Reader Mark L. sends through an email that is spot on in pointing out something most people seem to be missing: the crucial importance of North Carolina in determining the outcome of the Democratic primary. He writes:

I think many commentators are missing the significance of the this contest - and its potential to determine the outcome of the Democratic race.

Hillary Clinton can only win the nomination by a fundamental re-thinking of the race that allows super-delegates to move her direction despite the popular appeal of Obama and the political peril of denying the first black candidate for President the nomination.

Hillary Clinton is so far ahead in Pennsylvania that whatever the margin of her victory it will be seen as status quo - albeit a confirmation that the race goes on.

North Carolina is an ideal state for Obama: large college towns, large black population, and higher than average income for a Southern state. His lead there has been so commanding that it has been ceded to him much in the way that Penn. Has been ceded to Hillary.

But wait.

The latest (and only post-Wright) poll has the race at 1%. This is hugely significant and if supported by subsequent polls will change the dynamic of the race.

If Clinton can win three primaries in a row (Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina) she can argue that he has not won anywhere post-Wright. This will be particularly devastating if he gets below 35% of the white vote in NC.

The key is North Carolina. If he wins there he will hold on and take the nomination he has earned thus far. If he cannot win there (post-Wright), he is left to yearn for Oregon and my suspicion is it will be the beginning of a long and bloody fight that will go to the convention with the outcome muddied.

Its entirely unclear to me that the Clinton campaign understands the importance of North Carolina. If they win there, they can win the nomination. If they fail there it is over. Much like Bill set up Texas AND Ohio as the line in the sand that she was stronger for having met….the campaign would do well to (if the polls continue to show narrowing) do the same in NC.

With MI and FL off the table, she cant win if she loses there and would create real doubt in the minds of the super-delegates (the only audience that matters to her now) if he can't win yet another chance to knock her out in a state tailor made for him.