undecided 8
Obama holds a 2.6-point lead in the RCP Average for Texas
In a new Pennsylvania poll by Rasmussen (Feb. 26, 820 Dem LV, MoE +/- 3%), Clinton's lead continues to dwindle, with a little less than two months before the state's April 22 primary.
Pennsylvania
Clinton 46
Obama 42
Undecided 12
Clinton holds a 9.0-point lead in the RCP Average for Pennsylvania
Buckley Remembered
Posted by BLAKE DVORAK | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorFox News' James Rosen had a opportunity to sit down with Bill Buckley not so long ago:
I think it's fair to say that if Buckley's one career regret was that he wasn't able to play the harpsichord and piano at the level of "proficiency" he sought, he came out ahead in life. I mean, the man played Carnegie Hall.
Joe Klein jumps on John McCain's comment that if we left Iraq al-Qaeda might possibly end up "taking a country:"
The sadness here is that McCain knows better. He knows the complexities of the world, and the region. But I suspect he's overplaying his Iraq hand in order to win favor with the wingnuts in his party. That is extremely unfortunate: As McCain should know better than anyone, it is extremely dishonorable for politicians to play bloody-shirt games when the nation is at war.
Don't all of Klein's gripes apply equally to Barack Obama and his promise for immediate phased withdrawal from Iraq, irrespective of the circumstances on the ground in January 2009? Presumably, Obama knows the "complexities" of the region; Obama's plan is clearly an attempt to win favor with the "wingnuts in his party"; and Obama is arguably playing more "bloody-shirt games" with the issue than McCain - especially when you consider his vote to cut off funding for the war last year.
Yet Joe's "sadness" is reserved only for John McCain. Go figure.
On this day in 1854, the Republican Party is founded in Wisconsin. On to today's top stories:
"Bloomberg Says He Won't Run but Will Be Active" (Diane Cardwell, New York Times) He's said it before, if not in so many words nor so definitively. But I think publishing an op-ed for the NYT, in which he writes "I am not -- and will not be -- a candidate for president," closes the door.
"Clash on Iraq Could Be McCain-Obama Preview" (Michael Shear and Shailagh Murray, Washington Post) Poor Hillary. The debate is already moving beyond her. The two likely -- though not equally so -- nominees got after it over Iraq and the presence of al Qaeda yesterday, with John McCain criticizing Obama's debate answers and Obama responding forcefully.
"Presidential Campaigns Joust Across Texas" (Lisa Sandberg and Alan Bernstein, Houston Chronicle) But that doesn't mean Hillary is giving up yet. With polls showing Obama taking the lead in this important primary state, husband Bill, unleashed once more, did his duty on the populist front, something quite different than the tune he was singing during his own candidacy.
"McCain's Canal Zone Birth Prompts Queries About Whether That Rules Him Out" (Carl Hulse, New York Times) Does McCain have a potential constitutional obstacle barring him from the White House because he was born outside the United States -- as opposed to being "natural born" as the Constitution says? No, he doesn't. But it's an interesting legal question nonetheless as is the question of whether Democrats try to pursue this.
"Lewis Says He's Supporting Obama" (Bob Kemper, Atlanta Journal-Constitution) Explaining his choice of Obama over Clinton, Rep. John Lewis said, "It's a movement. It's a spiritual event." (And here we thought this was just a presidential campaign.) Lewis' support is nice boost to Obama, adding yet another sought-after superdelegate, but at this stage it probably doesn't matter all that much for general voters.
"Young America May Lift Democrats, Shape Agenda" (Elizabeth Holmes, Wall Street Journal) As reporter Holmes notes, across 18 states this primary season, youth turnout made up 13% of the total vote in the Democratic races, up from 9% four years ago. It must be all that free college education Obama is offering.
"McCain Retools Immigration Stance" (Julie Davis, Associated Press) That McCain has somewhat altered his immigration position isn't necessarily a new story. That immigration will likely figure heavily in the coming election, however, and McCain's transformation a large part of it, is just one of the burgeoning undercurrent to watch.
"Clinton Links Her Fate to Economy" (Mike Glover, Associated Press) While Bill was in Texas, Hillary was in Ohio, preaching a similar economic message on which she is betting her March 4 chances.
"Insults, Apologies Fuel Obama's Rise" (Ben Smith, The Politico) Reporter Smith notes the following: "In the course of the primary campaign, and perhaps in a preview of the fall election drama, Senator Barack Obama has accepted the apologies of three United States senators, a former senator, CNN and various lower-level supporters of Senator Hillary Clinton."
Get today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.
Lewis a Leading Indicator?
Posted by KYLE TRYGSTAD | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorThe defection of Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), a leader of the civil rights movement, may be just the beginning of black supporters of Hillary Clinton switching their support to Barack Obama. In fact, a black state lawmaker and superdelegate from Texas also announced yesterday that she would no longer support Clinton.
And as Mahtesian and Cullen write in the Politico, the pressure on black officials to switch may increase as they realize not supporting Obama could be detrimental to their own political careers. Obama has regularly won large majorities of the black vote throughout the primary process, so many black pols who support Clinton not only are not supporting a black politician with a realistic chance of winning the presidency, they are supporting someone whom a majority of their constituents do not support. Always a risky move.
"I'm listening..." Ben Bernanke today said the Fed is open for further rate cuts.
"They didn't have a plan" - Leon Panetta on Clinton's troubles.
Invoking every qualifier imaginable, Jay Severin has heard Hillary will withdraw on Friday.
Maybe Hillary just can't bear to go on without the support of Rep. John Lewis...
Radio host Bill Cunningham, last seen talking about "Barack Hussein Obama," is pulling a "Coulter."
"To boldly go..." Bill says Hillary is best for Houston's space industry.
Sen. Kay Baily Hutchison puts the rumors to rest.
"Demand a recount" -- The New York Times remembers Bill Buckley's 1965 run for mayor.
The French Ambassador to the U.S. talks about the excitement among his people for the presidential race: "They want forecast and predictions." Ask, and ye shall receive.
The European Commission has fined Microsoft $1.35 billion. In response, Microsoft said it would take it off Europe's World War II tab.
Obama is hearing "Voices":
I meant to call out Greg Scoblete's piece earlier in the day, but got carried away with other business. Agree or disagree, it's a refreshingly unique and thoughtful appreciation of George Herbert Walker Bush.
Obama picked up a couple of endorsements today: Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) and Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND).
"Something is happening in America, something some of us did not see coming," said Lewis, as reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Lewis had previously been a Clinton supporter, and commented to the AJC about why he originally supported her. "I did it because I felt I had to support Mrs. Clinton because of our friendship," Lewis said. "But also I thought she was ready to lead."
Dorgan announced his support of Obama early this afternoon on a conference call with reporters. North Dakota's caucuses were held February 5.
Nat'l Tracking Poll: Obama +5
Posted by KYLE TRYGSTAD | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorIn the Gallup Tracking poll (Feb. 24-26, 1,215 V), Obama has pulled ahead with a 5 point advantage over Clinton. The two were tied at 46% yesterday.
Obama 48
Clinton 43
Obama leads the RCP National Average by 6.6 points
General Election Preview?
Posted by BLAKE DVORAK | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorJohn McCain on last night's debate and, in particular, Obama:
"I'm not embarrassed to tell you that I did not watch the Democrat debate last night," McCain said, "but I am told that Senator Obama made the statement that if Al Qaeda came back to Iraq after he withdraws -- after the American troops are withdrawn -- then he would send military troops back, if Al Qaeda established a military base in Iraq. I have some news: Al Qaeda is in Iraq. Al Qaeda, it's called Al Qaeda in Iraq, and my friends if we left they wouldn't be establishing a base, they wouldn't be establishing a base, they'd be taking a country. And I'm not going to allow that to happen my friends. I will not surrender. I will not surrender to Al Qaeda."It's pretty remarkable when Al Qaeda is in Iraq, and want to withdraw from Iraq and then say you will go back to Iraq if they have a base there. That's -- when you examine that statement it's pretty remarkable."
Obama responds:
"John McCain may like to say he wants to follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of Hell, but so far all he's done is follow George Bush into a misguided war in Iraq," he said.Obama was responding, incredulously, to McCain's suggestion that he's unaware of the presence of Al Qaeda in Iraq, which the Arizona Senator said earlier today was apparently "news" to Obama at last night's debate.
"McCain thought that he could make a clever point by saying, 'Well let me give you some news, Barack, Al Qaeda is in Iraq,' like I wasn't reading the papers, like didn't know what was going on." Obama said, leaning into his developing McCain impression.
He then described the context -- a hypothetical question from Tim Russert -- and said, "First of all, I do know Al Qaeda is in Iraq, and that's why I said we should continue to strike Al Qaeda targets."
"I have some news for John McCain," Obama continued, "That's there was no Al Qaeda in Iraq until George Bush and John McCain" began the Iraq war, he said.
"They took their eye off the people who really were responsible for 9/11," he said.
Buckle up, folks. This is just the beginning.
Hillary's latest in Texas:
Probably the most talked about highlight from last night's debate:
Many more (and longer) highlights in the Vlog.
William F. Buckley Jr. (1925-2008)
Posted by BLAKE DVORAK | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorThe New York Times is reporting WFB has died at 82. Details when they come in.
UPDATE: NRO Editor Kathryn Lopez:
I'm devastated to report that our dear friend, mentor, leader, and founder William F. Buckley Jr., died overnight in his study in Stamford, Connecticut.After year of illness, he died while at work; if he had been given a choice on how to depart this world, I suspect that would have been exactly it. At home, still devoted to the war of ideas.
As you might expect, we'll have much more to say here and in NR in the coming days and weeks and months. For now: Thank you, Bill. God bless you, now with your dear Pat. Our deepest condolences to Christopher and the rest of the Buckley family. And our fervent prayer that we continue to do WFB's life's work justice.
UPDATE: Here's the AP write-up. By the way, Hillsdale College has a database of Buckley's vast collection of writings.
PA Poll: Clinton Up 6
Posted by KYLE TRYGSTAD | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email AuthorIn a new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania (Feb. 21-25, 506 Dem LV), Clinton's 16-point lead is down to 6 points with just less than 2 months until the state's April 22 primary.
The survey also showed Obama defeating McCain in a general election matchup, 42%-40%, and Clinton defeating McCain 44%-42%.
Clinton 49 (-3 vs. last poll, Feb. 6-12)
Obama 43 (+7)
Clinton holds a 10.7-point lead in the RCP Average for Pennsylvania
On this day in 1860 Abraham Lincoln, known primarily as a "prairie politician" who scored some prominence for his debates over slavery with Stephen Douglas, delivers his Cooper Union address in New York City. The speech would relaunch Lincoln's political career and make him a candidate for the Republican nomination. On to today's top stories:
"Clinton Comes Out Swinging in Debate with Obama" (Steven Thomma, McClatchy Newspapers) If last night was to be the last debate, then Hillary and Obama went out with a bang. Once more, the two fought over their differing health care proposals and NAFTA, but managed to keep the argument mostly about the issues. It was still a good 90 minuted brawl.
"Debate Puts Hillary Clinton's Frustrations on Display" (Jim Tankersley and Christi Parsons, Chicago Tribune) It was one of the oddest moments in all the debates: "Well," Clinton said, "could I just point out that, in the last several debates, I seem to get the first question all the time? And I don't mind. You know, I'll be happy to field them, but I do find it curious. And if anybody saw 'Saturday Night Live,' you know, maybe we should ask Barack if he's comfortable and needs another pillow." Referencing SNL during a presidential debate? Clearly the Clinton team wanted to raise the media bias issue, but it came off sounding very forced and awkward.
"Cunningham Irritates McCain" (Howard Wilkinson, Cincinnati Enquirer) Following a local radio host's introduction at a rally yesterday, during which Bill Cunningham repeatedly used Obama's middle name, John McCain stepped up to


